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发帖数: 37081 | 1 The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday committed
its fractious members to their first oil production limits in eight years.
Now comes the hard part.
OPEC has agreed to cut production by about 1.2 million barrels per day, or
about 4.5 percent of current production, to 32.5 million barrels per day.
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia faces the unenviable tasks of policing cartel
members and keeping crude prices within a range that will relieve pressure
on oil-producing countries' economies, but which will dissuade non-OPEC
producers from increasing output.
Analysts broadly expect an agreement to boost oil prices above $50 a barrel
and keep them there. Prices have wavered between about $40 and $54 since the
spring.
Commodity watchers also believe the deal will set up a long-awaited balance
between oil supply and demand in the first half of next year. The market has
been oversupplied for more than two years, by as much as 2 million barrels
a day.
"The OPEC producers are close to being capped out, and the ones that do have
significant spare capacity continue to face security problems that will
likely imperil any ramp-up plans in the near term."
-research note, RBC Capital Markets
But OPEC now has a difficult needle to thread. Oil rigs began popping up in
U.S. oil fields when prices approached $50 a barrel, and analysts believe
high-cost producers outside OPEC will further ramp up production if crude
prices rise above $55 a barrel.
That includes U.S. shale drillers, which have built a backlog of partially
completed wells in anticipation of a price recovery. Once prices rise, they
could switch on that production-in-waiting.
While many see oil prices averaging between $50 and $55 next year, analysts
are not united on the path to that level. Goldman Sachs believes the deal
will cause crude prices to spike in the first half of 2017, and then
moderate in the second half as both OPEC and U.S. shale producers capitalize
on the rally.
But JPMorgan sees prices rising slowly but steadily quarter after quarter.
The bank cautioned that the deal is essentially aimed at preventing an even
larger buildup of oil stockpiles. The world's storage facilities are
brimming with crude and refined fuels.
Accommodations the cartel offered to Iran, Libya and Nigeria would mean that
total OPEC production will likely increase next year, even as other members
cut output in the first part of 2017, JPMorgan said.
Libya and Nigeria were granted exemptions because they have experienced
significant supply outages due to internal conflicts. Iran agreed to freeze
production near current levels rather than cut as it rebuilds its market
share following the lifting of sanctions earlier this year. |
