由买买提看人间百态

boards

本页内容为未名空间相应帖子的节选和存档,一周内的贴子最多显示50字,超过一周显示500字 访问原贴
Military版 - China Is Very, Very, Very, Very Big
相关主题
谁说伊条大河是反美歌曲,谁就是没有文化假如中美开战” 专题讨论 且看美国愤青都怎么说!(ZZ)
国际上的看法, 中越战争算谁赢了?TRUMP: America rebuilt China
Devin Stewart: Is China Taking the Right Cues From History?我的美国学生提到香港
二战胜利是苏联还是美国的主要功劳?明报:美元统治地位已经走到了尽头
俄国为什么不能回到前苏联?德国正在成为一个明哲保身的强国
The inside story of the Liaoning: how Xu Zengping sealed deal for China's first aircraft carrier苏联有创意的建筑!
俄罗斯与西方关系冰冷,主要错在西方日本投降并不是怕原子弹,而是怕。。。
China's economy is getting worse. That makes a trade deal more likely1945年中国战场也胜利在望
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: china话题: very话题: economy话题: chinese话题: would
进入Military版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
W***n
发帖数: 11530
1
Economics
China Is Very, Very, Very, Very Big
26 Oct 30, 2014 12:48 PM EDT
By Noah Smith
Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett have written a paper predicting a Chinese
growth slowdown. In 2013, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin
wrote a paper with much the same message, which accurately predicted the
recent Chinese slowdown from about 10 percent annual growth to about7.5
percent. In fact, the most basic model of economic growth, the Solow Model,
predicts that a country's growth slows as it gets richer. Yes, the case for
a Chinese slowdown is pretty incontrovertible at this point.
According to many pundits, this means that, like the Soviet Union and Japan
before it, China doesn't threaten to supplant the U.S. as the world’s
biggest economy. For example, here is Neil Irwin of the New York Times:
[P]ut aside the challenges China faces this quarter, or next year, and
there is one view that is overwhelming: China is a long-term economic
juggernaut that will stand astride the global economy in another generation
’s time...
[F]or years now, major magazines and editorials and books have told me
about the Chinese Century, in which we are apparently now living. Leading
foreign policy journals have devoted copious ink to exploring what China’s
rise will mean for global economics and politics, often taking as a given
that China will be the dominant power of the coming century...
Analysts predicted that the Soviet economy would soon surpass the
American economy in the 1960s, that Japan’s would do the same in the 1980s
and that the United States had achieved a new era of perpetual speedy growth
in the late 1990s. None of these have come to pass.
China will definitely slow down, but the analogy to the Soviet Union and
Japan is a bad one, for one incredibly simple reason: size. China is so
enormously huge that it would take a calamity far worse than what happened
to Japan, or even the USSR, to stop it from becoming the world’s largest
economy.
China’s population in 2013 was 1.357 billion while the U. S.'s was 316
million. That’s a ratio of 4.29 to 1.
Just to help the reader understand this size disparity, imagine that the U.S
. was an average American man, weighing 191 pounds. If population were
weight, then China would weigh the same as an 819-pound adult male grizzly
bear.
To put it another way, imagine that the U. S. were the JPMorgan Chase
headquarters in New York, which is 707 feet (215 meters) tall. If population
were height, then China would be 316 feet taller than the Burj Khalifa,
which at 2,717 feet is the world’s tallest building.
Of course, population and gross domestic product are'n't weight or height,
so let’s put it in slightly more realistic terms. Here is a fact: If every
Chinese person of working age had a job for 40 hours a week, 50 weeks a year
, those workers would only need to make $9.15 an hour for the Chinese
economy to be larger than that of the U.S.
How about those comparisons to the USSR? If China’s per-capita GDP were the
same level as that of Russia today, China’s economy would be 20 percent
larger than that of the U.S.
In other words, even a Soviet-style collapse would present no obstacle to
China becoming the world’s dominant economy. The one simple reason is that
China is mind-bogglingly huge.
For China not to become the world’s largest economy, it would not take just
a slowdown -- it would take a collapse on a bigger scale than anything we’
ve seen in recent world history, short of Zimbabwe or North Korea. That isn'
t impossible, but it seems unlikely.
In fact, it’s arguably true that China is already the world’s largest
economy. It’s the biggest in purchasing-power parity terms, which is
arguably a better measure of how much stuff China as a whole can buy. It’s
the world’s largest trader and largest manufacturer.
So those who argue that China’s economic dominance isn't inevitable are
either A) quibbling about a technicality, or B) forgetting the overriding
yet simple fact of China’s enormous size.
To contact the author of this article: Noah Smith at noahsmith.bloomberg@
gmail.com.
To contact the editor responsible for this article: James Greiff at jgreiff@
bloomberg.net.
S*********4
发帖数: 5125
2
W***n
发帖数: 11530
3
China WILL be the most important across-the-board market on this planet
earth !!! (Some categories are already #1)
.. within 10 years
b****s
发帖数: 872
4
这种问题只要看历史长河就行了。
中国古代基本都是亚洲和世界经济第一,几次衰落都是因为战争。
现在只是又回到当时的位置,阻止的办法只有战争
a******9
发帖数: 20431
5
这篇文章讲了半天其实啥都没说

