V**5
发帖数: 515 | 1 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
告知合适版面。 |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 2 the closest thing to what you want is probably TIPS (Treasury Inflation-
Protected Securities). Google it up to learn how it works. In theory it
should beat inflation consistently. Problem is the history of TIPS is
relatively short. It is not time-tested, especially in a rising interest
rate
environment. In my opinion, the best way to beat inflation is to buy and
hold a balanced portfolio with stocks, bonds (including TIPS), and maybe
some gold. It is not a guarantee to beat inflation at any given time, but
will be ahead of inflation over a long period of time.
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 3 Thanks for reply. I have ETF TIP in my mostly cash portfolio. I know
there isn't guaranteed return in and out of all circumstances, but since my
requirement is very modest, maybe there are some stable and reliable
investments. Just wonder if so called indexed annuity will do the work. As
matter of fact the social security is the best indexed annuity in a sense,
so is there an alternative ?
By the way, I don't mean to beat inflation instantly, just say by month.
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: the closest thing to what you want is probably TIPS (Treasury Inflation-
: Protected Securities). Google it up to learn how it works. In theory it
: should beat inflation consistently. Problem is the history of TIPS is
: relatively short. It is not time-tested, especially in a rising interest
: rate
: environment. In my opinion, the best way to beat inflation is to buy and
: hold a balanced portfolio with stocks, bonds (including TIPS), and maybe
: some gold. It is not a guarantee to beat inflation at any given time, but
: will be ahead of inflation over a long period of time.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 4 You need equity in your portfolio to beat inflation, but it's quite volatile
and requires you to extend your investment horizon to many years. Month-by-
month variations are mostly noise imho.
my
As
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for reply. I have ETF TIP in my mostly cash portfolio. I know
: there isn't guaranteed return in and out of all circumstances, but since my
: requirement is very modest, maybe there are some stable and reliable
: investments. Just wonder if so called indexed annuity will do the work. As
: matter of fact the social security is the best indexed annuity in a sense,
: so is there an alternative ?
: By the way, I don't mean to beat inflation instantly, just say by month.
|
w*****i
发帖数: 57 | 5 如果我们把通胀定位在3%左右，那么你所要求的return应该在4-5%左右。
你的投资时间长度是长期的话。
书本上会告诉你是stock 或是Mutual fund。但是书本上还说这不是Garantee的。
实际生活中目前市场上的10年以上 Municipal Bonds 如 NJ, CA, Peninsular,的
interest可以达到这一标准4-5% 。
不过需要注意的是如果一旦加息这种长期的bond的YTM可能会下降。
另外，还有银行的structure products, 也会大致达到4-5%的回报，而且是在保本的情
况下。
年金不用考虑了，应为就算是非常幸运被你找到一个把所有费用都去掉的成长还能达到
10%的年金。你通常会需要30-35年的时间来分享这个年金的所有收益。实际上你每年的
收益只有1%左右。 |
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 6 感谢楼上两位的回答。我知道所谓的高回报与高动荡终是相连的，没有马儿跑又不吃草
这种事。不过我的要求应当是极低，如此低的一个要求如果在理论上都达不到，这是一
个令人思考的问题。我知道有许多人喜欢动荡的市场，但是也有许多人因为这样那样的
理由不喜欢动荡的市场，在他们看来，无疑于逼上梁山。实际上，喜欢动荡市场的人，
最后多数人没有成功，好像有这个说法，8020的比例。 |
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 7 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 感谢楼上两位的回答。我知道所谓的高回报与高动荡终是相连的，没有马儿跑又不吃草
: 这种事。不过我的要求应当是极低，如此低的一个要求如果在理论上都达不到，这是一
: 个令人思考的问题。我知道有许多人喜欢动荡的市场，但是也有许多人因为这样那样的
: 理由不喜欢动荡的市场，在他们看来，无疑于逼上梁山。实际上，喜欢动荡市场的人，
: 最后多数人没有成功，好像有这个说法，8020的比例。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 8 谢谢回答。与具体因素无关，我的问题可以只是个理论挑战，只要跑过全国的CPI 就行
。是否市场经济历史上过去没有这种先例，抑或这是当前的“特色”？
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
: 实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
: 计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
: 我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
: 投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
: 你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
|
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 9 Can you clarify what is your 长期?
