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发帖数: 4174 | 1 Posted on Advocate.com December 17, 2010
N.Y. Marriage: Hey, You Never Know
By Julie Bolcer
NY SENATE X390 | ADVOCATE.COM
There is work to be done in 2011, but marriage equality advocates are
betting on improved odds with a Republican senate majority in New York State.
As 2011 dawns, observers identify three states with strong prospects for
achieving marriage equality in the new year: Maryland, New York, and Rhode
Island. Among the three, New York boasts the largest population by far, with
nearly 20 million residents, and as the media capital of the country, the
state guarantees to put an even more intense spotlight on marriage equality
as landmark legal cases make their way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
“If some of the federal cases do wind up getting to the court in 2012, one
of the main things we can all do to help shape good results in the Supreme
Court down the road is to have more wins in 2011 in places like New York,”
said Evan Wolfson, executive director of Freedom to Marry, one of many
groups working on lobbying and public education campaigns in the state. “
Everyone has a stake in winning.”
Last December, New York got closest to flirting with marriage equality,
which ended in heartbreaking defeat at the hands of a Democratic-controlled
senate elected with millions of dollars in gay support in 2008. Marriage
equality lost by a vote of 38 to 24, with all 30 Republicans and eight
Democrats, including some who seemed to hint otherwise, voting against the
measure. The state assembly has already passed the bill three times, and
polls indicate that solid majorities of New Yorkers support marriage
equality.
Although Democrats could still dispute the November election results,
Republicans expect to be in control with a 32-30 majority when the senate
convenes in early 2011. Some observers view the new dynamic as a reason to
feel pessimistic about marriage equality, but many more seem to think the
leadership change, combined with evolving public attitudes and other
favorable political developments, leaves advocates in their strongest
position to date. Cautious optimism rules the day in New York, the state
with the legislature repeatedly ranked as the nation’s most dysfunctional,
and where the lottery motto once proclaimed, “Hey, you never know.”
First and foremost, despite the all but assured loss of the Democratic
majority, the senate saw a net gain of two votes for marriage equality this
election cycle, bringing the total number of anticipated yes votes to 26.
Where many insiders believe the winning formula involves a bipartisan effort
with anywhere from 27 to 29 Democrats and three to five Republicans in
favor, the numeric victory of 32 votes now appears more within reach.
More important than the raw vote count, however, is the way the new votes
were won. Groups like the Tim Gill–financed PAC Fight Back New York, the
Empire State Pride Agenda, and the Human Rights Campaign demonstrated their
ability to harness money and human power toward the defeat of incumbents who
voted against marriage equality. Targeted efforts in November ended the
careers of two long-term incumbents, a Republican from Queens and a Democrat
from Buffalo. The Queens victory in particular, coupled with pro-equality
candidates’ sweep of statewide offices, sends a signal to lawmakers in
nearby neighborhoods that it is time to support the bill, or else.
“Even more significant than doing the head count is the way that those
victories were achieved,” said Ross Levi, executive director of the Pride
Agenda. “The remaining legislators on both sides of the aisle have to be
thinking that they don’t want the strength of our community turned on them
in a similarly negative way.” | g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 2 In realpolitik the flip side of punishment is reward, where the same
substantial resources that defeated incumbents who vote against marriage
equality can also be allocated to protect lawmakers who support the bill.
The lesson could prove critical in courting Republicans, as at least four
and possibly as many as eight GOP senators are believed to be willing to
support the bill under the right conditions, which their camp argues failed
to materialize last year.
“There were at least four Republicans who would have considered voting yes
if the Democrats could get close, but they had no interest in committing
political suicide if the Democrats were as short as they were,” said
Republican strategist Roger Stone, who this year advised gubernatorial
nominee Carl Paladino but publicly rebuked the candidate for his antigay
comments.
Simply put, prospective Republican allies need to be assured the bill will
pass and that advocates can provide cover in the event their vote prompts a
primary or general election challenge from the right.
“We’re confident that if Democrats are able to provide the margin of
victory for a handful of Republicans, that those votes will be there,” said
Gregory T. Angelo, spokesman for the New York chapter of the Log Cabin
Republicans. “There are certainly enough to put the vote over the top.”
Angelo said his group plans to use the instructive example of assembly
member Janet Duprey in conversations with lawmakers. The Republican from the
upstate North Country lost the highly coveted nod of the Conservative Party
over her vote for marriage equality, but with the backing of Log Cabin and
other groups, she won a three-way general election with 62% of the vote in
November.
In addition to carrots and sticks, observers point to the larger history of
gay rights legislation under Republicans in New York. The Sexual Orientation
Non-Discrimination Act of 2003 and the hate-crimes bill of 2000 passed
under a Republican senate and were signed by a Republican governor, George
Pataki.
