w**z
发帖数: 8232 | 1 我还是觉得Amazon 会是对Netflix的巨大威胁。相比较Netflix 我宁愿付费Amazon
prime
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/has-amazon-surpassed-netflix-
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced via a press release today that it
has inked a deal with CBS Corporation (NYSE:CBS) that will see three of the
latter’s series made available exclusively to Amazon Prime members for
streaming. Included in the deal is CBS’s highly anticipated BrainDead, an
alien/zombie/political mashup about nothing getting done in Washington
because the members of Congress have had their brains eaten by aliens (based
on a true story I presume). The deal will also include two other original
series, the episodes of which will be available to Prime members just four
days after their original broadcast (they are not digital-only series, they
will still air first on CBS).
The deal expands upon the deal Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) had in place
with CBS Corporation (NYSE:CBS) for the streaming rights to Under the Dome
and Extant. In addition, the deal will see Amazon nab the streaming rights
to several SHOWTIME series and CBS films, including Penn & Teller, The
Tudors, The L Word, MacGyver, and Pride.
The deal appears to be another blow to Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), which
just lost the streaming rights to content from Epix, a collaboration between
MGM, Paramount, and Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) (NYSE:LGF), which
went into effect today. Netflix users in the U.S no longer have access to
the thousands of movies which were previously on the service courtesy of
that deal, with Hulu nabbing rights to those movies in its place (Amazon
also has a deal with Epix for those movie rights).
Instead, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) appears to be gambling that a smaller
collection of exclusive content will keep its subscribers content (content,
as in pleased; see what I did there?). However, with Amazon recently nabbing
exclusive rights to stream past HBO shows (sorry Game of Thrones fans, but
it will not be included in the deal), and also producing its own original
programming, one has to wonder if Netflix will even be the preferred choice
solely for exclusive content. Add in the fact that Prime members also get
Amazon’s free 2-day delivery service and that’s looking like a pretty
compelling deal compared to a currently-depleted Netflix. The only coup for
Netflix is it’s huge push into other countries, while Amazon’s Prime Video
Service is only available for Prime members in the U.S (though the Prime
delivery service is available in other areas, like Canada and the European
Union).
Netflix will gain exclusive access to Disney movies beginning next year, in
addition to producing its own exclusive movies, which will include flicks by
Adam Sandler (who doesn’t exactly have the cachet he used to), but in the
meantime it certainly appears to have lost its crown in the U.S and it will
be very interesting to see the effect that the Epix loss will have on
Netflix’s subscriber numbers in the fourth quarter. It will also be
interesting to see how elite investors react to Netflix’s shift in strategy
. Hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were quite bullish on Netflix as of
June 30, owning 15.40% of its shares, however that was before the
announcement at the end of August that it would not renew its deal with Epix.
Hedge funds and elite money managers like Carl Icahn tend to have the
largest amounts of their capital invested in large and mega-cap stocks like
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) because these
companies allow for much greater capital allocation. That’s why if we take
a look at the most popular stocks among funds, we won’t find any mid- or
small-cap stocks there. However, our backtests of hedge funds’ equity
portfolios between 1999 and 2012 revealed that the 50 most popular stocks
among hedge funds underperformed the market by seven basis points per month,
showing that their most popular picks and the ones that received the bulk
of their capital were not actually their best picks. On the other hand,
their top small-cap picks performed considerably better, outperforming the
market by 95 basis points per month. This was confirmed through backtesting
and in forward tests of our small-cap strategy since August 2012. The
strategy, which involves imitating the 15 most popular small-cap picks among
hedge funds has provided gains of 118%, beating the broader market by over
60 percentage points (see the details). | g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 2 Amazon is not much a contender. They spent 1.3 billion on content last year,
Netflix spent 3.2 billions. But Netflix has 18 times of traffic.
There are only so much an executive team can focus on. That's why not every
product from a giant tech company is a success. In fact, most of them are
failures.
Amazon Prime is a money losing business. People buy memberships for fast
shipping, not streaming. For that reason, Amazon can't go all in like how
they invest in warehouses. But streaming is a scale business. Without enough
users, there's no economics to bid for best content.
In today's TV model, Studio license contents to aggregators like HBO,
aggregators distribute through different distributors in different regions
like Comcast in US, and finally Comcast sells to end consumers. Netflix is
going to be a global studio sells to consumers directly in a couple of years
. You have to be a global studio, global aggregator and global distributor
with enough user base to compete. None of the existing companies can do two
well, let alone three. |
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