Also, do you need liquidity (meaning can access to the funds anytime during
this 长期 or can wait till the end of this 长期? |
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 10 这个主因是经济危机后联储压低利率。
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 感谢楼上两位的回答。我知道所谓的高回报与高动荡终是相连的，没有马儿跑又不吃草
: 这种事。不过我的要求应当是极低，如此低的一个要求如果在理论上都达不到，这是一
: 个令人思考的问题。我知道有许多人喜欢动荡的市场，但是也有许多人因为这样那样的
: 理由不喜欢动荡的市场，在他们看来，无疑于逼上梁山。实际上，喜欢动荡市场的人，
: 最后多数人没有成功，好像有这个说法，8020的比例。
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 11 10y treasury yield is now 2.21%. To beat an average inflation rate of 3%,
you are going to take on some form of risk, one way or another. There is no
free lunch. |
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 12 Long term means, so to speak, investment curve and inflation curve are
regression identical in shape but differed by small positive spread.
Second question is related to first question, if we do find such investment
instrument, Liguidity isn't an issue, because when we take away small
portion of it, say 3 or 4% , it should not interupt the regression.
during
【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
: Can you clarify what is your 长期?
: Also, do you need liquidity (meaning can access to the funds anytime during
: this 长期 or can wait till the end of this 长期?
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 13 I read in a post that historically 10 year treasury was beating CPI, if that
is true, current situation is an odd case, but unfortunately we are here,
so this is a "特色”.
"Since 1947,headline CPI recorded an average year-over-year increase of 4.39
%, whilethe 10-year note averaged 6.16%, implying that the yield on the 10-
year note traded at an average premium of 1.77% over CPI during that entire
66-year period. "
no
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: 10y treasury yield is now 2.21%. To beat an average inflation rate of 3%,
: you are going to take on some form of risk, one way or another. There is no
: free lunch.
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 14 totally agree
另外楼主要求的是稳定的超过通胀，我不清楚这个稳定是什么意思， 如果是要求每年
都跑赢通胀，言外之意是要有相当的liquidity, 如redsim说的，这可不大容易。一个
股票和债卷的组合长期下来annualized return 超过通胀是可行的，但这不等于每年都
能赢过通胀。如果想每年跑赢通胀，TIPS是最有可能的，但也没法保证。
所以楼主应该clarify稳定是什么意思。
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
: 实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
: 计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
: 我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
: 投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
: 你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 15 你的判断看来是对的，我们处于非常时期。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 这个主因是经济危机后联储压低利率。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 16 请看 #12 的回答。
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: totally agree
: 另外楼主要求的是稳定的超过通胀，我不清楚这个稳定是什么意思， 如果是要求每年
: 都跑赢通胀，言外之意是要有相当的liquidity, 如redsim说的，这可不大容易。一个
: 股票和债卷的组合长期下来annualized return 超过通胀是可行的，但这不等于每年都
: 能赢过通胀。如果想每年跑赢通胀，TIPS是最有可能的，但也没法保证。
: 所以楼主应该clarify稳定是什么意思。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 17 Lending Club。
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
l*******r
发帖数: 328 | 18 check out savings I bonds. the interest rate is adjusted based on inflation
. however, the current inflation rate is negative. there is no point to buy
now. |
l*********u
发帖数: 19053 | 19 存定期，国库券，中国的
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 20 TIP is one of the rare insurance that you may buy it cheaper after effect. |
|
|
b*****o
发帖数: 240 | 21 还有一种FUND大概可以满足你的要求，就是ALTERNATIVE MARKET NEUTRAL FUND。这种
fund 几乎没有MARKET RISK。LONG TIME 应该可以BEAT INFLATION. 当然不能保证每年
都BEAT。缺点就是费用一般比较高。 |
b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 22 同意。长期稳定无风险的年收益5%，可不容易。
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
: 实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
: 计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
: 我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
: 投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
: 你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
|
b******y
发帖数: 1684 | 23 for high net-worth individuals, NNN commercial property.
