s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 1 Trump’s naive Nobel Prize goal is creating false hope on US-China trade
The US President is playing nice with Xi Jinping, not because he suddenly
became a free-trade champion but because his eye is on the prize – the
Nobel Prize
Donald Trump’s is the White House that can’t shoot straight, policy-wise.
But last week highlighted the extent to which key Trump team members are
firing at each other, and in ways that should worry emerging markets.
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He visited Washington to tamp down the threat of a
giant trade war. The real stand-off, though, is between Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin and Trump adviser Peter Navarro. Mnuchin favours a US-China
trade; Navarro wants to build a great wall of isolation around Trump Nation.
The more Xi helps Trump’s detente process with North Korea, the more
conciliatory Washington will appear on trade
Last week’s talks got us no closer to knowing which of these hacks might be
fired first – in a more perfect world, neither would get within miles of
the Oval Office. But that’s what happens when a leader covets loyalty and
bombast over skills. But the odds favour an ultimate Navarro triumph, adding
to the troubles coursing through emerging markets.
Like clockwork, Argentina’s financial chaos spread to Turkey and,
increasingly, Indonesia. Fitch Ratings last week warned that developing-
nation government debt has quadrupled since the dark days of the 2008 global
crisis. That, coupled with rising US bond yields, has Harvard’s Carmen
Reinhart worried that 2018 could be even worse for the emerging world.
If there’s any pattern to the Trump White House, it’s that breaking deals
– be they on trade, climate or Iran – comes more easily than forging them.
Photo: APTrump’s erratic policy is a key reason why. One of his most
consistently applauded lines at rallies around the US is the idea of taking
China down a peg. At the moment, Trump is playing nice with Xi Jinping, not
because he suddenly became a free-trade champion. No, Trump’s eye is still
on the prize – the Nobel Prize.
Trade war averted? China vows to buy more from US, but truce will take time
[1]
This overriding goal is creating false hope on US-China trade. Every
concession Trump makes – like aiding ZTE’s access to US markets – is
partly about that Oslo medal ceremony. The more Xi helps Trump’s detente
process with North Korea, the more conciliatory Washington will appear on
trade.
For now, at least. There are two reasons Navarro and his anti-China ilk will
return to the ascendancy.
One, Trump’s Nobel dreams are naive. His surreal bromance with Kim Jong-un
had quite the reality check last week. Turns out, Pyongyang’s definition of
denuclearisation includes Washington disarming. Talk about a non-starter.
The plot thickened further when Trump said Xi “could be influencing” Kim’
s cold feet. It suggests that if next month’s summit in Singapore gets
scrapped, it’s all Beijing’s fault.
Trump’s surreal bromance with Kim Jong-un had quite the reality check last
week when it turned out Pyongyang’s definition of denuclearisation includes
Washington disarming. Photo: AP
Trump’s surreal bromance with Kim Jong-un had quite the reality check last
week when it turned out Pyongyang’s definition of denuclearisation includes
Washington disarming. Photo: AP
The same might be true even if a Trump-Kim meeting happens. The odds of Kim
surrendering his nukes were minuscule even before Trump’s national security
adviser, uber-hawk John Bolton, spouted off about a “Libya model.”
Muammar Gaddafi’s fate after he scrapped his nuclear ambitions won’t
appeal much to North Korea’s hereditary boss. Trump is almost sure to be
disappointed by Kim’s follow-through on any Singapore pact – and, in his
mind, Xi’s unwillingness to crack the whip.
A Nobel Peace Prize for Trump? He deserves it more than many of the
recipients [2]
Secondly, legal troubles in Washington. Trump’s Nobel ambition aims to
eclipse and transcend the scandals, indictments and general chaos that are
sure to colour his legacy. As the investigatory noose tightens and his
legislative prospects dim, Trump is likely to resort to his greatest hits –
China is “raping” American workers, “killing” jobs and it’s time to
rumble.
Nothing would excite Trump supporters ahead of congressional elections in
November like body-slamming China. It also would change the subject from
what’s almost sure to be a letdown on the North Korea front.
That sure won’t win Trump any prizes with emerging-market investors, let
alone the Nobel committee. But it’s important to look past today’s glimmer
of optimism on trade. If there’s any pattern to the Trump White House, it
’s that breaking deals – be they on trade, climate or Iran – comes more
easily than forging them. | s*****x
发帖数: 698 | 2 早知道床铺好这口，tg应该做一个一吨重的大奖章发给他。 | g********0
发帖数: 6201 | |
|
