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发帖数: 7349 | 1 It is possible that “shy Trump” voters didn’t want to admit their support
to pollsters. However, there was no evidence of such a pattern during the
Republican primaries, when Mr Trump did not generally beat his polls.
And given his margin with working-class whites, it is hard to imagine that
people whose friends and neighbours mainly backed him would be ashamed to
say so themselves. A likelier cause is “non-response bias”—that working-
class whites who backed Mr Trump were particularly reluctant to answer the
phone.
It is also possible that some decided to vote Republican after the last
polls were completed. Lastly, Mr Trump’s blunt, targeted courtship of this
demographic group, which historically has shown a fairly low propensity to
vote, may have motivated them to turn out in greater numbers.
Such enthusiasm is hard for pollsters to detect. |
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