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发帖数: 5125 | 1 美联储将结束零利率，美元将进入升息周期
来源: 虎落平原 于 2014-12-14 10:05:57 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve would give the clearest signal
next week that its easy money stance is ending if, as some expect, it drops
its two-year long pledge to keep interest rates close to zero for a "
considerable time".
The Fed, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, first inserted that wording
in its post-meeting statements in December 2012, promising then to maintain
its highly accommodative monetary stance for a considerable time after its
asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.
Both have occurred.
The U.S. unemployment rate slipped below 6.5 percent, a Fed mark of
healthier recovery, in April and is now at a six-year low of 5.8 percent
even as more people enter the labor force. Its asset buying ended in October
, when all but one of its voting members opted to keep the "considerable
time" language.
The market has understood the term to mean at least six months, with current
expectations for a first rate hike in mid-2015.
Since October, the more hawkish Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher has said the
Fed should drop the pledge, while more moderate Cleveland counterpart
Loretta Mester told Reuters the reference was "really stale".
Some economists believe markets will take a change of wording in their
stride, but others hark back to "taper tantrums" after the Fed first
mentioned the idea of gradually reducing monetary expansion in May 2013.
"It has to be done at some point, but it's like taking off a sticking
plaster. It's going to hurt," said Rob Carnell, chief international
economist at ING, who questions central banks' propensity to use set terms
rather than just rely on data.
Carnell believes U.S. headline inflation may well fall below 1 percent in
the March-May period, when seasonal adjustments would give a greater
weighting for a weak oil price than at present.
"It's then a hard sales act to start hiking in May or June," he said.
EU GROWTH SUMMIT
The week, for many the final working days before Christmas and New Year
holidays, will conclude with a European Union Summit focused firmly on the
faltering economy.
In an ideal world for some economists, France and Italy, the number two and
three euro zone economies, would pledge more growth-driving reforms and
budget restraint, providing cover for the European Central Bank to unleash
new weapons to fight deflation.
Pressure on the ECB to start printing money and buying sovereign bonds rose
further last week as its offering of low- cost loans to banks drew only
tepid interest
Banks have taken barely half the 400 billion euros ($497.4 billion) of loans
on offer this year, implying they have little confidence in lending to the
euro zone's backbone of small companies.
ECB policymakers have dropped hints that it could move in the direction of
money printing as soon as January, but a small group of countries led by
Germany are opposed, fearing it would lead to reckless borrowing by debt-
laden states.
"(ECB President Mario) Draghi has seven weeks to get everyone in line. I don
't think he'll pull it off before Christmas," said BNP Paribas Fortis Chief
Strategy Officer Philippe Gijsels. "We're very much driven by central banks
into next year."
As a reminder that the euro zone debt crisis is not fully extinguished,
Greece's parliament holds the first round of its presidential vote on
Wednesday. A likely third and final round is expected on Dec. 29.
If Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's candidate does not secure the required
three-fifths of votes, more than the government majority, it would trigger
parliamentary elections, which polls show anti-bailout party Syriza would
probably win.
Samaras warned on Thursday Greece risked a "catastrophic" return to the
depths of its debt crisis if his government fell, his comments driving Greek
stock and bond losses.
However, while Greek 10-year bond yields have passed 9 percent, with shorter
-dated paper even higher, the yield on 10-year Italian bonds was around 2
percent on Friday and for Spanish bonds just below.
The prospect of quantitative easing from the ECB, whose president promised
in 2012 to "do whatever it takes" to save the euro, means this is not a
repeat of 2010-2012, when fears of contagion to other EU members raged.
Those hoping for respite from concern over a China slowdown will have an eye
on a private survey due on Tuesday (CNPMIF=ECI). It is expected to creep
back into growth territory in December after stalling in November. |
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