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 24 30 year TIPS currently yields 0.94% real on the secondary market. That's 1%
over inflation.
It's the best you can do.
Asking for more is not "a small request." Why should you get more from the
economy than you put in, on a year-on-year basis? Today the world is running
a capital surplus. Unless you invest in some capital constraint projects,
there is nothing for you on the open market for free. |
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 25 是的， 楼主这不是个small ask，起码对大部分人来说。
我刚查了下fixed annuity, for 5-year locked period, the guaranteed rate is 2.
75%. If you want liquidity (some withdrawals during the 5-year period), the
guaranteed rate will take a little bit hit.
In short, trade off is a reality in the investment world. |
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 26 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
告知合适版面。 |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 27 the closest thing to what you want is probably TIPS (Treasury Inflation-
Protected Securities). Google it up to learn how it works. In theory it
should beat inflation consistently. Problem is the history of TIPS is
relatively short. It is not time-tested, especially in a rising interest
rate
environment. In my opinion, the best way to beat inflation is to buy and
hold a balanced portfolio with stocks, bonds (including TIPS), and maybe
some gold. It is not a guarantee to beat inflation at any given time, but
will be ahead of inflation over a long period of time.
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 28 Thanks for reply. I have ETF TIP in my mostly cash portfolio. I know
there isn't guaranteed return in and out of all circumstances, but since my
requirement is very modest, maybe there are some stable and reliable
investments. Just wonder if so called indexed annuity will do the work. As
matter of fact the social security is the best indexed annuity in a sense,
so is there an alternative ?
By the way, I don't mean to beat inflation instantly, just say by month.
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: the closest thing to what you want is probably TIPS (Treasury Inflation-
: Protected Securities). Google it up to learn how it works. In theory it
: should beat inflation consistently. Problem is the history of TIPS is
: relatively short. It is not time-tested, especially in a rising interest
: rate
: environment. In my opinion, the best way to beat inflation is to buy and
: hold a balanced portfolio with stocks, bonds (including TIPS), and maybe
: some gold. It is not a guarantee to beat inflation at any given time, but
: will be ahead of inflation over a long period of time.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 29 You need equity in your portfolio to beat inflation, but it's quite volatile
and requires you to extend your investment horizon to many years. Month-by-
month variations are mostly noise imho.
my
As
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for reply. I have ETF TIP in my mostly cash portfolio. I know
: there isn't guaranteed return in and out of all circumstances, but since my
: requirement is very modest, maybe there are some stable and reliable
: investments. Just wonder if so called indexed annuity will do the work. As
: matter of fact the social security is the best indexed annuity in a sense,
: so is there an alternative ?
: By the way, I don't mean to beat inflation instantly, just say by month.
|
w*****i
发帖数: 57 | 30 如果我们把通胀定位在3%左右，那么你所要求的return应该在4-5%左右。
你的投资时间长度是长期的话。
书本上会告诉你是stock 或是Mutual fund。但是书本上还说这不是Garantee的。
实际生活中目前市场上的10年以上 Municipal Bonds 如 NJ, CA, Peninsular,的
interest可以达到这一标准4-5% 。
不过需要注意的是如果一旦加息这种长期的bond的YTM可能会下降。
另外，还有银行的structure products, 也会大致达到4-5%的回报，而且是在保本的情
况下。
年金不用考虑了，应为就算是非常幸运被你找到一个把所有费用都去掉的成长还能达到
10%的年金。你通常会需要30-35年的时间来分享这个年金的所有收益。实际上你每年的
收益只有1%左右。 |
|
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 31 感谢楼上两位的回答。我知道所谓的高回报与高动荡终是相连的，没有马儿跑又不吃草
这种事。不过我的要求应当是极低，如此低的一个要求如果在理论上都达不到，这是一
个令人思考的问题。我知道有许多人喜欢动荡的市场，但是也有许多人因为这样那样的
理由不喜欢动荡的市场，在他们看来，无疑于逼上梁山。实际上，喜欢动荡市场的人，
最后多数人没有成功，好像有这个说法，8020的比例。 |
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 32 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 感谢楼上两位的回答。我知道所谓的高回报与高动荡终是相连的，没有马儿跑又不吃草
: 这种事。不过我的要求应当是极低，如此低的一个要求如果在理论上都达不到，这是一
: 个令人思考的问题。我知道有许多人喜欢动荡的市场，但是也有许多人因为这样那样的
: 理由不喜欢动荡的市场，在他们看来，无疑于逼上梁山。实际上，喜欢动荡市场的人，
: 最后多数人没有成功，好像有这个说法，8020的比例。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 33 谢谢回答。与具体因素无关，我的问题可以只是个理论挑战，只要跑过全国的CPI 就行
。是否市场经济历史上过去没有这种先例，抑或这是当前的“特色”？
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
: 实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
: 计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
: 我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
: 投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
: 你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
|
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 34 Can you clarify what is your 长期?
