c******n
发帖数: 16403 | |
r***e
发帖数: 2539 | 2 今天不是放假吗？
【在 c******n 的大作中提到】
: 出啥事体？ 以前不都是波动很明显
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c******n
发帖数: 16403 | 3 放假就应该全部平直， 但还是有点变动。
【在 r***e 的大作中提到】
: 今天不是放假吗？
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 4 银子我考虑要放手了，报道说老头老太太都把家里的银烛台翻出来卖了。
【在 c******n 的大作中提到】
: 出啥事体？ 以前不都是波动很明显
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c******n
发帖数: 16403 | 5 我不敢入了， 等着他崩一下我再考虑
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 银子我考虑要放手了，报道说老头老太太都把家里的银烛台翻出来卖了。
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 6 I'm not saying anyone should buy at this point as I do think it indeed
went up too fast lately, but this is actually a bullish sign.
When average Joes sell, you buy.
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 银子我考虑要放手了，报道说老头老太太都把家里的银烛台翻出来卖了。
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 7 How do you know you are not average Joe?
So the statement will go to:
When average Joe buy, you sell.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: I'm not saying anyone should buy at this point as I do think it indeed
: went up too fast lately, but this is actually a bullish sign.
: When average Joes sell, you buy.
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l****f
发帖数: 332 | 8 银子离泡沫还早着呐
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 银子我考虑要放手了，报道说老头老太太都把家里的银烛台翻出来卖了。
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 9 我也没说泡沫，但是总不可能一条直线直奔200不带泄气的吧。
好吧，这么说吧。我是这里众人b4的数波来着:)
【在 l****f 的大作中提到】
: 银子离泡沫还早着呐
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 10 short it ....
market is overpriced
the best way is to earn the sliver/gold spread.
long gold short silver
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 银子我考虑要放手了，报道说老头老太太都把家里的银烛台翻出来卖了。
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|
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 11 Date/Action/Reason
4/25 long GLD short SVL to earn spread but relatively hedge some precious me
tal uptrend risk, 当时 gold 1500, sliver 接近50, G/S=30，严重失衡, 银子超买，
目标是G/S到40,
4/26 GLD -1% SVL -5%, cash profit and close position. Long UGL (2x GLD) Lon
g ZSL (2x short SLV). 趋势明朗，double down
4/27 UGL + 4% ZSL -16% 账户血淋淋的一天，银子再次冲击50大关，分析倾向于是bul
l trap, 大崩盘的前兆，但资金投入和风险都已经太大，没胆量再追加。
4/28-29 UGL+6% ZSL +/- 1%, 银子在50下方多空激烈交战， 金子倒是稳步上涨。 no
action,静观其变，乐享其成。
5/2-4 UGL -6% ZSL +40%, 银子崩盘，连续3天大幅下挫到39， G/S 接近40了， 逐步
close position. 最后拿profit的零头买 OTM call SLV 5/21 $41, 感觉银子多头憋坏
了，应该有一个小反弹，放个小地雷看看有没有惊喜。
total return +25%, 如果今年我就不active investment而买大盘index.应该年底way
outperform market了吧，呵呵。
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: short it ....
: market is overpriced
: the best way is to earn the sliver/gold spread.
: long gold short silver
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 Yes, you'll beat the index this year.
But, your method (high risk and high volatility) is not repeatable.
Keep executing this strategy will eventually even out your luck, or
only leave you a little bit of winning edge.
There are unlucky guys out there who did the opposite as you did and
lost 25% in a few days too. What should they do?
way
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: Date/Action/Reason
: 4/25 long GLD short SVL to earn spread but relatively hedge some precious me
: tal uptrend risk, 当时 gold 1500, sliver 接近50, G/S=30，严重失衡, 银子超买，
: 目标是G/S到40,
: 4/26 GLD -1% SVL -5%, cash profit and close position. Long UGL (2x GLD) Lon
: g ZSL (2x short SLV). 趋势明朗，double down
: 4/27 UGL + 4% ZSL -16% 账户血淋淋的一天，银子再次冲击50大关，分析倾向于是bul
: l trap, 大崩盘的前兆，但资金投入和风险都已经太大，没胆量再追加。
: 4/28-29 UGL+6% ZSL +/- 1%, 银子在50下方多空激烈交战， 金子倒是稳步上涨。 no
: action,静观其变，乐享其成。
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 13 life is boring, sometime I need to do some exciting investment (i.e. high ri
sk and vol).
but thank you for reminding me. I might not want to do this
kind of risky stragegy for a while. It is a very rare event
to see such a huge spread and overpriced commodity. I would be very regretfu
l if I had not taken the advantage.
For those did the opposite, just same advice you give me above. And also, do
n't take more risk than you can survive.
Every investment I make, I consider the worst scenario first.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Yes, you'll beat the index this year.
: But, your method (high risk and high volatility) is not repeatable.
: Keep executing this strategy will eventually even out your luck, or
: only leave you a little bit of winning edge.
: There are unlucky guys out there who did the opposite as you did and
: lost 25% in a few days too. What should they do?
:
: way
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T*******t
发帖数: 9274 | 14 admire Ken DD....
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Yes, you'll beat the index this year.
: But, your method (high risk and high volatility) is not repeatable.
: Keep executing this strategy will eventually even out your luck, or
: only leave you a little bit of winning edge.
: There are unlucky guys out there who did the opposite as you did and
: lost 25% in a few days too. What should they do?
:
: way
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 15 其实吧，我老在快一个月前就埋伏了一些July SLV $35 put，今天终于4x了。
这些短期的操作不应该在投资版讨论，没意思，属于赌博不是投资。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Yes, you'll beat the index this year.
: But, your method (high risk and high volatility) is not repeatable.
: Keep executing this strategy will eventually even out your luck, or
: only leave you a little bit of winning edge.
: There are unlucky guys out there who did the opposite as you did and
: lost 25% in a few days too. What should they do?
:
: way
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s***s
发帖数: 4329 | 16 哦你也开始搞杠杆啦
小心哦
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 其实吧，我老在快一个月前就埋伏了一些July SLV $35 put，今天终于4x了。
: 这些短期的操作不应该在投资版讨论，没意思，属于赌博不是投资。
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 17 都是赌博。
真正的投资是巴菲特那样赤膊上阵，真刀真枪管理企业的。
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 其实吧，我老在快一个月前就埋伏了一些July SLV $35 put，今天终于4x了。
: 这些短期的操作不应该在投资版讨论，没意思，属于赌博不是投资。
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 18 partial agree,
我在投资的时候， 买了金银，就因为金银risky, 就被称为赌博
可是我还有投资buffett的基金， 是不是应该被称为办实业啊
其实不管赌博或者投资或者办实业，都是风险回报的均衡，所以
形式工具途径都不是很重要，重要就是要在风险控制范围内尽可能最大化回报 (sharp
ratio).
如果不是抢银行回报高，风险更高，大家都去抢银行了，还赌博投资办什么事业啊
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 都是赌博。
: 真正的投资是巴菲特那样赤膊上阵，真刀真枪管理企业的。
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