u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 1 感觉所有问题的关键在于趋势预测和估计
不管是TA 还是 FA
TA 基于 图形或统计， 预测pattern的可重复性
FA 基于各种数据， 预测经济状况和公司经营情况
各位大牛都有什么高明的预测手段？ |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 2 野鸡FA worse than no FA at all, it give u a bias. |
x*********x
发帖数: 1402 | |
f*******4
发帖数: 345 | 4 Cannot agree more.
I reckon FA is much harder than TA, as it needs quite a lot of background
knowledge from macroeconomics to microeconomics and corporate finance, etc.
All the bull shares operated by MM are already FAed by MM and most of them
have sound fundamentals, so TA actually leverage MM's FA.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 野鸡FA worse than no FA at all, it give u a bias.
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 5 Do you mean "Sentiment Analysis" on "SA"?
【在 x*********x 的大作中提到】
: TA跟FA都过时了，现在流行SA
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 6 Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I was having the same ideas as you do before.
But as you know, sometimes the TA itself will drive you crazy since it could
lead to contradictory conclusions. For example, in many times, the
momentum analysis will have different conclusion with the oscillator
analysis. And for pattern recognition, the same shape could lead to
different opinions.
Come to an end, I now believe the TA needs to be guided by FA. FA is still
essential if you are about to hold the stock long.
.
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】
: Cannot agree more.
: I reckon FA is much harder than TA, as it needs quite a lot of background
: knowledge from macroeconomics to microeconomics and corporate finance, etc.
: All the bull shares operated by MM are already FAed by MM and most of them
: have sound fundamentals, so TA actually leverage MM's FA.
|
f*******4
发帖数: 345 | 7 TA should be simple instead of complicated.
If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it.
Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to
clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up
or down at a equal chance.
We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every
work day.
could
still
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
: I was having the same ideas as you do before.
: But as you know, sometimes the TA itself will drive you crazy since it could
: lead to contradictory conclusions. For example, in many times, the
: momentum analysis will have different conclusion with the oscillator
: analysis. And for pattern recognition, the same shape could lead to
: different opinions.
: Come to an end, I now believe the TA needs to be guided by FA. FA is still
: essential if you are about to hold the stock long.
:
|
h*******y
发帖数: 1563 | 8 this is a good point!
up
every
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】
: TA should be simple instead of complicated.
: If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it.
: Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to
: clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up
: or down at a equal chance.
: We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every
: work day.
:
: could
: still
|
o****r
发帖数: 132 | 9 炒股要学会跳出习惯思维。
趋势预测和炒股盈利可以分开。
预测准确并不能保证盈利，不预测也能获利。
有一种策略是通过提供流通性获利，就是一例。
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 感觉所有问题的关键在于趋势预测和估计
: 不管是TA 还是 FA
: TA 基于 图形或统计， 预测pattern的可重复性
: FA 基于各种数据， 预测经济状况和公司经营情况
: 各位大牛都有什么高明的预测手段？
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 10
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~通过提供流通性获利，zkss?
【在 o****r 的大作中提到】
: 炒股要学会跳出习惯思维。
: 趋势预测和炒股盈利可以分开。
: 预测准确并不能保证盈利，不预测也能获利。
: 有一种策略是通过提供流通性获利，就是一例。
|
|
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 11 非常同意 阿飞 的观点。
Simple is beautiful. So we always need to make a decisioin to favor one part
to avoid conflicts. And as you said, if we can not make a decision to
favor one part, just quit this one.
So the key questions is still the "decision". When the stock ( or the market
) is down, do we favor the "oversold" condition to buy or to favor the
momentum to sell? Probably it will depends on what price it is at the
moment or depends on what the momentum it is on a longer term. Then we will
still need a similar on the longer term.
Maybe the simple truth is to make less decisions and make simple ones.
up
every
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】
: TA should be simple instead of complicated.
: If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it.
: Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to
: clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up
: or down at a equal chance.
: We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every
: work day.
:
: could
: still
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 12 没错， 你说得很对， 如果有足够多的钱， 可以通过提供流动获利。 Market Maker
就是例子。
但即使MM也面临着风险。如果你仔细观察MM 的BID-ASK spread, 你会发现他们也经常
在根据自己的预测进行BID-ASK 调整。
【在 o****r 的大作中提到】
: 炒股要学会跳出习惯思维。
: 趋势预测和炒股盈利可以分开。
: 预测准确并不能保证盈利，不预测也能获利。
: 有一种策略是通过提供流通性获利，就是一例。
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 13 没错， 你说得很对， 如果有足够多的钱， 可以通过提供流动获利。 Market Maker
就是例子。
但即使MM也面临着风险。如果你仔细观察MM 的BID-ASK spread, 你会发现他们也经常
在根据自己的预测进行BID-ASK 调整。
【在 o****r 的大作中提到】
: 炒股要学会跳出习惯思维。
: 趋势预测和炒股盈利可以分开。
: 预测准确并不能保证盈利，不预测也能获利。
: 有一种策略是通过提供流通性获利，就是一例。
|
o****r
发帖数: 132 | 14 我只是提供一个例子来说明预测趋势和炒股获利的关系。
有的操作更看重预测风险的大小或波动的大小，而非上下的趋势来获利。
大资金有大资金的玩法，小资金有小资金的玩法。
有心人还是能举一反三，找到适合自己的操作策略。
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 没错， 你说得很对， 如果有足够多的钱， 可以通过提供流动获利。 Market Maker
: 就是例子。
: 但即使MM也面临着风险。如果你仔细观察MM 的BID-ASK spread, 你会发现他们也经常
: 在根据自己的预测进行BID-ASK 调整。
:
|
x****7
发帖数: 895 | 15 2nd this.
up
every
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】
: TA should be simple instead of complicated.
: If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it.
: Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to
: clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up
: or down at a equal chance.
: We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every
: work day.
:
: could
: still
|