Also, do you need liquidity (meaning can access to the funds anytime during
this 长期 or can wait till the end of this 长期? |
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 35 这个主因是经济危机后联储压低利率。
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 感谢楼上两位的回答。我知道所谓的高回报与高动荡终是相连的，没有马儿跑又不吃草
: 这种事。不过我的要求应当是极低，如此低的一个要求如果在理论上都达不到，这是一
: 个令人思考的问题。我知道有许多人喜欢动荡的市场，但是也有许多人因为这样那样的
: 理由不喜欢动荡的市场，在他们看来，无疑于逼上梁山。实际上，喜欢动荡市场的人，
: 最后多数人没有成功，好像有这个说法，8020的比例。
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 36 10y treasury yield is now 2.21%. To beat an average inflation rate of 3%,
you are going to take on some form of risk, one way or another. There is no
free lunch. |
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 37 Long term means, so to speak, investment curve and inflation curve are
regression identical in shape but differed by small positive spread.
Second question is related to first question, if we do find such investment
instrument, Liguidity isn't an issue, because when we take away small
portion of it, say 3 or 4% , it should not interupt the regression.
during
【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
: Can you clarify what is your 长期?
: Also, do you need liquidity (meaning can access to the funds anytime during
: this 长期 or can wait till the end of this 长期?
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 38 I read in a post that historically 10 year treasury was beating CPI, if that
is true, current situation is an odd case, but unfortunately we are here,
so this is a "特色”.
"Since 1947,headline CPI recorded an average year-over-year increase of 4.39
%, whilethe 10-year note averaged 6.16%, implying that the yield on the 10-
year note traded at an average premium of 1.77% over CPI during that entire
66-year period. "
no
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: 10y treasury yield is now 2.21%. To beat an average inflation rate of 3%,
: you are going to take on some form of risk, one way or another. There is no
: free lunch.
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 39 totally agree
另外楼主要求的是稳定的超过通胀，我不清楚这个稳定是什么意思， 如果是要求每年
都跑赢通胀，言外之意是要有相当的liquidity, 如redsim说的，这可不大容易。一个
股票和债卷的组合长期下来annualized return 超过通胀是可行的，但这不等于每年都
能赢过通胀。如果想每年跑赢通胀，TIPS是最有可能的，但也没法保证。
所以楼主应该clarify稳定是什么意思。
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
: 实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
: 计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
: 我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
: 投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
: 你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 40 你的判断看来是对的，我们处于非常时期。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 这个主因是经济危机后联储压低利率。
|
|
|
V**5
发帖数: 515 | 41 请看 #12 的回答。
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: totally agree
: 另外楼主要求的是稳定的超过通胀，我不清楚这个稳定是什么意思， 如果是要求每年
: 都跑赢通胀，言外之意是要有相当的liquidity, 如redsim说的，这可不大容易。一个
: 股票和债卷的组合长期下来annualized return 超过通胀是可行的，但这不等于每年都
: 能赢过通胀。如果想每年跑赢通胀，TIPS是最有可能的，但也没法保证。
: 所以楼主应该clarify稳定是什么意思。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 42 Lending Club。
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
l*******r
发帖数: 328 | 43 check out savings I bonds. the interest rate is adjusted based on inflation
. however, the current inflation rate is negative. there is no point to buy
now. |
l*********u
发帖数: 19053 | 44 存定期，国库券，中国的
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 45 TIP is one of the rare insurance that you may buy it cheaper after effect. |
b*****o
发帖数: 240 | 46 还有一种FUND大概可以满足你的要求，就是ALTERNATIVE MARKET NEUTRAL FUND。这种
fund 几乎没有MARKET RISK。LONG TIME 应该可以BEAT INFLATION. 当然不能保证每年
都BEAT。缺点就是费用一般比较高。 |
b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 47 同意。长期稳定无风险的年收益5%，可不容易。
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人并不认为你要稳定跑赢通胀1-2%的要求是“极低”的，特别是我觉得这个“有效
: 实际通胀率”其实是因人而异的，比如与你的消费习惯和所在城市相关，全国范围的统
: 计数据只具有有限的参考意义。
: 我的建议是不要刻意追求找到一个所谓的低风险稳收益的理财产品然后把大部分资产都
: 投进去，而应该通过资产配置组合、分散风险和收益，来实现total return达到或超过
: 你的要求。从资产配置组合的角度来说，长期来看达到你的想要的收益是比较容易的。
|
b******y
发帖数: 1684 | 48 for high net-worth individuals, NNN commercial property.
