d*b
发帖数: 1 | 1 川普与中国的贸易现在结束了，中国赢了！
总统川普与中国的贸易战结束了，至少暂时，最新的报告显示，中国占了便宜。
不可否认，美国与中国的双边经济关系有着根深蒂固的不平衡衡问题，历届美国政府也
没有成功的让中国应用通常或者外交手段来解决这些问题。川普先生采用了激进的对抗
手段，包括威胁施加关税，或许值得一试，以达到他想要的真实目的。
然而，根据现在报到的美国与中国的停战协议，川普先生看起来已经使用了美国的杠杆
，企图大规模的减少美国对中国3750亿美元的贸易逆差，这其实是一场可以预期得到的
徒劳之举。 他现在同意撤销关税威胁，以换取中国的同等对待，加上让中国购买更多
的美国农产品和液化天然气的承诺。 事实上，这些美国的销售并不能减少美国与中国
的贸易逆差，只会转移全球贸易流量而不是扩大贸易量。原因是中国事实上已经在这些
贸易市场。而中国把汽车关税从25%降低到15%， 因为无法改变外国汽车公司利用中国
的优惠政策在中国生产汽车的压倒性优势而从美国进口汽车。
与此同时，中国已经达到了看得见和看不见的两个重要目的。看得见的一面是，总统表
现出有意对眼看奄奄一息的中国通讯公司中兴七年制裁处罚上撤退。对这家公司的惩处
，是因为其严重违反了美国国家安全的相关法律，特别是这家公司违反美国法律和伊朗
，北朝鲜进行商业交易；以及在与美国的最初和解达成后还持续性欺骗。但是，川普现
在表示，鉴于他与中国国家主席（dictator）习近平的良好关系，美国或许通过罚款和
让中兴重组管理层来解禁对其惩罚。而看不见的一面则是，美国把对国家的安全威胁做
为贸易的交换条件，这对中国来说实在是无形的胜利。更对中国有利的是，川普的政策
团队内讧严重，而且也受到美国政治和农场带来的巨大压力。
事实上，一开始，美国就应当把焦点放在真正重要，合法，和对中国的不满上。比方对
外国投资者的限制，知识产权的盗窃以及谋图对未来高科技产业的主宰等方面。 因为
在这个结构性问题上，中国的政策一直没有任何改善。总统川普先生以卖了很多美国的
原材料来显示胜利，没有理由让北京能够改变这一切。
或许这种不利的休战是川普需要习先生的帮助来处理朝鲜问题的最好方法。但是，这明
显有利益冲突，而且是可以预见的。
从来没有人说贸易战容易赢，除非有那么一个人刚刚证明这个不容易。
The Post's View Opinion
Trump’s trade war with China is over for now. China won.
By Editorial Board
May 22 at 6:41 PM
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S trade war with China is over, at least temporarily, and
here’s the after-action report: Advantage, China.
There’s no denying that stubborn imbalances have built up in the United
States’ bilateral economic relationship with China; nor have past
administrations succeeded in getting Beijing to address those through
conventional diplomatic means. Mr. Trump’s more confrontational approach,
including his threat to impose tariffs, might have been worth a try, had he
pursued the right goals.
As the reported terms of the Trump administration’s truce with China show,
however, Mr. Trump to date seems to have spent American leverage on a
predictably futile effort to achieve large short-term reductions in the $375
billion annual U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China. He agreed to
withdraw tariff threats in return for China’s doing the same with its
counterthreat, plus promises from Beijing to buy more U.S. agricultural
goods and liquefied natural gas. These U.S. sales won’t dent the trade
deficit, and they will simply shift global trade flows rather than expand
them, because China was already in the market for these raw materials. Nor
will China’s ballyhooed reduction in auto tariffs from 25 percent to 15
percent do much to change foreign firms’ overwhelming incentives to build
cars in China as opposed to export them there from the United States.
Meanwhile, China has achieved important objectives, both tangible and
intangible. In the tangible category, the most important is the president’s
apparent willingness to back off a seven-year ban on U.S. sales of
components to the Chinese telecommunications giant ZTE, which would have
crippled that firm. The U.S. ban was punishment for serious violations of U.
S. national security-related laws, specifically, ZTE’s business dealings
with Iran and North Korea, and the company’s subsequent lies in its initial
settlement with the United States. Mr. Trump has indicated now, however,
that, in deference to his good relationship with Chinese dictator Xi Jinping
, the United States would settle for a fine and changes to ZTE management.
That’s an intangible victory for China too, in that it shows the United
States will treat national security policy as a subject of trade negotiation
. Also favorable to China is the revelation that Mr. Trump’s policy team is
deeply divided and is susceptible to pressure from America’s politically
pivotal farm belt.
From the start, the administration should have focused on the truly
important, and legitimate, U.S. grievances with China: that country’s
restrictions on foreign investment, its intellectual property theft and its
attempts to dominate future high-tech industries. On these structural issues
, Chinese policy remains the same; Mr. Trump, by showing that he defines
victory as selling more U.S. raw materials, gives Beijing no reason to
change.
Perhaps this unfavorable truce was the best Mr. Trump could achieve at a
time when he also needs Mr. Xi’s help dealing with North Korea. Yet that
conflict of interest, too, was foreseeable. No one ever said winning a trade
war would be easy, except for the one person who has just proved that it’s
not.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-trade-war-with-china-is-over-
for-now-china-won/2018/05/22/aba97b3e-5ddb-11e8-a4a4-c070ef53f315_story.html
?utm_term=.0af57fd1a68f | d****o
发帖数: 32610 | 2 Fake news 这么说，
那肯定是我帝赢了！ | d*b
发帖数: 1 | | b****n
发帖数: 6896 | |
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