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发帖数: 612 | 1 希望通过几个关键数据尽可能客观地反映一些真实情况，以避免一叶障目盲人摸象。对
错欢迎指正。下面均是king county residential的数据。由于成交通常滞后一个月，
所以价格方面的指数也会滞后一个月左右。
1. Pending listings. 从2018年4/5月份开始不断下滑的状态以来终于有所复苏，其实
12月份就已经有了苗头。
Pending Listings, Number of
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019
Jan 1,516 1,654 1,517 1,769
Feb 1,911 1,770 1,662
Mar 2,465 2,350 2,387
Apr 2,595 2,432 2,346
May 3,017 3,028 2,894
Jun 2,904 2,930 2,530
Jul 2,653 2,563 2,274
Aug 2,689 2,623 1,939
Sep 2,360 2,288 1,871
Oct 2,294 2,348 1,885
Nov 1,831 1,853 1,561
Dec 1,352 1,221 1,176
2. Months of inventory.一月份依然不乐观，相对而言说明市场还有很多待售房子
Months of Inventory
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019
Jan 1.6 1 1 2.5
Feb 1.4 1 .9
Mar 1 .8 .9
Apr 1.2 .9 .9
May 1 .8 1.1
Jun 1 .8 1.3
Jul 1.3 1.1 1.6
Aug 1.2 1 1.9
Sep 1.4 1.2 2.8
Oct 1.2 1.1 2.4
Nov 1 .8 2.2
Dec .8 .6 1.8
3. list price. 相对于前几年似乎没有什么明显不同。卖家起始期望值依然偏高
List Price, Median
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019
Jan $535,000 $599,800 $658,726 $714,800
Feb $529,000 $599,950 $699,700
Mar $559,000 $625,000 $700,000
Apr $550,000 $619,000 $699,000
May $569,000 $649,970 $700,000
Jun $554,900 $630,000 $699,000
Jul $539,000 $625,000 $679,000
Aug $529,950 $609,886 $659,950
Sep $568,800 $649,000 $699,000
Oct $550,000 $645,000 $689,970
Nov $539,900 $619,975 $664,950
Dec $519,000 $619,995 $659,950
4. Sale to list ratio. 显然过去的半年买家有一定的讨价还价余地。大家所谓的"
deals"在11/12月份比较多出现
Sale Price to List Price Ratio
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019
Jan 100.8% 101.2% 101.5% 98.4%
Feb 101.8% 102.5% 104.3%
Mar 103.2% 104.1% 104.9%
Apr 103.6% 105.5% 105.3%
May 104.0% 105.6% 104.7%
Jun 103.5% 105.3% 103.1%
Jul 102.7% 104.0% 101.5%
Aug 101.9% 102.9% 100.5%
Sep 101.2% 102.1% 99.5%
Oct 101.2% 101.9% 99.2%
Nov 101.0% 101.7% 98.8%
Dec 101.0% 101.3% 98.5%
5. Sale price.如上所述，过去的几个月出现较多的“deals”。一月份实际价格有待
下个月验证。
Sale Price, Median
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019
Jan $495,000 $530,000 $623,000 $609,950
Feb $513,000 $575,000 $649,950
Mar $535,000 $599,950 $700,000
Apr $535,600 $632,000 $725,000
May $560,940 $640,000 $724,775
Jun $578,080 $655,000 $718,000
Jul $550,000 $658,500 $700,000
Aug $550,000 $650,000 $659,750
Sep $537,250 $630,000 $671,000
Oct $555,000 $632,625 $670,000
Nov $552,200 $635,000 $640,000
Dec $550,000 $640,000 $640,000
综上所述，一月份出现了一个局部拐点，目前价格基本回归2017年春天标准，未来来说
，一种可能性是回归上升通道，一种可能性是短期回调然后继续延续下跌。从突然增加
pending的角度看，第一种可能性比较大。西雅图房市需求未来几年一直存在，供需依
然没有达到平衡，这对买家卖家其实都是好消息，宏观经济形势以及美联储的影响应该
比较明显，过去半年就是明显的例子，未来依然是主要变量。
以上为本人独创，转载欢迎请注明出处
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