s*********t
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renxiaoyao (逍遥) 于 (Wed Dec 14 19:01:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
用数据说话，大家可以看到从2010年开始，华州的学费点买进价已经严重超过卖出价。而到今年，已经达到史无前例的159％。这表明华州的５２９计划用新钱pay旧钱benefit已经到了临界点，庞式骗局业已到头了。难怪现在开车的时候电台里都是５２９的广告，原来就是为了骗新钱br />
Year Purchase Pay
1999 $35.00 $33.75
2000 $38.00 $35.19
2001 $41.00 $36.42
2002 $42.00 $38.64
2003 $52.00 $45.31
2004 $57.00 $48.63
2005 $61.00 $51.81
2006 $66.00 $55.05
2007 $70.00 $58.80
2008 $74.00 $64.00*
2009 $76.00 $67.20*
2010 $101.00 $76.00
2011 $117.00 $85.92
2012 $163.00 $102.23
http://blog.rlucas.net/finance/washington-state-529-program-get
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lihuahuhu (huhu) 于 (Wed Dec 14 19:03:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
前辈说咋办呢
我的理解是现在州里要加消费税加收入税
这些钱会补这个窟窿
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Seattlian (Seattleite) 于 (Wed Dec 14 19:11:01 2011, 美东) 提到:
庞氏骗局，愿者上钩。
。而到今年，已经达到史无前例的159％。这表明华州的５２９计划用新钱pay旧钱
benefit已经到了临界点，庞式骗局业已到头了。难怪现在开车的时候电台里都是５２
９的广告，原来就是为了骗新钱上船
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renxiaoyao (逍遥) 于 (Thu Dec 15 21:26:22 2011, 美东) 提到:
That's my gut feeling after comparing the previous rate and the current rate
. But here is my analysis:
The past decade inflation rate is close to 3%, but from 2008~2010 it's low
due to weak economy. This year the inflation is high due to multiple OEs and
higher labor cost in China.
The past tuition increasing rate is between 7%~8% per year, but recent years
it's skyrocket high due to deep budget cut.
Let's say in average, the annual tuition rate is higher than the inflation
rate about 5%. Your money, if doing regular investment, beating inflation
rate is the bottom line. So, if your invested money return is higher than 5%
annually after tax and inflation, you could meet the target of beating the
tuition rate increase. This is a difficult task and most people probably can
't make it (even with the hired professionals running the GET fund).
Now, the rate difference is 60% between purchase and return. In order to
balance that 60%, with an annual return of 5%, you will still need
continuous 9.5 years to make it even. In another word, if your kid is 8
years now, you will lose money if you do GET if your kid go to college at 18
. That's assuming you could do a significantly good job in your investment
to meet the 5% after tax, after inflation return.
So now, there is a hole in the fund and those hired crooks can't get it
filled by the investment they are doing. So they can only make it even by
using more and more significantly hijacked rate difference between buying in
and redeeming ,out of the new money to cover the hole. But the equation won
't converge because with higher rate, less people will be interested in
buying the points to pay tuition benefit for the people who are already in.
the diverged result is some day, when the 529 plan collapses, who ever
entered the plan currently or later will get burnt with nothing left.
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renxiaoyao (逍遥) 于 (Fri Dec 16 01:11:10 2011, 美东) 提到:
then higher tax or other money needs to be pulled to fill the hole. But,
remember the government can be bankrupted as well, then what promise it will
keep is unknown.
that being said, the fact that paying 60% extra today of nowadays college
tuition for tomorrow's tuition, sounds crazy to me. UW's current resident
tuition is $10575 per year. you need to pay $67680 TODAY if you enroll in
GET in order to have your kid college tuition free in future.
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sonofagun (止戈为武) 于 (Fri Dec 16 01:57:28 2011, 美东) 提到:
one thing you missed, local government can go bankurpt, but by the law,
state government can not go bankrupt.
States, if they cannot pay, instead must "repudiate" their debts. an effort
to repudiate debts would cause a state constitution crisis that could lead
to things like courts ordering tax increases or asset sales. in short, state
bankrupcy does not appear to really be possible.
so basiclly, if GET really can not support itself, state will stop incoming
enrollment, then all state tax payer will pay for the tuition of the already
enrolled people by law no matter you like it or not. you can choose move
out of the state of Washington, but as along as you stay here, you will pay.
will
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sonofagun (止戈为武) 于 (Fri Dec 16 10:08:33 2011, 美东) 提到:
if only for GET, legislature by law has to approve the alternative funding
to support GET.
if state need to increase tax because of facing no money to pay the debt,
legislature will need to vote first for tax increasing, or Court will decide it for you.
so by the constitution, state garantee is a very serious thing.
there were some GOPs talking about allowing the state to bancrupt, but
because the impact is so huge ( could dissolve the bankrupted state from
federal) and process is so complicated ( constitution modification), there
is no one really serious about it.
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sonofagun (止戈为武) 于 (Fri Dec 16 10:39:27 2011, 美东) 提到:
所以说，通过研究宪法和破产法，我认为GET 是相对最安全的投资。真是要到联邦修宪
容许州破产，华州决排不上需要破产的前20名。要是真的连华州都要破产了， 美国就
完了，这点教育基金的钱真不是你需要考虑。你的所有退休投资都得打水漂，即便是现
金也是废纸一张。
所以你要是真的很担心GET付不了帐，你就不应该买任何的退休基金。你所有的余钱都
得买黄金。外加4把AR15狙击步枪，4把手枪，4付防弹衣和防毒面具， 1000个催泪弹，
20万发子弹，1年的粮食储备和水。另外别忘了换钢筋水泥的房子，不需要抗核弹，能抗
子弹就成。 | T***E
发帖数: 996 | 2 如果不是一次性买，选择locking in and montly payment, 还要付7.5%的finance
charge就是interest rate,这个很猛
99年买的人很爽啊，13年翻3倍，8.8%的年回报
。而到今年，已经达到史无前例的159％。这表明华州的５２９计划用新钱pay旧钱
benefit已经到了临界点，庞式骗局业已到头了。难怪现在开车的时候电台里都是５２
９的广告，原来就是为了骗新钱�
【在 s*********t 的大作中提到】
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: renxiaoyao (逍遥) 于 (Wed Dec 14 19:01:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
: 用数据说话，大家可以看到从2010年开始，华州的学费点买进价已经严重超过卖出价。而到今年，已经达到史无前例的159％。这表明华州的５２９计划用新钱pay旧钱benefit已经到了临界点，庞式骗局业已到头了。难怪现在开车的时候电台里都是５２９的广告，原来就是为了骗新钱br />
: Year Purchase Pay
: 1999 $35.00 $33.75
: 2000 $38.00 $35.19
: 2001 $41.00 $36.42
: 2002 $42.00 $38.64
: 2003 $52.00 $45.31
: 2004 $57.00 $48.63
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