u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/china-will-face-crisis
Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic
growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within
five years.
An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according
to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders
or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape
turmoil.
“There is no doubt that China is in the midst of a speculative credit-
driven bubble that cannot be sustained,” says Stanislav Panis, a currency
strategist at TRIM Broker in Bratislava, Slovakia, and a participant in the
Bloomberg Global Poll, which was conducted Jan. 21-24. Panis likens the
expected fallout to the aftermath of the U.S. subprime-mortgage meltdown.
On Jan. 20, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy
grew 10.3 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in three years and up from 9.2
percent a year earlier. Gross domestic product rose to 39.8 trillion yuan ($
6 trillion).
Any Chinese financial emergency would reverberate around the world. The
total value of the country’s exports and imports last year was $3 trillion,
with about 13 percent of that trade between China and the U.S. As of
November, China also held $896 billion in U.S. Treasuries. The trade and
investment links between the two nations were underlined with Chinese
President Hu Jintao’s visit last week to the White House for meetings with
President Barack Obama.
Worried Neighbors
Investors’ concern contrasts with Chinese government statements on the
outlook for the economy, which is poised to overtake Japan as the world’s
second biggest. The Politburo said last month that the nation had a “sound
base” for stable and fast growth in 2011 after consolidating its recovery.
In an interview in Davos yesterday, Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the
central bank, said he doesn’t expect any “hard landing” and the economy
may expand about 9.5 percent this year.
Fifty-three percent of poll respondents say they believe China is a bubble,
while 42 percent disagree. China’s neighbors are the most concerned: 60
percent of Asia-based respondents identified a bubble in the world’s second
-largest economy.
Worries center on the danger that investment, which surged almost 24 percent
in 2010, may be producing empty apartment blocks and unneeded factories.
‘Major Dislocations’
Jonathan Sadowsky, chief investment officer at Vaca Creek Asset Management
in San Francisco, says he is “exceptionally worried” that the Chinese
would eventually face “major dislocations within their banking system.”
Chinese authorities also raised interest rates twice in the fourth quarter
in a bid to choke off inflation, a sensitive political issue since the 1989
Tiananmen Square protests, which followed uncontrolled price increases. Food
prices last year rose 7.2 percent, according to the National Bureau of
statistics.
Haroon Shaikh, an investment manager with GAM London Ltd., cited “rapid
wage inflation” and soaring property prices as the financial markets’
chief concern.
Li said rising real estate prices are the “biggest danger” to the Chinese
economy, in an interview with Bloomberg News in Davos, Switzerland. The
People’s Bank of China should “gradually increase rates in the first and
second quarter,” Li said.
Since peaking on Nov. 8 at 3159.51, the Shanghai Composite Index has slid
about 14 percent. “The market is right to be nervous,” Michael Pettis, a
finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management,
wrote in his Jan. 26 financial newsletter.
Worst Market
Some investors remain unbowed. “China can continue to grow over 10 percent
for the better part of the next five years,” said Ardavan Mobasheri, head
of AIG Global Economics in New York.
Still, the poll found other signs of mounting investor caution toward China,
where three decades of market-oriented reform has obliterated a legacy of
Maoist impoverishment.
Asked to identify the worst market for investment over the next year, 20
percent of poll respondents say China versus 11 percent in the last poll in
November. Almost half of those polled -- 48 percent -- say a significant
slowing of growth was very or fairly likely within the next two years.
Michael Martin, senior vice president of MDAvantage Insurance Company of New
Jersey, says the Chinese government “has executed brilliantly” in
managing the economy. The government’s capacity will be tested as the
economy grows and becomes more complex, he says.
Export Reliance
Chinese officials have said they intend to wean the economy off its reliance
upon exports, the source of trade tensions with the U.S., in favor of
greater domestic consumption.
Peter Hurst, a broker with Sterling International Brokers in London, says he
’s concerned China will struggle to complete the transition.
“Yes, there are 1.3 billion people in China,” he says. “But are they rich
enough to become consumers?”
If China stumbles, the global economy will feel the impact, says Suresh
Raghavan, chief investment officer for Raghavan Financial Inc. in Houston.
“If the PBOC is successful at lowering growth rates to 7 percent, it will
still feel like a recession for a lot of people around the world,” he says.
Political Stability
Most poll respondents remained confident of the Chinese government’s
ability to fend off demands for greater political liberalization. Just 1
percent expect a political crisis within the next year and 27 percent expect
one within the next two to five years.
And by a 60 percent to 30 percent margin, those surveyed say President Hu’s
policies were favorable to investors. Hu tied with German Chancellor Angela
Merkel for the poll’s top spot.
“The Chinese politicians are able to act on all necessary issues. That
gives them a huge advantage compared to the Western economies,” says Henry
Littig, who heads his own global investment firm in Cologne, Germany.
The poll was conducted by Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. for Bloomberg
and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
To contact the reporter on this story: David Lynch in Washington at dlynch27
@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at
c******[email protected] | a********e
发帖数: 5251 | 2
traders
【在 u***r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/china-will-face-crisis
: Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic
: growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within
: five years.
: An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according
: to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders
: or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape
: turmoil.
: “There is no doubt that China is in the midst of a speculative credit-
: driven bubble that cannot be sustained,” says Stanislav Panis, a currency
| p******u
发帖数: 14642 | | m*****e
发帖数: 10963 | | c*********k
发帖数: 4747 | 5 中国遇危机,老将欢欣鼓舞,弹冠相庆,OH YEAH
几十年后,就该是国亡不忘告乃翁了.
【在 m*****e 的大作中提到】
: 不错。。。。
: 静观其变。。。
| p**********6
发帖数: 3408 | 6 活着的时候这样还可理解，要是死了还要国亡不忘告乃翁，戾气就重得过分了。
【在 c*********k 的大作中提到】
: 中国遇危机,老将欢欣鼓舞,弹冠相庆,OH YEAH
: 几十年后,就该是国亡不忘告乃翁了.
| L******f
发帖数: 5368 | 7 其实，这篇文章是在明贬暗褒。
55%的投资者认为，未来5年中国
不会有金融危机。
traders
【在 u***r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/china-will-face-crisis
: Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic
: growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within
: five years.
: An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according
: to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders
: or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape
: turmoil.
: “There is no doubt that China is in the midst of a speculative credit-
: driven bubble that cannot be sustained,” says Stanislav Panis, a currency
| w******1
发帖数: 340 | 8 中国已经有严重危机了，那么多人的各种各样的癌症，整个国家健康快崩溃了。 | L******f
发帖数: 5368 | 9 没有危机，就不好卖药啦。
比如说震荡疗法等等。
【在 w******1 的大作中提到】
: 中国已经有严重危机了，那么多人的各种各样的癌症，整个国家健康快崩溃了。
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