M*****8 发帖数: 17722 | 1 SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
SPY, 20081020, 98.6900, -8.9523, -9.1
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
DIA, 20081020, 92.9000, -8.3296, -9.0
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
QQQQ, 20081020, 33.2200, -2.9920, -9.0 | M*****8 发帖数: 17722 | 2 SPY, DIA and QQQQ are all very close in terms of readings.
Bear in mind that this is a pre-election, political rally, with significant
artificial price-lift.
The market appears very much over-bought, however, so it may not look good (
for the bulls) right after the election, as price-lift is no longer useful.
Always scale in and scale out, whether bearish or bullish, that way you don'
t miss the ride and can also average down your cost if prices get even more
extreme (i.e. favorable) before reve | M*****8 发帖数: 17722 | 3 The following message was posted on Saturday evening (发信站: BBS 未名空间站
(Sat Nov 1 19:12:24 2008) but somehow disappeared.
So I am posting it once more.
最新的预测显示在星期五(20081031),股市遭受强力的人为干预,原先预期的短期百
分之十二跌幅,突然一天内锐减几乎三分之二。
这种情况很少见,但无论如何,对熊有利的因素几乎已不存在。短期市场下跌已无把
握,即使跌,幅度也有限,约百分之四到五。短期低风险的卖空机会需要的是百分之减
九或更减。
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
QQQQ, 20081031, 33.0700, -1.5529, -4.7 <-= 强力人为干预。 | M*****8 发帖数: 17722 | 4
SPY,DIA 的情况也一样
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
SPY, 20081031, 97.1100, -4.1045, -4.2 <-= 强力人为干预。
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
DIA, 20081031, 93.6900, -4.2612, -4.5 <-= 强力人为干预。
Any and all information presented herein are for your information (FYI) only
. They are not specific recommendations or advice, and must not be construed
as such. Stock and option markets involve high risk and total wipe-out of
capital is possible. Be sure to
【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】 : The following message was posted on Saturday evening (发信站: BBS 未名空间站 : (Sat Nov 1 19:12:24 2008) but somehow disappeared. : So I am posting it once more. : : 最新的预测显示在星期五(20081031),股市遭受强力的人为干预,原先预期的短期百 : 分之十二跌幅,突然一天内锐减几乎三分之二。 : 这种情况很少见,但无论如何,对熊有利的因素几乎已不存在。短期市场下跌已无把 : 握,即使跌,幅度也有限,约百分之四到五。短期低风险的卖空机会需要的是百分之减 : 九或更减。 : SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
| M*****8 发帖数: 17722 | 5 股市还未到更超买(OverBought, i.e. -9% or thereabouts), 今天就提早开始大跌。
除非有强力人为因素,否则将意味市场实际情况比预测的还熊。
但既然跌了,根据过去情形,要到百分之加六以上(i.e. +6% or better)才有比较安全
的反弹。
所以心中估计目前市场可能还会再跌一两天,但这只是暂时的猜测,还要看最新的预测
给出的结果是如何,之后才会比较了解未来情况。
【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】 : : SPY,DIA 的情况也一样 : SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT : SPY, 20081031, 97.1100, -4.1045, -4.2 <-= 强力人为干预。 : SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT : DIA, 20081031, 93.6900, -4.2612, -4.5 <-= 强力人为干预。 : Any and all information presented herein are for your information (FYI) only : . They are not specific recommendations or advice, and must not be construed : as such. Stock and option markets involve high risk and total wipe-out of : capital is possible. Be sure to
| M*****8 发帖数: 17722 | 6
Politically speaking, you're right and I thought about that also.
But I was referring to the normal extreme zones of the forecast
readings.
The numbers did not reach there.
Not that I was surprised, since the market was overbought, though
certainly not extremely so, based on last night's forecasts, which
indicated a magnitude of 3.5 to 5% decline in the event of a price
decline. I would have preferred the percent to be closer to -9 or
better, for a good short-term sell signal.
If the sell-off |
|