【在 V**5 的大作中提到】
: 也许这个可以称为Fixed Income产品？各位有无建议？如果这个问题在此版不合宜，请
: 告知合适版面。
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 49 30 year TIPS currently yields 0.94% real on the secondary market. That's 1%
over inflation.
It's the best you can do.
Asking for more is not "a small request." Why should you get more from the
economy than you put in, on a year-on-year basis? Today the world is running
a capital surplus. Unless you invest in some capital constraint projects,
there is nothing for you on the open market for free. |
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 50 是的， 楼主这不是个small ask，起码对大部分人来说。
我刚查了下fixed annuity, for 5-year locked period, the guaranteed rate is 2.
75%. If you want liquidity (some withdrawals during the 5-year period), the
guaranteed rate will take a little bit hit.
In short, trade off is a reality in the investment world. |
|
|
o*****a
发帖数: 6401 | 51 structured products，也就是靠equity investment赚钱，在下行周期也不行
【在 w*****i 的大作中提到】
: 如果我们把通胀定位在3%左右，那么你所要求的return应该在4-5%左右。
: 你的投资时间长度是长期的话。
: 书本上会告诉你是stock 或是Mutual fund。但是书本上还说这不是Garantee的。
: 实际生活中目前市场上的10年以上 Municipal Bonds 如 NJ, CA, Peninsular,的
: interest可以达到这一标准4-5% 。
: 不过需要注意的是如果一旦加息这种长期的bond的YTM可能会下降。
: 另外，还有银行的structure products, 也会大致达到4-5%的回报，而且是在保本的情
: 况下。
: 年金不用考虑了，应为就算是非常幸运被你找到一个把所有费用都去掉的成长还能达到
: 10%的年金。你通常会需要30-35年的时间来分享这个年金的所有收益。实际上你每年的
|
w*****e
发帖数: 721 | |
w*****e
发帖数: 721 | |
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 54 Rising rates will put pressure on Preferred Stocks' prices. |
w*****e
发帖数: 721 | 55 It does not matter what price is traded on the market.
You can always hold to maturity or redemption at the face value.
And. For the purposes of beating inflation, 6-8% returns is almost
guaranteed to be 1-2% or more than inflation. |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 56 "You can always hold to maturity"? For preferred stocks... you mean like
forever?
Even if you can hold to maturity, you are kidding yourself if you think the
market price doesn't matter as long as you can redeem at the face value.
Fixed-income market is highly efficient in terms of pricing. The moment that
rates rise, your investments already worth less, and it is real, not just
some perception.
IMO, preferred stocks bring you the worst of the two worlds of equity and
fixed income. You cannot participate the growth of the underlying company,
yet you get yourself into all kinds of credit, maturity, and call risks, etc
. I'd stay away from them. |
w*****e
发帖数: 721 | 57 If preferred stocks are traded at high efficiency, then they are priced
fairly with risk/ reward, thus they can not be the worst of both worlds.
Your assessments about this shows that you are not familiar with this
particular investment vehicles. |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 58 Market being efficient doesn't mean investors focusing on a narrow subset of
securities are sufficiently rewarded for the risk they are taking; neither
does it mean investors should just go ahead and invest in anything because
hopefully it is "fairly" priced.
