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发帖数: 4174 | 1 The economy’s rebounding, his approval ratings are ticking up, and the GOP
field is a mess. Mark McKinnon and Myra Adams on the president’s odds of a
return ticket to the White House.
President Obama’s poll ratings are climbing. And the online prediction
market Intrade has Obama at a 58.9 percent chance of winning a second term.
Though November 2012 is light years away in political time, as Team Obama
regroups in Chicago, they should be optimistic about their reelection
prospects. Here are 12 reasons why:
1. Power of Incumbency
In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21
of those candidates have won more than one term. Based on these historical
odds, Obama has a better-than-67-percent chance of winning reelection. In
2004, voters were not happy with the economy, the Iraq War or President Bush
generally, and still he was reelected.
2. Love Story Continues
Though the mainstream media is now sometimes critical of President Obama, he
has never faced the extreme 24-hour-a-day derangement that has plagued
other recent presidents and potential candidates-to-be. This gentle
treatment is worth millions to a campaign.
3. Billion-Dollar Campaign
According to Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, President Obama’s 2012
reelection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion. Not an
unreasonable assumption because he raised $750 million in 2008. Look for the
coming campaign to break all fundraising and spending records on both sides.
4. Experienced Campaign Organization
In 2008, the junior senator from Illinois assembled a team of outsiders that
defeated the Clinton machine and won the presidency with 365 electoral
votes to Sen. John McCain’s 173. With the same Chicago campaign team in
place, Obama will benefit from experience and memory; mistakes won’t be
repeated.
5. Obama’s Charm Offensive
Let’s face it, Obama knows how to turn it on and win crowds with his
oratory. He is personally likable, has an attractive family, and his
favorables are climbing. His Real Clear Politics average is at 49.9 percent.
That’s comfortably within the zone of the last three presidents to win
reelection. At 752 days into the first term, according to Gallup, President
Reagan’s approval rating fell to 37 percent. Clinton’s was at 47 percent,
and George W. Bush’s was 61 percent. If history is any guide, Obama has
nothing to fear at this point from Mr. Gallup.
6. Economy is Improving
As the economy goes, so goes Obama's reelection prospects. Yes, this is a
potential weakness, but there are signs of hope. And what is most important
is not what voters think about the economy at this hour, but rather whether
they think it is improving. The stock market is rising, and unemployment is
trending downward, albeit too slowly. Consumer spending is up, and 40
percent of Americans say the economy will improve over the next year. The
campaign theme may be: He brought us back from the brink.
. They’ll Be Back
The 2010 midterm voters that swept Republicans into control of the U.S.
House, governorships and state legislatures were older, whiter, and more
conservative than those who went to the polls in 2008. Despite this “white
flight” from the Democratic Party, young voters, more minorities, more
women, and generally more liberals will be back in 2012. Though some of the
liberal base may hold their nose, they’re not likely to desert the
Democratic incumbent in November. And there is no doubt that Obama’s
billion-dollar campaign fund will find some way to get his core constituents
to the polls.
8. Obama, “The Moderate”
Forty percent of Americans now see the president as a moderate. That’s up
10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of
independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago. If
congressional Republicans are viewed as strident and over-reaching, Obama
will be well positioned as a moderating force—with or without any
Clintonian triangulation.
9. Republican Sparring Match
With no obvious frontrunner at this point, the Republican primary season may
drag on and could be very messy. Tea Party support may be torn. And while
Republicans debate which candidate is more Reaganesque, Obama will stay
above the fray, looking presidential.
10. Neverending Campaign
Organizing for America never stopped working since 2008 and continuously
sends targeted emails to its 13 million members. Supporters are asked to
volunteer for service projects or call Congress to object to the vote on
repealing health care. It’s the presidential campaign that never ended.
11. Hispanic Vote Growing
Obama earned 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008 compared to McCain’s
31 percent. The Five State Voter Project, sponsored by The Hispanic
Institute, is under way to increase Hispanic voter participation in five
states: New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado. Winning all of
these states could seal the deal for Obama.
12. Several Paths to 270
There were five key red states that Obama won in 2008—Florida, Virginia,
Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina. Obama could lose every one of them in
2012 and still win reelection with 272 electoral votes. | p**s
发帖数: 1891 | 2 这么乐观?
12. Several Paths to 270
There were five key red states that Obama won in 2008—Florida, Virginia,
Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina. Obama could lose every one of them in
2012 and still win reelection with 272 electoral votes.
【在 g********d 的大作中提到】
: The economy’s rebounding, his approval ratings are ticking up, and the GOP
: field is a mess. Mark McKinnon and Myra Adams on the president’s odds of a
: return ticket to the White House.
: President Obama’s poll ratings are climbing. And the online prediction
: market Intrade has Obama at a 58.9 percent chance of winning a second term.
: Though November 2012 is light years away in political time, as Team Obama
: regroups in Chicago, they should be optimistic about their reelection
: prospects. Here are 12 reasons why:
: 1. Power of Incumbency
: In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21
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