S*******l
发帖数: 4637 | 1 两套ELISA，一个abott 的，测N protein抗体, 一个欧洲的，测 S protein抗体。
阳性case定义是两个ELISA都阳性。
9个全假阳性率估算0.00001。
Using our prevalence of 0.00037 (9/24,079), the estimated mean
probability that all 9 were false positives was 0.00001 across
1000 replications of the simulation study; there was a 0.00019, 0.
00210, 0.01405, 0.06251, 0.19487, 0.43841, 0.72959, and 0.93492
probability that there were at least 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 false
positive results, respectively.
根据作者，九个阳性案例里，即使排除假阳性，至少有几个是确信感染过新冠的。
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab519/6294073 | r*****y
发帖数: 53800 | 2 也有其他原因可能导致抗体阳性。曾经感染过其他冠状病毒，也有可能随机产生对2019
新冠的阳性抗体。
The researchers took care to make sure they did not get false positives on
the antibody tests, and tested each sample twice. Nonetheless, they said, it
's possible the tests detected pre-existing immunity to coronaviruses that
happened to randomly create antibodies to the 2019 coronavirus. Four other
coronaviruses regularly infect people, causing common cold symptoms. | S*E
发帖数: 3662 | 3 所以要测2019全年的血样，看是不是抗体理论有问题。 | A****C
发帖数: 1 | 4 当然可能有其他原因，例如以前打过新冠疫苗。。。
2017年的专利么。。。
2019
it
【在 r*****y 的大作中提到】
: 也有其他原因可能导致抗体阳性。曾经感染过其他冠状病毒，也有可能随机产生对2019
: 新冠的阳性抗体。
: The researchers took care to make sure they did not get false positives on
: the antibody tests, and tested each sample twice. Nonetheless, they said, it
: 's possible the tests detected pre-existing immunity to coronaviruses that
: happened to randomly create antibodies to the 2019 coronavirus. Four other
: coronaviruses regularly infect people, causing common cold symptoms.
| Q*****i
发帖数: 349 | 5 这种可能是有的，可能性大致是 0.00001。
2019
it
【在 r*****y 的大作中提到】
: 也有其他原因可能导致抗体阳性。曾经感染过其他冠状病毒，也有可能随机产生对2019
: 新冠的阳性抗体。
: The researchers took care to make sure they did not get false positives on
: the antibody tests, and tested each sample twice. Nonetheless, they said, it
: 's possible the tests detected pre-existing immunity to coronaviruses that
: happened to randomly create antibodies to the 2019 coronavirus. Four other
: coronaviruses regularly infect people, causing common cold symptoms.
| r*****y
发帖数: 53800 | 6 现在也只是24000里测出9例，数量级就是万分之一。
【在 Q*****i 的大作中提到】
: 这种可能是有的，可能性大致是 0.00001。
:
: 2019
: it
| Q*****i
发帖数: 349 | 7 24000 被用了两次。。。
【在 r*****y 的大作中提到】
: 现在也只是24000里测出9例，数量级就是万分之一。
|
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