s*****s
发帖数: 1130 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 TexasHoldem 讨论区 】
发信人: scripps (青虫), 信区: TexasHoldem
标 题: NBA 2013-2014 赛季总结贴
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 16 11:09:18 2014, 美东)
这个赛季终于结束了,我也攒了不少数据可以总结一下. 我的NBA结果是用
sharpbettracker记录和分析的. 我个人经验sharpbettracker还蛮好用的,虽然我也没
用过别的类似软件. 可惜它只track NBA, NHL,和MLB.
Record: 501 Win - 642 Loss - 7 Tight
Win %: 43.83%
$ Won: -501.27
Average bet: $54.92
Average profit: -0.44
Average odds: 163
Average break even winning %: 38%
总共记录了1150个bet, 大部分都是赛季中期的, 从12月底看到wm的贴开始,猛搞了一阵
后发现没有想象的那么容易就少了很多. 这个记录也不是完全准确的,有几场比赛不知
道为什么软件不track,可能是有bug. 他们也不track prop bet. 在有记录的所有bet里
,虽然我的win%大于average break even win%,但总体是亏了的,应该是因为大的bet里
输多赢少的缘故. 我大部分是在5dimes reduced juice,也有一小部分在bovada, 总体
rake估计应该是3%左右. 最后还是没有能够beat rake, 输了0.8%
sharpbettracker可以把bet分类. 这个功能非常有用. 就是通过这个我发现我押总分就
是在给人送钱,后来再也不玩了. 我一开始还觉得押总分更容易,但是事实证明这个想法
是不靠谱的. 我不只是搞不过rake,连丢硬币猜两面都远不如. 我最最最失败的是押
total over. 押上半场总分虽然数据很少,但一个都没赢也是很奇葩的.
Total Over: 58 win - 74 loss - 1 tight, Win% 43.94%, -$1354.1
Total Under: 77 win - 82 loss - 1 tight, Win% 48.43%, -$386.45
1st half total over: 0 win - 3 loss, -$156.5
1st half total under: 0 win - 6 loss, -$317.5
Team total home under: 1 win - 0 loss, $100
Team total visitor over: 0 win - 1 loss, - %51.5
押spread也是小负一些,但没有押总分那么的不靠谱. 如果再细分一下, spread
visitor underdog还是可以的.
Spread Home Favorite 21 win - 20 loss, win% 51.22%, $51.95
Spread Home Underdog 6 win - 12 loss, win% 33.33%, -$373
Spread Visitor Favorite 58win-60loss- 3tight, win% 49.15%, -$754.48
Spread Visitor Underdog 79win-67loss-2tight, win% 54.11%, $448.02
真正在赢钱的是Moneyline.
M/L Home Favorite 6 win - 7 loss, win% 46.15%, -$333
M/L Home Underdog 38 win - 49 loss, win% 43.68%, $152.85
M/L Visitor Favorite 21 win - 6 loss, win% 77.78%, $972.5
M/L Visitor Underdog 124 win - 240 loss, win% 34.07%, $1491.63
1st half M/L Home Favorite 1 win - 2 loss, -$72.5
1st half M/L Home Underdog 1 win - 6 loss, -$206.8
1st half M/L Visitor Underdog 10 win - 5 loss, $367.6
2nd half M/L Home Underdog 0 win - 1 loss, -$30
2nd half M/L Visitor Underdog 0 win - 1 loss, -$50
目前最成功的赌法是押Moneyline, $2284; 最失败的是押总分,-$1741. Best team for
me, Spurs :), $1096; worst team for me, Over, -$1511.
Biggest winning streak: 16-0; Biggest losing streak: 0 -17. 所以说一次只能下
个1-2%是很有道理的. 我这才一千多场就已经碰到连输17场的情况了.
总结一下经验教训: 下个赛季只bet moneyline,再也不玩总分了. |
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