“The Republican Party has a huge opportunity to become the majority party
once again,” said consultant Tom Doherty, who served in the Pataki
administration. “They have a real opportunity to not be secondary citizens
anymore if on the social issues, particularly gay marriage, they send a
signal of what should be their conservative beliefs: We want less government
. That includes what two adults do in their own home.” | g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 3 On the other hand, even as they acknowledge mounting losses in the public
opinion wars, marriage equality foes project confidence with the brute fact
that, as of now, no majority exists for marriage equality in the state
senate. One such group is the New York State Catholic Conference, which
advocates for the public policy agenda of the state’s bishops, who
represent some 7.3 million Catholics. Even more than the National
Organization for Marriage, which has sought inroads into the state, the
conference is seen as a significant obstacle to the marriage equality bill
given the historic influence of the Catholic Church in New York.
“You never know until the votes are counted, but right now we’re pretty
comfortable that the votes aren’t there,” said Dennis Poust,
communications director for the conference. “Until we hear otherwise, we
assume that the senators who voted no are still nos.”
However, advocates hope the math will change quickly after the inauguration
of governor-elect Andrew Cuomo, a reform-minded Democrat expected to find
allies among senate Republicans who share his agenda of fiscal restraint.
Cuomo vowed to make marriage equality a “priority” in his campaign against
Carl Paladino, the ostracized Republican nominee who seemed to implode
after reading antigay remarks before ultra-Orthodox Jewish leaders.
“He’s a very adept politician,” said assembly member Daniel O’Donnell,
the Manhattan lawmaker who carried the marriage equality bill in his
Democratic-controlled chamber. “When you look at where the polling has been
and where it has gone, it’s yesterday’s politicians who are against it.
Governor-elect Cuomo is a tomorrow kind of politician.”
Previous pro-equality governors met their Waterloo in the legislature, as
happened with Eliot Spitzer, the sharp-elbowed former prosecutor and self-
declared “steamroller” who resigned because of a prostitution scandal. His
weakened successor, Gov. David Paterson, also tangled with the senate,
which shut down for a month in summer 2009 when a trio including Sen. Ruben
Diaz Sr., a Democrat and outspoken homophobe, orchestrated a coup.
Analysts say that with their reputation for more disciplined leadership,
senate Republicans could build a rapport with Cuomo starting on the all-
important budget this winter and spring and then move to consider issues
like marriage equality, where the gap between the players is wider.
“I think that we’re in a time period now where the government recognizes
that the governor and the state senate need to work together and find common
ground on a bunch of things and they have to barter back and forth,” said
Doherty, who added that he did not expect a marriage equality vote in the
first few months of the year. | g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 4 “You don’t want to have a battle early on for something you know is
controversial,” he said.
The new calculus also includes an encouraging recent announcement from
presumptive senate majority leader Dean Skelos, who said in October that,
subject to speaking with his Republican conference, he would recommend that
the marriage equality bill be brought to the floor for another vote. For the
first time, a pathway to marriage equality exists independent of which
party controls the senate.
"No matter what the political makeup of the senate, we will work with
everybody to do what's right so that all New Yorkers can be equal,” said
Brian Ellner, senior strategist for HRC’s Campaign for New York Marriage,
in an e-mailed statement. “Both Republicans and Democrats can and should be
for equality."
Others, however, parse the bit from Skelos about consulting with his
conference. They contend that the majority leader is vested with complete
authority, and that any reference to polling his members suggests hedging.
“When a legislative leader says, ‘We’ll see if my conference wants to
post it to a vote,’ that’s Albany speak for ‘fuck you,’” said the
strategist Stone.
Asked for additional comment on the senator’s position, a spokesman e-
mailed, “While Senator Skelos is personally opposed to same-sex marriage,
he believes that it should be easier to bring bills to the floor for an up-
or-down vote.”
But with the presumptive majority leader in the no column and not a single
Republican on record as supporting the bill, forward-looking observers press
the practical question of who exactly would champion the measure and bring
it to passage under the new leadership.
“In the end, bills of this kind don’t get passed without effective,
competent sponsors to navigate them through the system,” said assembly
member O’Donnell. “It’s unclear to me who would be the sponsor if to date
no Republican senator has said, ‘I want to vote for this.’”
Until now, the marriage equality bill’s lead sponsor has been Sen. Thomas K
. Duane, the out Democrat from Chelsea. Although unavailable for comment,
his office said through a spokesman that “Senator Duane is confident that
marriage equality is ultimately going to win in New York, and he is going to
fight to make that happen regardless of which party is in the majority.”
For now, advocates plan to double down on their efforts in 2011. Next up is
the annual marriage equality lobby day organized by the grassroots group
Marriage Equality New York in Albany. Sponsors hope to amplify their voices
in the state capital on February 8.
”Last yea, it was just us,” said MENY board president Cathy Marino-Thomas.
“This time we’re bringing our grandmothers, aunts, and cousins.” | g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 5 太长了，大意是：
尽管这次选举NY STATE SENATE共和党成了多数（32：30），同性婚姻还是很有希望
。NY州的民意支持GAY MARRIAGE，一些LGBT组织在帮助打败反同政客和支持友同候选
人方面展示了力量，一些摇摆的政客会考虑这些因素。GOP senators里有4-8个愿意在
适当的情况支持GAY MARRIAGE。上一次他们都投NO，是因为差的太远，没人愿意为一
个没希望的提案把饭碗丢了。
不管在联邦还是州一级，只要PARTY LINE开始打破，就会有很多好戏看了。 |
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