p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
So what economy recovery are we talking about? Just a bunch of people
changing paper on a bunch of shabby apartments in Beijing?
No one ever thinks that a rising housing price, is the most unproductive
use of capital. Therefore it hurts the long-term competitive strength of
PRC?
Responding to this article:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/33218265.html
But I don't like posting on stock board. | s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 Housing, in a general concept, is the second most important demand human
being has, only after food. So you cannot simply say it's unproductive
when the capital goes into housing market.
I admit that the housing market in big cities of China is definitely
over-heated though.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
: So what economy recovery are we talking about? Just a bunch of people
: changing paper on a bunch of shabby apartments in Beijing?
: No one ever thinks that a rising housing price, is the most unproductive
: use of capital. Therefore it hurts the long-term competitive strength of
: PRC?
: Responding to this article:
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/33218265.html
: But I don't like posting on stock board.
| a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 3 Quite frankly, I don't think it's only about big cities
If you look into the housing price in small cities in the east, it's way mor
e crazy than beijing and shanghai in terms of price / income
So it's quite an illusion that the housing problem in China is only local. A
ccording to my investigation, it's very widespread.
Even for a city like Chengdu, the current housing price is hard to say reaso
nable, but you may have different opinions.
Hunan as a provinance may be ok.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Housing, in a general concept, is the second most important demand human
: being has, only after food. So you cannot simply say it's unproductive
: when the capital goes into housing market.
: I admit that the housing market in big cities of China is definitely
: over-heated though.
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 4
Yes and no. Most people already has housing to begin with in China. So that
demand is partially met already. The unmet demand is the kind of supply that
the market has v.s. what peopel want.
What drives behind the rapid rising housing market is that the communist
party used to have very strict policy with "hu kou" that keeps people away
from the ability to move. Yet, once the reform begins, according to
Professor Lu Dadao, president of the Geographical Society of China (GSC),
China's urbanization took 22 years to increase to 39.1% from 17.9%. It took
Britain 120 years, the US, 80 years, and Japan more than 30 years to
accomplish this.
The housing construction in the urban area couldn't be kept up. Therefore
capital went into housing not for new construction, but to bidding up
existing housing's price and that's a productive use.
Although some claims that Chinese urbanization will increase to 70% in the
future (from roughly 50% at the moment, which is the world average), I think
if it did happen. It is not because of the productivity growth in rural
areas as the developed countries, but it's a result of the government policy
that hurts the rural population. This is unsustainable...for the political
system and the society in general.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Housing, in a general concept, is the second most important demand human
: being has, only after food. So you cannot simply say it's unproductive
: when the capital goes into housing market.
: I admit that the housing market in big cities of China is definitely
: over-heated though.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 5 As long as the apartments are occupied, building is productive. Human
beings are constantly moving during the history, rural to urban, urban
to rural. Urbanlization reflects changing in social structure and
industrial structure. I don't think itself is anything wrong. If
urbanlization increases the productivity, then it has to be done.
For a simple example, if a person can produce 10 (whatever the unit is)
a month in his rural home, but he can produce 50 in a city, why don't
spend 20 a month to build a home for him in the city and let him move?
that
that
took
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
:
: Yes and no. Most people already has housing to begin with in China. So that
: demand is partially met already. The unmet demand is the kind of supply that
: the market has v.s. what peopel want.
: What drives behind the rapid rising housing market is that the communist
: party used to have very strict policy with "hu kou" that keeps people away
: from the ability to move. Yet, once the reform begins, according to
: Professor Lu Dadao, president of the Geographical Society of China (GSC),
: China's urbanization took 22 years to increase to 39.1% from 17.9%. It took
: Britain 120 years, the US, 80 years, and Japan more than 30 years to
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 6 It's not about housing construction capability but about the monopoly on
land supply and building privileges. China has the massive infrastructure
constructure capability to meet the demand, but people are not allowed to
trade and build on the unused or under-utilized land to meet the demand.
that
that
took
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
:
: Yes and no. Most people already has housing to begin with in China. So that
: demand is partially met already. The unmet demand is the kind of supply that
: the market has v.s. what peopel want.
: What drives behind the rapid rising housing market is that the communist
: party used to have very strict policy with "hu kou" that keeps people away
: from the ability to move. Yet, once the reform begins, according to
: Professor Lu Dadao, president of the Geographical Society of China (GSC),
: China's urbanization took 22 years to increase to 39.1% from 17.9%. It took
: Britain 120 years, the US, 80 years, and Japan more than 30 years to
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 7 This is circular argument. They are more productive in the urban areas
precisely because the party's policy limit their productivity in the rural
area (i.e. not allowed to trade lands, etc).
I feel it is unsustainable because the wealth-divide between the urban and
rural is not passable anymore because the sky-rocketing housing market in
big cities. The rural population can not get into upper class through
education anymore because even with PhD education, they can not earn enough
to buy a house in Beijng or Shanghai.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: As long as the apartments are occupied, building is productive. Human
: beings are constantly moving during the history, rural to urban, urban
: to rural. Urbanlization reflects changing in social structure and
: industrial structure. I don't think itself is anything wrong. If
: urbanlization increases the productivity, then it has to be done.
: For a simple example, if a person can produce 10 (whatever the unit is)
: a month in his rural home, but he can produce 50 in a city, why don't
: spend 20 a month to build a home for him in the city and let him move?
:
: that
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