I'm sure you are an expert on this particular investment vehicle. So, I'm
all ears. Please enlighten me:
- When you say "Not guaranteed, but almost" (IMO very misleading), it sounds
like a sure thing. Then why preferred stocks have a yield of ~6-8% while 30
-year t-bond rate is ~3%? Why Wall street money is not smart enough to
arbitrage away the gap?
- How do you plan to hold to maturity for the preferred stocks from the link
you posted? They all read "Perpetual"? and as far as I know it's rare to
have newly issued preferred stocks maturing in less than 30 years.
- When Fed raises the interest rate by 1%, 30-year t-bond price may drop by
20%, how much do you think the preferred stocks will move?
- Let's say the economy tanks and Fed has to lower the rates again. T-bond
holders will be happy to see the prices of their bonds spikes. I guess that
won't happen to preferred stocks? The banks issuing the preferred stocks are
likely being stressed at the same time and may go belly up. For the
callable ones, even if the bank does survive, it can simply call the
preferred stocks below market price. It doesn't sound to me you are
sufficiently rewarded.
【在 w*****e 的大作中提到】
: If preferred stocks are traded at high efficiency, then they are priced
: fairly with risk/ reward, thus they can not be the worst of both worlds.
: Your assessments about this shows that you are not familiar with this
: particular investment vehicles.
|
w*****e
发帖数: 721 | 59
sounds like a sure thing. Then why preferred stocks have a yield of ~6-8%
while 30-year t-bond rate is ~3%? Why Wall street money is not smart enough
to arbitrage away the gap?
I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different ratings ,
different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who cares ?
Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
Under current Basel III regulation, all big banks are required to raise
capital and it is almost impossible that these big banks (especially the
tier 1 banks) to call back these preferred stocks.
The true risk of buying preferred stock is the call back, because they are
all priced above the face value now.
link you posted? They all read "Perpetual"? and as far as I know it's rare
to have newly issued preferred stocks maturing in less than 30 years.
I am not sure what you are trying to ask. "How do you plan to hold ?"??
Why is this a problem if your goal is to have LONG TERM fixed income ?
If you are questioning the LONG Term interest or inflation, I think no one
can predict that, but 6%-8% is very hard to beat. I assume it is possible,
in the next 30 years, you may see 1-3 years above 5%, but I can not image a
8% inflation for over a decade. Even that, holding it for 30 years, with 8%
inflation for 10 years, you can still come out ahead of inflation.
by 20%, how much do you think the preferred stocks will move?
How much do you think it will move ? T-bond dropped about 8-15% since Trump
upset, yet BAC.PRL actually goes up. Even compare to 6 months ago, it
dropped only 2.3%.
As I said, if your goal is just to beat inflation 1-2% every year, there is
no reason that a 6-8% return from big bank's preferred stocks can not do
that.
holders will be happy to see the prices of their bonds spikes. I guess that
won't happen to preferred stocks? The banks issuing the preferred stocks
are likely being stressed at the same time and may go belly up. For the
callable ones, even if the bank does survive, it can simply call the
preferred stocks below market price. It doesn't sound to me you are
sufficiently rewarded.
Again, see BASEL III capital requirement. HSBC makes a big load of money in
the last few years, every year, and they still need to issue preferred stock
to raise Level-1 capital. Call-back is very unlikely, unless they throw
BASEL III out of the window.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Market being efficient doesn't mean investors focusing on a narrow subset of
: securities are sufficiently rewarded for the risk they are taking; neither
: does it mean investors should just go ahead and invest in anything because
: hopefully it is "fairly" priced.
: I'm sure you are an expert on this particular investment vehicle. So, I'm
: all ears. Please enlighten me:
: - When you say "Not guaranteed, but almost" (IMO very misleading), it sounds
: like a sure thing. Then why preferred stocks have a yield of ~6-8% while 30
: -year t-bond rate is ~3%? Why Wall street money is not smart enough to
: arbitrage away the gap?
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 60
>> I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different
ratings, different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who
cares ?
