a***r
发帖数: 146 | 1 Market may rebound from here, but is the correction over? I think this is
probably just wishful thinking. The current market level is not justified
given the status of this jobless recovery in the US, the serious debt crisis
in several Europe countries, and the trend of policy tightening in emerging
economies. In the intermediate term (several months), caution is needed in
trading/investing in this market. After that, there is a good chance that
the market may try to get back to its pre-crisis l |
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 3 heartinny注意: armor出来了！
crisis
emerging
in
next
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Market may rebound from here, but is the correction over? I think this is
: probably just wishful thinking. The current market level is not justified
: given the status of this jobless recovery in the US, the serious debt crisis
: in several Europe countries, and the trend of policy tightening in emerging
: economies. In the intermediate term (several months), caution is needed in
: trading/investing in this market. After that, there is a good chance that
: the market may try to get back to its pre-crisis l
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 4 citi跳出来了说不是他们搞的。
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 不是说今天是计算机系统出错吗
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 5 LOL.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: heartinny注意: armor出来了！
:
: crisis
: emerging
: in
: next
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 6 Don't you guys do high frequency trading?
I was thinking your computers were doing that. LOL
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: citi跳出来了说不是他们搞的。
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 7 Don't you guys do high frequency trading?
I was thinking your computers were doing that. LOL
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: citi跳出来了说不是他们搞的。
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 8 The market rebounds from last year's low only because government steps in
when the private sector demands languished. But now, governments in many
parts of the world are loaded with the debt, so when the sovereign debts
have troubles, can we rely on the private sector to save the world? I don't
think so!
But "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
If I have to bet, I wouldn't bet on inflation but continuous deflationary
spiral.
Too many people's "animal spirit" (an
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Market may rebound from here, but is the correction over? I think this is
: probably just wishful thinking. The current market level is not justified
: given the status of this jobless recovery in the US, the serious debt crisis
: in several Europe countries, and the trend of policy tightening in emerging
: economies. In the intermediate term (several months), caution is needed in
: trading/investing in this market. After that, there is a good chance that
: the market may try to get back to its pre-crisis l
|
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 9 Inflation or deflation, this is a certainly a million dollar question.
The Wall Street is trying to force ECB to do what the Fed did more than a
year ago - printing money, lots of them, but ECB refused yesterday. The
market tanked today. As the debt crisis spreads wider and deeper across the
Europe, sooner or later ECB will be forced to print lots of money to buy
government bonds.
If ECB does not print lots of money, the Fed may hesitate to print more
money. However once ECB does, I bet the Fed
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: The market rebounds from last year's low only because government steps in
: when the private sector demands languished. But now, governments in many
: parts of the world are loaded with the debt, so when the sovereign debts
: have troubles, can we rely on the private sector to save the world? I don't
: think so!
: But "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
: If I have to bet, I wouldn't bet on inflation but continuous deflationary
: spiral.
: Too many people's "animal spirit" (an
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
|
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 11 ECB will certainly start QE if the market pushes them to do so. Inflating
the
debt away is more fair than asking someone like German taxpayer to pay the
bill.
So why panic?
the
The
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Inflation or deflation, this is a certainly a million dollar question.
: The Wall Street is trying to force ECB to do what the Fed did more than a
: year ago - printing money, lots of them, but ECB refused yesterday. The
: market tanked today. As the debt crisis spreads wider and deeper across the
: Europe, sooner or later ECB will be forced to print lots of money to buy
: government bonds.
: If ECB does not print lots of money, the Fed may hesitate to print more
: money. However once ECB does, I bet the Fed
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 agree with all your view
More specifically, I think
this deflationary spiral will last for a while, maybe a couple of months
inflation will take over starting from July
as a result, US market will crash starting from probably Septermber
before that, DOW would hang on its last straw as money from Euro land
could give it some boost
Gold has become an ultimate safe heaven. Under deflationary pressure, its
currency value makes it hold on its price (by comparison, sivler and ptm are
plunging). When e
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Inflation or deflation, this is a certainly a million dollar question.
: The Wall Street is trying to force ECB to do what the Fed did more than a
: year ago - printing money, lots of them, but ECB refused yesterday. The
: market tanked today. As the debt crisis spreads wider and deeper across the
: Europe, sooner or later ECB will be forced to print lots of money to buy
: government bonds.
: If ECB does not print lots of money, the Fed may hesitate to print more
: money. However once ECB does, I bet the Fed
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 13
the
Not gonna happen in any large scale. EU is a continent of savers rather than
debters. The political wind against high inflation is strong:
http://perotcharts.com/2008/05/household-saving-rates-for-selected-countries/
When inflation is strong, not only German pays, the French will have to pay
the bill as well.
