H*****r
发帖数: 764 | 1 Want to get an idea of what USC's NCAA appeal denial, announced Wednesday,
really means to the Trojans?
Read athletic director Pat Haden's comments from January, before the school
even sat with the Infractions Appeals Committee in Indianapolis later that
month.
"The reason I'm not terribly optimistic," Haden said at the time, "is just,
statistically, you only win 10 percent of appeals. The burden of proof is
high."
Too high, evidently. Too high for USC to publicly maintain much hope its
penalty would be reduced, and even too high in private circles among
administrators and coaches at the school. In their minds, this was never a
case likely to be won.
But to the players?
Many expected to be able to play in a bowl game this season and to be able
to compete into December for postseason position. Just look at some of their
tweets from last week, when a rumor spread through a portion of the team
that the punishments would all be lifted.
Part of that can be attributed to youthful exuberance and part to just not
knowing the odds.
The most important part of today's announcement, though, is not the lack of
a bowl game. That has long taken a back seat to the issue of scholarships,
something that will affect the Trojans for a much longer period of time.
Think about it: The last recruiting class for which the postseason ban is
relevant is already in the bag, already signed, sealed and (mostly)
delivered. The high-school seniors Lane Kiffin & Co. are recruiting for the
next class have always known they will be able to play in a bowl game in
2012 regardless of the appeal's outcome.
But the scholarship limits staying the same? That will really hurt. Over the
past several months, USC weirdly didn't appear to pay much attention to the
possible constraints on scholarships an appeal denial would entail. That
ended up being fine with the 2011 recruiting class, as the decision was
announced much later than February's national signing day, obviously, but it
's going to be a tough squeeze with the 2012 group.
The Trojans already have eight players committed to join next year's class,
per various reports, with one -- top local lineman Max Tuerk -- giving his
verbal commitment Wednesday morning, in fact. That leaves only seven open
spots for the maximum 15-player class, per NCAA-mandated restrictions that
now will come into play next season and stay active until 2015.
Also beginning next season is a 75-man overall scholarship limit for the
roster, which will make for even more squeezing. As of this writing, to our
best guess, USC plans to have 82 players on scholarship next season, with 58
spring-roster players, 21 newcomers and one returner (receiver Brice Butler
).
Only 13 of those players will exhaust their eligibility in 2011, giving USC
69 scholarship players for the 2012 season plus a class of newcomers -- and
the Trojans must somehow fit that into the 75-man limit.
That's what the Trojans will be dealing with, along with a sure-to-come bevy
of complaints from boosters and fans who took issue with Haden's non-
fighting strategy concerning the appeal.
Oh, and the whole "free agency" thing Kiffin talked about last year. That's
in effect again, giving every one of the country's Football Bowl Subdivision
schools an opportunity to recruit USC's 13 seniors to transfer and
immediately play in new locations.
It's unlikely it will have as big an impact this time as it did last summer |
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