It doesn't matter to the ones that do understand that there is no free lunch
, that with such a gap, "almost guaranteed" is far from the truth.
>> Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
Not as a group, but one or two of them (who knows which one), over your
lifetime, I wouldn't rule out that possibility completely.
>> I am not sure what you are trying to ask. "How do you plan to hold ?"??
Well, you said you can hold to maturity, yet many of the preferred stocks
don't have a maturity date (Perpetual).
So my question is really simple: how do you plan to hold to maturity (
keyword being *maturity*)? and at what cost?
>> Why is this a problem if your goal is to have LONG TERM fixed income ?
Yield is only part of the equation. What matters is total return, not yield.
And more importantly, the risk adjusted return.
Take a look at the total return chart from morningstar, dividend included (
attached below). PFF as a proxy of the preferred stocks dropped ~55% in 2008
, more than junk bonds (JNK) and even more than stocks (VTI)!
If you had bought PFF in the early 2008, it has not recovered yet as of now.
Stomaching that kind of drawdown (actually less) from stocks, you would (and
should) be rewarded: VTI up ~70% now from Jan 2008. Not with the preferred.
If you have a balanced portfolio, meaning a healthy mix of stocks and high-
quality bonds, you would be able to easily reduce the left-tail risk and
still do much better than holding preferred stocks.
>> How much do you think it will move ?
I don't know. You are the expert. You tell me.
If it's bond, I would guess the drop to be at least 30%. But it's not bond.
It's hybrid. Who knows how it's going to respond.
If you have data from the 80's (say 1983-1985 or 1987-1989), we would be
able to see how it responded in the past.
>> T-bond dropped about 8-15% since Trump upset, yet BAC.PRL actually goes
up.
Now you are mixing different things together. Trump administration is going
to deregulate, which of course benefits the banks.
I'm sorry. You're not the one who mix different things together. It's the
preferred stocks mixing different things together.
【在 w*****e 的大作中提到】
:
: sounds like a sure thing. Then why preferred stocks have a yield of ~6-8%
: while 30-year t-bond rate is ~3%? Why Wall street money is not smart enough
: to arbitrage away the gap?
: I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different ratings ,
: different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who cares ?
: Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
: Under current Basel III regulation, all big banks are required to raise
: capital and it is almost impossible that these big banks (especially the
: tier 1 banks) to call back these preferred stocks.
|
|
|
r***e
发帖数: 2539 | 61 谢谢你的分析，请问你这个图真的包含了分红吗？最近几年ppf/jnk都有收益，但是你的
图上几乎是平的，或者有下降。
>> I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different
ratings, different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who
cares ?
It doesn't matter to the ones that do understand that there is no free lunch
, that with such a gap, "almost guaranteed" is far from the truth.
>> Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
Not as a group, but one or two of them (who knows which one), over your
lifetime, I wouldn't rule out that possibility completely.
>> I am not sure what you are trying to ask. "How do you plan to hold ?"??
Well, you said you can hold to maturity, yet many of the preferred stocks
don't have a maturity date (Perpetual).
So my question is really simple: how do you plan to hold to maturity (
keyword being *maturity*)? and at what cost?
>> Why is this a problem if your goal is to have LONG TERM fixed income ?
Yield is only part of the equation. What matters is total return, not yield.
And more importantly, the risk adjusted return.
Take a look at the total return chart from morningstar, dividend included (
attached below). PFF as a proxy of the preferred stocks dropped ~55% in 2008
, more than junk bonds (JNK) and even more than stocks (VTI)!
If you had bought PFF in the early 2008, it has not recovered yet as of now.
Stomaching that kind of drawdown (actually less) from stocks, you would (and
should) be rewarded: VTI up ~70% now from Jan 2008. Not with the preferred.
If you have a balanced portfolio, meaning a healthy mix of stocks and high-
quality bonds, you would be able to easily reduce the left-tail risk and
still do much better than holding preferred stocks.
>> How much do you think it will move ?
I don't know. You are the expert. You tell me.
If it's bond, I would guess the drop to be at least 30%. But it's not bond.
It's hybrid. Who knows how it's going to respond.
If you have data from the 80's (say 1983-1985 or 1987-1989), we would be
able to see how it responded in the past.
