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发帖数: 16092 | 1 By Alyssa Pereira Published 12:36 pm, Friday, February 26, 2016
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In this Jan. 13, 2016 file photo, Republican presidential candidate
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Pensacola Bay Center in
Pensacola Fla. Photo: Michael Snyder, AP / FRE171341 AP
Photo: Michael Snyder, AP
Image 1 of 12
In this Jan. 13, 2016 file photo, Republican presidential candidate Donald
Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Pensacola Bay Center in
Pensacola Fla.
A Stony Brook University professor of political science named Helmut Norpoth
, who developed an almost perfect statistical formula model that predicts
who will become president, has declared that if Donald Trump wins the
Republican nomination, he will almost certainly become President of the
United States.
The system utilizes the performance of a candidate within their own
political party along with "patterns in the electoral cycle" to predict its
winner. According to the school's newspaper, the latter factor "studies a
pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for
an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office." That
portion of the formula doesn't take into account who each party nominates or
the condition of the country at the time.
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At first, as he told the university's newspaper, Norpoth wanted to see what
the political picture would look like if Trump were to face Sanders in the
election.
"When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it
was sort of a joke." he said. "Well, I'll tell you right now, it ain't a
joke anymore."
The model, which has correctly identified and predicted the winner of every
election but one since 1912 — the one miss was the 1960 winner John F.
Kennedy — has surmised that if the ballot comes down to Democratic
frontrunner Hillary Clinton and Trump in the upcoming November election, the
latter has a 97 percent chance of entering the White House. If Bernie
Sanders wins the democratic nomination, the odds of Trump winning leap up to
99 percent.
That's not all. Even if it's not Trump in the primaries, the formula has
revealed that the Republican party still has a 61 percent chance of a
presidential win, unless, that is, Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz go head to head
with Clinton.
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In that event, Clinton would just barely take the ticket, with a minuscule 0
.3 percent lead in the popular vote.
Still, the possibility of a Trump win has proven to be a frightening concept
to many, especially when news like this comes to light.
"The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent,
" Norpoth said. "It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'" |
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