Shin
,
for

【在 W***n 的大作中提到】
: Economics
: China Is Very, Very, Very, Very Big
: 26 Oct 30, 2014 12:48 PM EDT
: By Noah Smith
: Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett have written a paper predicting a Chinese
: growth slowdown. In 2013, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin
: wrote a paper with much the same message, which accurately predicted the
: recent Chinese slowdown from about 10 percent annual growth to about7.5
: percent. In fact, the most basic model of economic growth, the Solow Model,
: predicts that a country's growth slows as it gets richer. Yes, the case for

T*******a
发帖数: 23033
6
尼玛,美帝在造屠杀我族的舆论。
M*****8
发帖数: 17722
7

疣疣最擅长的就是屠杀或歧视或排挤非疣的精英。
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d8Lw8MEjsU
http://tinyurl.com/m6zc8y7
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eRvKKDy6nM
掌权以后,只要非疣无枪,也擅长对非疣大屠杀。
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV24vqRMOwE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_dPS362OHY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvhZyl_IADE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8_Wndy3D5s
再看米国最积极鼓吹禁枪的是谁,目的不难了解。
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zy227hN5B0
绝多数情况米犹不用动手,洗脑非疣充炮灰即可。
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18l_LQ-VnmY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qxzZY4JycY

【在 b****s 的大作中提到】
: 这种问题只要看历史长河就行了。
: 中国古代基本都是亚洲和世界经济第一,几次衰落都是因为战争。
: 现在只是又回到当时的位置,阻止的办法只有战争

M*****8
发帖数: 17722
8

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Military/42685853_0.html

【在 T*******a 的大作中提到】
: 尼玛,美帝在造屠杀我族的舆论。
l****e
发帖数: 2315
9
肤浅。
M****l
发帖数: 416
10
very very long

Shin
,
for

【在 W***n 的大作中提到】
: Economics
: China Is Very, Very, Very, Very Big
: 26 Oct 30, 2014 12:48 PM EDT
: By Noah Smith
: Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett have written a paper predicting a Chinese
: growth slowdown. In 2013, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin
: wrote a paper with much the same message, which accurately predicted the
: recent Chinese slowdown from about 10 percent annual growth to about7.5
: percent. In fact, the most basic model of economic growth, the Solow Model,
: predicts that a country's growth slows as it gets richer. Yes, the case for

1 (共1页)
进入Military版参与讨论
相关主题
1945年中国战场也胜利在望俄国为什么不能回到前苏联?
美国的新保守主义如何摧毁了人类对和平的希望The inside story of the Liaoning: how Xu Zengping sealed deal for China's first aircraft carrier
整个世界都在背弃美元 这两个因素是关键俄罗斯与西方关系冰冷,主要错在西方
在毛泽东天下,我就不相信“苏修亡我之心不死”China's economy is getting worse. That makes a trade deal more likely
谁说伊条大河是反美歌曲,谁就是没有文化假如中美开战” 专题讨论 且看美国愤青都怎么说!(ZZ)
国际上的看法, 中越战争算谁赢了?TRUMP: America rebuilt China
Devin Stewart: Is China Taking the Right Cues From History?我的美国学生提到香港
二战胜利是苏联还是美国的主要功劳?明报:美元统治地位已经走到了尽头
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: china话题: very话题: economy话题: chinese话题: would