>> T-bond dropped about 8-15% since Trump upset, yet BAC.PRL actually goes
up.
Now you are mixing different things together. Trump administration is going
to deregulate, which of course benefits the banks.
I'm sorry. You're not the one who mix different things together. It's the
preferred stocks mixing different things together.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
:
: >> I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different
: ratings, different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who
: cares ?
: It doesn't matter to the ones that do understand that there is no free lunch
: , that with such a gap, "almost guaranteed" is far from the truth.
: >> Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
: Not as a group, but one or two of them (who knows which one), over your
: lifetime, I wouldn't rule out that possibility completely.
: >> I am not sure what you are trying to ask. "How do you plan to hold ?"??
|
r***e
发帖数: 2539 | 62 YearPFFCategory
2016
1.26%N/A
2015
4.62%1.40%
2014
13.45%11.14%
2013
-0.59%-2.59%
2012
18.25%14.39%
2011
-2.20%0.08%
2010
13.96%14.28%
2009
39.27%33.00%
2008
-23.24%-28.24%
2007
N/A-16.05%
你的
lunch
【在 r***e 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你的分析，请问你这个图真的包含了分红吗？最近几年ppf/jnk都有收益，但是你的
: 图上几乎是平的，或者有下降。
:
: >> I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different
: ratings, different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who
: cares ?
: It doesn't matter to the ones that do understand that there is no free lunch
: , that with such a gap, "almost guaranteed" is far from the truth.
: >> Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
: Not as a group, but one or two of them (who knows which one), over your
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 63 Good catch. My mistake.
I forgot this: For Morningstar chart to include total return, I have to
start with a mutual fund (not an etf) then the chart would be growth chart
rather than price chart.
There you go, corrected below.
Now this is a big change. PFF has a positive return over the years that is
similar to junk bonds. Up to you to decide if the reward is sufficient for
the huge drawdown in 2008.
你的
lunch
【在 r***e 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你的分析，请问你这个图真的包含了分红吗？最近几年ppf/jnk都有收益，但是你的
: 图上几乎是平的，或者有下降。
:
: >> I am sure you must have heard the term "rating" before ? Different
: ratings, different returns. (but why does this gap matters anyway ? who
: cares ?
: It doesn't matter to the ones that do understand that there is no free lunch
: , that with such a gap, "almost guaranteed" is far from the truth.
: >> Unless you believe these tier 1 banks can fail again ?)
: Not as a group, but one or two of them (who knows which one), over your
|
M*********n
发帖数: 137 | 64 每年都跑赢通胀很难啦。但如果流动性需求不是很高，还是有很多选择的。
1. Muni bond，高一些的可以到4%，那么税前就大概6%左右了，但是terms长，而且现
在在加息周期，如果你只是拿到到期日当然没问题，但是要受得住万一加息中间bond
mark to market的风险.
2. TIPS. 这个利弊大家刚才都说了。
3. 房地产，比如non traded REITs. 还处于收购阶段未上市。受市场波动小。年化收
益现在多在5.5-6.5%左右，并且有一半左右的收益是tax deferred。等卖的时候按long
term capital gain交税，这么算来税前收益相当于8%以上。缺点是流动性差，最快上
市也要三四年，到底何时上市或exit也说不准。而且小的公司可能管理经验不丰富。建
议只买最大的那几只, COLE, Griffin, CNL.
4. Floating rate bank loan/debt. 可以买mutual fund或者ETF，fidelity，credit
suisse，blackrock都有，最近已经涨了很多了。在加息周期, floating rate loan还
是很有优势的。流动性也比较好。
5. Structured notes. 最常见的产品是link to SPX and RTY，只要两个指数在产品存
续期间不跌破购买时价位的30-40%，就能每年拿6-10% coupon。高净值客户买的很多，
有一定保本功能（只要市场不跌30-40%), 又能enhance yield.
6. Private BDC. Middle market loan比较多。这个和REITs一样，也是要具体案例具
体分析。
最后想说，年金是个省心产品，可是除非你年纪很大又对金融一窍不通，否则你自己投
资，只要不手贱瞎trade，应该回报远高于年金。 |
