P****R
发帖数: 22479 | 1 华盛顿 —
欧盟的一项研究显示，在对中国2500亿美元的商品征收25%的关税后，美国的公司和消
费者只会多支付4.5%的关税，另外20.5%将由中国生产商承担。
这篇由欧盟的“欧洲经济和财政政策研究网络”（EconPol Europe）发布的报告显示，
关税将带来特朗普政府渴望的结果，美国对相关中国产品的进口会减少约37%，对华贸
易逆差减少17%。
报告称，特朗普政府选择加税的产品“价格弹性”高。这导致受美国打击的中国产品可
替代性大，中国出口商不得不降低价格或被迫退出美国市场。
报告还表示，尽管关税扭曲了美国居民的消费决策，但经济负担主要已经转移到中国的
出口公司，而美国政府还能够从中获得184亿美元的收益。
“关税只不过是由外国生产商和国内用户共同负担的税种，”报告作者之一的菲尔博梅
伊（Gabriel Felbermayr）表示。“就中美贸易战而言，美国关税成本的四分之三确实
转移到了中国生产商身上，美国从中获得了非常可观的收入。”
外界正关注，美国总统特朗普和中国国家主席习近平月底在G20阿根廷峰会的会晤能否
给贸易战带来转机。目前，美国已对中国约2500亿美元的产品加征10%的关税，并威胁
如果双方无法达成协议，关税将于1月1日上涨到25%，还计划对剩余2670亿美元的所有
中国进口产品征税。
中国则对约600亿美元的美国产品加征了关税，称美国正实施“贸易保护主义”。
特朗普政府宣称，美国在长期贸易战中比中国更有优势。不过，这份报告指出，随着贸
易冲突升级，美国可能无法将选择限制在高弹性产品上，这将导致美国消费者蒙受更大
的损失。 | b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 2 While Trump and his minions rant on about China engaging in "unfair trade",
the elephants in the corner of the Oval Office are the US-based
multinational corporations that persuaded the USA to sign international
trade agreements that allowed the multinationals to move their factories out
of the USA and into low-wage, low-tax, low-regulation, litigation-free,
human-rights-advocates-free, and pollution-tolerant countries like Mexico
and China, while allowing tariff-free access to the US markets for goods
produced outside the USA.
Meanwhile, many iconic US firms turned from manufacturing to "brand
management", in which others did the manufacturing for them but the goods
were imported and sold under the old brand name.
China provided the low-cost environment that the multinationals wanted, and
built up manufacturing and financial systems. Multinationals also benefited
by parking their profits from non-US manufacturing in offshore banks,
frustrating the IRS.
Then US businesses discovered the 1-B visa scam that allowed them to fire US
workers and bring in cheaper workers from India, etc.
Many famous US corporations like Caterpillar and various auto manufacturers
maintain some manufacturing and assembly centers in the USA, but use parts
made in international supply chains. CAT has some 13 or so factories in
China, for example.
And some famous US companies have set up factories in China to serve the
Chinese market (Ford, GM, etc. for example).
The loss of manufacturing in the USA has helped gut the US Middle Class,
which has been trying to maintain its disappearing standard of living by
maxing their credit cards and falling ever deeper into debt.
The US trade deficits with Mexico, China, Viet Nam, Indonesia, India, etc.
became huge and are now recognized by Trump as unsustainable, as the USA and
its citizens struggle under rising mountains of debts. China gets the
blame, although much or most of the profits from China's manufacturing are
taken by US-and-EU-based multinationals and held in tax-free countries. US
and EU banks get caught occasionally assisting multinationals to evade taxes
on these profits, with London's City reputed to be "Money Laundering
Central". Jean-Claude Junker of EU leadership fame made his mark devising
tax avoidance schemes while leader of Luxembourg.
Trump is trying to prevent the collapse of the US Dollar and the US economy
by restoring the manufacturing sector of the USA. Trump is aiming his blame
at China, but his real target is the multinational corporations - he wants
to force them to return their factories to the USA and to pay taxes in the
USA.
It seems unlikely that the multinationals will return their factories to the
USA, given the overwhelming problems and costs involved in labor costs,
taxes, regulation compliance, constant claims by various activists,
political blackmail, and litigation headaches. Rather, they seem to be
planning to bypass anti-China laws and tariffs by moving production (or
products, for re-branding) into other low-cost countries.
Meanwhile, China is not amenable to US demands that it kowtow to US hegemony
. China has only recently recovered from 3 centuries of exploitation by the
European and US colonial powers and Japan that bankrupted China by 1900 and
left it split up and in chaotic misery that made Mao and his communist
promises attractive as an alternative. Mao finally kicked out the colonial
powers and their puppet Chiang Kai Chek ("General Cash My Cheque") in 1949,
and China was then punished by isolation from the rest of the World from
1949 until Nixon allowed China back into the international community in 1972
. China's Communist party and its people have a long institutional memory
of the humiliation and misery practised upon China before 1972, and then the
attempts at renewed exploitation, and are very unsympathetic to any demands
that China again bow to foreign forces.
China has been planning to disengage from the USA for many years, with
successive 5-year plans stretching many decades into the future. China is a
main proponent, with Russia, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
BRICS, IMF "Basket of Currencies" and "Drawing Rights" to replace the US
Dollar, and the Eurasian trade, political, and mutual defence bloc, of which
the One Belt One Road initiative is a key feature - meant to tie all of
Asia and Europe together in a bloc immune to US influence. China is
reinforcing its relationships with commodity suppliers worldwide, and
financing pipelines to bring oil and natural gas from Russia. China now has
more than half of all the steel producing capacity of the World, and has
clout as the largest importer of oil, coal, and iron ore. Its internal
market is huge, its GDP rivals that of the USA, and it has instituted an oil
-futures trading center and Gold bullion for Yuan exchange there, while it
has built up large reserves of Gold in an implied strategy to back the Yuan.
In the meantime, China has been sending its best students to US and EU
universities and investing heavily into R&D to catch up and even gain an
edge on the US and EU. | q****5
发帖数: 1660 | 3 那为啥美帝赶紧大干快上，灭了万恶的共产。一起分赃。 赶紧上啊 | x****u
发帖数: 32 | 4 废话，中国肯定代价更高，但是只要不让美帝达到目的，就是平手 |
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