a**i
发帖数: 608 | 5 Costco, Home depot, Lowes, Walmart, Target etc.
等都行动起来，大发飓风财，呵呵
Widlitz: Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Input Costs-Consumers' Triple Whammy
COST 77.33 +1.47
DG 32.51 +0.28
DLTR 69.84 +2.21
FDO 48.06 +0.91
HD 34.26 +0.42
On Friday August 26, 2011, 12:40 pm
Residents of the East Coast are getting a double whammy this week.
First, a 5.8 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter in Virginia shook
residents all the way to New York City. And now Hurricane Irene has her
sights set on us, with her first stop in North Carolina, following a path to
New York City and beyond.
While this may or may not be another "Storm of the Century," many consumers
remember our past friends Gloria (class of '85, $1 billion damage estimate),
Hugo (class of '89, est. $7 billion damage) and Andrew ('92, est. $30
billion damage - and my personal favorite, as I rode this one out in New
Orleans). And who could forget Katrina? (class of 2005, estimates up to $200
billlion damage).
While some of my favorite New Yorkers tell me they are heading to the cheese
and wine shop to prepare rather than to Home Depot (NYSE:HD - News), most
consumers are taking Irene seriously. First, the good news.
From an investment perspective, there are the obvious places. Consumers are
flocking to Home Depot and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW - News) stockpiling batteries,
flashlights, generators and plywood.
The Lowe's website has a preparation and clean-up guide, as the company does
not want you to forget anything at the register. The company also has a
video guide available in English and Spanish.
Home Depot also offers a checklist on their website. The areas in the path
of Irene encompass approximately one-fifth of the two home improvement
retailers. Not a bad opportunity to bump up third-quarter sales. And out-of-
stock items are being dealt with, as Home Depot and Lowe's are moving in
extra product from their warehouses. This is the kind of event these
retailers prepare for a year in advance.
After consumers have boarded up their windows, they will need to think about
food supplies and give themselves several days of provisions. Also fairly
obvious: the one-stop Walmart will be a beneficiary, as consumers look to
add non-perishable food, water and batteries. Pharmacy items are also
recommended, just in case. Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WMT - News) has also
embarked on a mission to return to the lowest cost provider. This may be a
good time to make that statement. While Walmart might not help you board up
your windows, they can satisfy just about every other need.
Don't forget the Dollar Stores (Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO - News), Dollar Tree
(NasdaqGS:DLTR - News) and Dollar General (NYSE:DG - News)). They have been
nipping at Wal-Mart's heels for some time now, as consumers prefer to do
fill in trips and stay closer to home. Also on the list: Costco (NASDAQ:
cost) for bulk items; and fuel comps should get a lift this month, as
consumers load up on gas before the storm hits.
Lastly, let's not forget about the four-legged family members. That is the
valuable lesson pet owners learned during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. That
puts PetSmart (NASDAQ: petm) on the list as well, as consumers add extra
food supplies for their pets.
And now for the potential negative news? Back-to-school dates are staggered
from North Carolina through the Tri-State area. But in general, school re-
opens anywhere from Aug. 25 (Charlotte) to Sept. 8 (NYC).
As consumer wallets remain tight, particularly in the middle- to low-income
range, stocking up on hurricane items could potentially pull dollars away
from that new backpack or pair of jeans that mom and dad were willing to
splurge on this weekend.
That's bad news for the retailers that do not have differentiated product in
an already inflationary environment (remember, input costs on apparel will
be up as much as double digits this fall). Now that may just turn a double
whammy into a triple whammy for East Coast retailers.
【在 s*****h 的大作中提到】
: 到时候电池商又该发愁了，好不容易卖出去了，结果又都退回来了……
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