That's why the Japanese tolerated 20 years of depression rather than
inflating their ways out. Because Japanese were too a nation of savers.
Only in US, you can gather the political su
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: ECB will certainly start QE if the market pushes them to do so. Inflating
: the
: debt away is more fair than asking someone like German taxpayer to pay the
: bill.
: So why panic?
:
: the
: The
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 14 It's not as certain as you said, although there is a chance.
QE and inflation is just another way to re-distribute health. It has the
same result -- savers get punished. German knows it. It can't be easily
allowed.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: ECB will certainly start QE if the market pushes them to do so. Inflating
: the
: debt away is more fair than asking someone like German taxpayer to pay the
: bill.
: So why panic?
:
: the
: The
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 15 It's not as certain as you said, although there is a chance.
QE and inflation is just another way to re-distribute health. It has the
same result -- savers get punished. German knows it. It can't be easily
allowed.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: ECB will certainly start QE if the market pushes them to do so. Inflating
: the
: debt away is more fair than asking someone like German taxpayer to pay the
: bill.
: So why panic?
:
: the
: The
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 16 Germany will have two votes this weekend
depending on the results, next week could be very bloody.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: It's not as certain as you said, although there is a chance.
: QE and inflation is just another way to re-distribute health. It has the
: same result -- savers get punished. German knows it. It can't be easily
: allowed.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 17 I personally have more concern on China than US and Euro.
What will happen if global growth slow down again? Will both Chinese stock
market and property market crash? That will be an ultimate disaster for us!! |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 18 中国就一个问题，粮食
只要粮食能解决，中国老百姓就能对付
而且中国股市也没多大，最具造反精神的农民也没什么property
!!
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I personally have more concern on China than US and Euro.
: What will happen if global growth slow down again? Will both Chinese stock
: market and property market crash? That will be an ultimate disaster for us!!
|
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | 19 I was thinking, where is armor... |
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 20 German is paying the bill already anyway.
Both are ways to re-destribut wealth,
QE and inflation is letting cash holders to pay the bill. It hurts every
saver more or less, but still dependends on their asset allocation and not
gonna let anyone take a deadly blow.
Default or debt restructure is letting bond holders and bond holders of bond
holders and employees and stockholders of bond holders, etc. to pay the
bill. This eventually hurts a very wide range of savers and non-savers, and
may crash
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: It's not as certain as you said, although there is a chance.
: QE and inflation is just another way to re-distribute health. It has the
: same result -- savers get punished. German knows it. It can't be easily
: allowed.
|
|
|
r****e
发帖数: 867 | 21 现在想买的人太多了，一时半会跌不下去。折腾半年之后jobless rate就明显改善，想
去2009年的大底再捞一笔可不容易 ：） |
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 22 Short term: We had a 10% correction so far. But the correction may not be
over. After a short-term rebounce, selling may continue. A reasonable guess
is a ~15% correction, given that the market has rallied so much since March
2009.
Long term: We have probably seen this year's market high. The market will
then try to go back up in 2011 and will probably surpass this year's high.
But I am afraid the highly-anticipated bull market will fail terribly in
2012.
crisis
emerging
in
next
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Market may rebound from here, but is the correction over? I think this is
: probably just wishful thinking. The current market level is not justified
: given the status of this jobless recovery in the US, the serious debt crisis
: in several Europe countries, and the trend of policy tightening in emerging
: economies. In the intermediate term (several months), caution is needed in
: trading/investing in this market. After that, there is a good chance that
: the market may try to get back to its pre-crisis l
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
s**********d
发帖数: 36899 | |
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 25 The correction may not be over, there could be another 50-70 points more to
go on the SP500. But be ready for an intermediate-term rebound in the next
couple of weeks.
guess
March
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Short term: We had a 10% correction so far. But the correction may not be
: over. After a short-term rebounce, selling may continue. A reasonable guess
: is a ~15% correction, given that the market has rallied so much since March
: 2009.
: Long term: We have probably seen this year's market high. The market will
: then try to go back up in 2011 and will probably surpass this year's high.
: But I am afraid the highly-anticipated bull market will fail terribly in
: 2012.
:
: crisis
|
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 26 The news from the G20 meeting is quite negative, wait to see the market tank
in the next week.
to
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: The correction may not be over, there could be another 50-70 points more to
: go on the SP500. But be ready for an intermediate-term rebound in the next
: couple of weeks.
:
: guess
: March
|
f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 27 Does this G-20 meeting mark the end of global coordination for QE? What IMF will do, what US will do? ...
tank
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: The news from the G20 meeting is quite negative, wait to see the market tank
: in the next week.
:
: to
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 28 already discounted
tank
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: The news from the G20 meeting is quite negative, wait to see the market tank
: in the next week.
:
: to
|
