j**n
发帖数: 13789 | 1 依我看，军事政府这次保护抗议者也有可能是一次利用，趁机推翻文人政府
总统和内阁都倒台，军人上台以后可能比穆巴拉克更硬，因为他们手里有武器
美国现在也担心谁上台
现在的副总统倒是个真心想搞改革的开明人士，可惜大多数情况下不会被军事政府挽留
，我猜 | j**n
发帖数: 13789 | 2 按照六四的经验就是民主运动要适可而止，要不然会适得其反
六四下去一个赵紫阳上来一个江泽民
埃及也极有可能失去有改革意志的文人政府，上来一个鹰派军人政府 | j**n
发帖数: 13789 | 3 Democracy In Egypt An Uncertainty, Analysts Fear
February 11, 2011
Egyptians welcomed military rule Friday with a massive display of joy.
Protesters across Cairo reveled at the victory they had wrought, and
Egyptian reporters on cable TV channels were reduced to tears as they sought
to convey their happiness.
But many questions remain about what comes next — and there are strong
doubts about whether military rule will lead to the demonstrators' ultimate
goal: a credible transition to democracy.
"The heavy lifting begins now," says Robert Springborg, a professor at the U
.S. Naval Postgraduate School. "Now is the time for the military to confront
its moment of truth."
More Questions Than Answers
Recently appointed Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman announced the
dramatic shift in a simple, one-sentence address on state TV. He said
President Hosni Mubarak had decided to waive his office as president and
asked "the Armed Forces Supreme Council to run the state."
As with just about every official pronouncement these past two weeks, it
left many more questions than answers. Will a new, more democratic
constitution be created and when? Will the Parliament, filled with Mubarak
loyalists, be dissolved? Will elections scheduled for September go ahead, be
rescheduled or be put off? And what about the opposition leaders who've
emerged over the past three weeks?
If the Ministry of Interior, the police, and all of that stays around, it's
hard to see how Egyptians' daily lives would be substantively improved a
year from now.
- Jason Brownlee, University of Texas, Austin
"We don't know how this new military junta will interact with them," says
David Patel of Cornell University. "Will it just consult with them? Even if
the military today says it wants early elections, the question is whether
that opposition is part of this interim regime."
During 18 days of street demonstrations, there were numerous signs that the
military — or at least some junior members — were siding with protesters.
Some stood together with protesters on military tanks and some outright
joined the ranks in Tahrir Square. On Friday, before the takeover
announcement, military personnel in Alexandria handed out water bottles to
demonstrators. A growing number of protesters had been asking for what they
call "the people's army" to step in and launch a coup.
Still, Jason Brownlee, of the University of Texas, Austin, questions whether
Egypt's military really has a sovereign, civilian government in mind.
"I don't see evidence the military is willing to go backstage," he says. The
message could be "we've heard you, we've responded, congratulations, now go
home."
Brownlee thinks protesters might keep more of their new leverage if they
maintain a peaceful presence on the streets, pushing for broader change in
the overall security regime. "If the Ministry of Interior, the police, and
all of that stays around," he says, "it's hard to see how Egyptians' daily
lives would be substantively improved a year from now."
Protesters have made clear they want not only Mubarak's departure but true
regime change.
"There are tens of thousands of members of the regime and the military-
industrial complex," analyst Patel says. "How many of those people are going
to see their patronage-based positions challenged?"
Protests In Egypt
Springborg, of the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, says Egypt's military has
ossified for decades, with little role other than to support the president.
The institution "needs to be modernized and subject to civilian control,"
he says. "They're going to fight that and it's going to be a huge issue."
Egypt's Long Military History
Egypt's military has been integral to governance ever since it staged a
revolt against the Egyptian monarchy and its British advisers in 1952.
That's when Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser led a clandestine group of junior "Free
Officers" to seize power, with the aim of modernizing and democratizing
Egypt. But the leadership was beset with infighting. Nasser's plans for a
vibrant socialist economy foundered. A fairly liberal constitution was
eventually written, but never implemented.
Today's top military officials see themselves as the heirs of those Free
Officers. But Robert Scales, the former commandant of the U.S. Army War
College, says there's a generational split that could prove crucial.
"One is the old guard represented by Field Marshal Tantawi, and [recently
named vice president Omar] Suleiman and others, and then you have the young
guard, those who came up in the Egyptian army after the '73 Yom Kippur War.
And what you see is a sort of internal tension that seems to be evolving
inside the army, as one part seeks to hold on to the old and the younger
generation looks for the new."
Scales notes the older generation was trained by the Soviets, while the
younger one has been trained and educated by the U.S., "and so there really
is a cultural rift."
Military Links To Economy
On Friday, Egypt's military said that Defense Minister Tantawi was presiding
over the Supreme Council, the military body that has taken control of the
state.
