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发帖数: 9831 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military2 讨论区 】
发信人: jindj (山长水阔知何处), 信区: Military2
标 题: The Age of Hard-to-Get Oil (zz)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 12 19:31:39 2012, 美东)
The Age of Hard-to-Get Oil
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/fossil-fuels/the-age-of-hardtog
The world’s “proven” oil reserves, those that are readily recoverable
with present-day technology, are estimated to be about 1.4 trillion barrels
of oil. With daily global consumption around 85 million barrels and edging
toward 100 million, we’re on schedule to run out of easily extracted oil in
a generation.
So what will the world energy economy look like 30 to 40 years from now? &#
8233;
IEEE Spectrum spoke to Michael T. Klare, the author of The Race for What’s
Left: The Global Scramble for the World’s Last Resources (Metropolitan
Books, 2012). He sees two major trends shaping the future. First, as the
world keeps getting warmer, there will be more pressure to alter behavior.
So global demand for oil a generation from now will not be a linear
projection from the patterns of past decades.
Second, with production already declining sharply at most of the world’s
major existing oil fields, more and more of the oil will come from harder-to
-get-at sources—ultradeep-water deposits, Arctic reserves, the oil sands of
Canada’s Alberta province, and the extraheavy crude of Venezuela’s
Orinoco Belt. If exploited to the fullest potential, Venezuela’s reserves
alone could satisfy world demand for another generation. But that oil will
not be brought to the surface with the oil rigs we saw in the film There
Will Be Blood (2007), notes Klare. The new technology will be more
sophisticated, more resource demanding, more environmentally threatening,
and of course, much more expensive.
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