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发帖数: 4174 | 1 Posted on Advocate.com October 13, 2011 06:26:40 PM ET
Poll Has Bad News for North Carolina, But Not All Bad
By Lucas Grindley
A new poll shows both a setback and an opportunity for opponents of a
marriage ban proposed in North Carolina.
Public Policy Polling found that 61% of North Carolinians now support the
antigay amendment to the state's constitution. The poll contradicted one
from Elon University in late September that showed only 39% support.
The Elon poll had spread optimism among the ranks of gay rights groups about
their chances of turning back the amendment at the ballot box — a rare
feat across the nation that has happened only once before in Arizona.
Most alarming for activists should be that the PPP survey found support
widespread regardless of party. Favoring the amendment were 80% of
Republicans, 52% of independents and 49% of Democrats. (Only 44% of
Democrats said they opposed the amendment.)
Still, there is a sign of hope. Both Elon and PPP found voters paradoxically
in favor of rights for same-sex couples.
When asked to support a specific type of union, 51% of voters picked either
marriage (22%) or civil unions (29%) — both of which would be banned under
the restrictive language of the North Carolina amendment. It would also ban
domestic partnerships.
"The problem for those trying to defeat the amendment is that 37% of voters
who support gay marriage or civil unions are still planning to vote for [the
amendment]," wrote Tom Jensen, director for PPP. "That suggests a lot of
folks aren't familiar with how wide reaching the proposed amendment would be
and it gives those fighting it a chance — they just have to get their
message out effectively to the majority of North Carolinians who do support
legal recognition for gay couples that the proposal goes too far."
Because the vote will be held in May in conjunction with the Republican
presidential primary (and a few state Democratic primaries), voter turnout
is widely expected to be lower than had the referendum been held, as
originally proposed, in November alongside the presidential and general
election.
So finding the voters who agree with you and then getting them to the polls
becomes pivotal for both sides. |
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