An Egyptian anti-government protester laughs as he shakes the hand of a
soldier during celebrations at Cairo's Tahrir Square on Feb 11 after
president Hosni Mubarak stepped down. Flag-waving Egyptians danced, sang and
cheered as they bid farewell to Hosni Mubarak's 30-year regime, but triumph
was tempered with apprehension as they looked ahead to military rule.
Enlarge Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images
An Egyptian anti-government protester laughs as he shakes the hand of a
soldier during celebrations at Cairo's Tahrir Square on Feb 11 after
president Hosni Mubarak stepped down. Flag-waving Egyptians danced, sang and
cheered as they bid farewell to Hosni Mubarak's 30-year regime, but triumph
was tempered with apprehension as they looked ahead to military rule.
An Egyptian anti-government protester laughs as he shakes the hand of a
soldier during celebrations at Cairo's Tahrir Square on Feb 11 after
president Hosni Mubarak stepped down. Flag-waving Egyptians danced, sang and
cheered as they bid farewell to Hosni Mubarak's 30-year regime, but triumph
was tempered with apprehension as they looked ahead to military rule.
Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images
An Egyptian anti-government protester laughs as he shakes the hand of a
soldier during celebrations at Cairo's Tahrir Square on Feb 11 after
president Hosni Mubarak stepped down. Flag-waving Egyptians danced, sang and
cheered as they bid farewell to Hosni Mubarak's 30-year regime, but triumph
was tempered with apprehension as they looked ahead to military rule.
Top commanders, all with strong political ties to Mubarak, may have decided
they needed to break with him for the sake of their own legitimacy. But they
still have a vital stake in the status quo, not just politically but also
economically.
In a strange public-private alliance forged decades ago, Egyptian military
officers own a share in just about every industry in the country, from road
construction to car assembly to tourism. This could lead to a serious clash
with protesters who've been calling for an end to corruption and for Mubarak
to be put on trial.
"To investigate the transgressions of the regime is to take it directly into
the military economy," says Springborg. Military leaders have "less than
zero interest in having an investigation of that."
The military on Friday also said it would end the 30-year-old state of
emergency "as soon as the current circumstances are over." And that it would
oversee a revision of the constitution to allow "free and fair presidential
elections."
But rewriting a constitution is a long and complicated process. So far, the
opposition that's coalesced on the streets of Cairo and other cities has
agreed on one key thing: Mubarak's departure. Whether they can agree on
broader goals during a protracted debate on constitutional policy is an open
question.
Springborg suspects that a real constitutional overhaul is not on the
military's agenda. The current document heavily centralizes power in a
strong president, something he believes top commanders are loath to change.
"I think the military would breathe a sigh of relief if they had a
successful [presidential] candidate under the current constitution," he says
. "Someone who won't challenge its privileges and powers." | p*****i
发帖数: 739 | 4 苏莱曼和埃军元帅都是原政权的操盘手，穆巴拉克的左膀右臂，都不是有真正意愿搞改
革。这次美国玩了一个乾坤大挪移。我个人觉得美国和过渡政府会争取时间，积极物色
和包装自己人，打击兄弟会。这里面，欧洲大陆势力和美国势力有摩擦，欧洲大陆势力
远比美国积极。个人认为这些都是次要，如果埃及和北非的经济问题不解决，宗教极端
势力绝对会很猖獗。虽然不少人认为国际资本会帮助这个地区的经济发展，但北非是欧
洲的后院，阿拉伯世界是西方的提款机，阿拉伯世界人口爆炸在宗教助力下更是对欧洲
一个巨大直接威胁，我真的不乐观。
【在 j**n 的大作中提到】
: 依我看，军事政府这次保护抗议者也有可能是一次利用，趁机推翻文人政府
: 总统和内阁都倒台，军人上台以后可能比穆巴拉克更硬，因为他们手里有武器
: 美国现在也担心谁上台
: 现在的副总统倒是个真心想搞改革的开明人士，可惜大多数情况下不会被军事政府挽留
: ，我猜
| k****g
发帖数: 1509 | 5 Brother, you got it.
【在 j**n 的大作中提到】
: 依我看，军事政府这次保护抗议者也有可能是一次利用，趁机推翻文人政府
: 总统和内阁都倒台，军人上台以后可能比穆巴拉克更硬，因为他们手里有武器
: 美国现在也担心谁上台
: 现在的副总统倒是个真心想搞改革的开明人士，可惜大多数情况下不会被军事政府挽留
: ，我猜
| j**n
发帖数: 13789 | 6 无脑的市民们还沉浸在狂欢之中，好像走了个穆巴拉克就是天堂了
【在 k****g 的大作中提到】
: Brother, you got it.
|
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