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发帖数: 2131 | 1 This story from Wall Street Cheat Sheet
Egypt has been embroiled in political turmoil since protests, inspired by
those that overthrew the regime in Tunisia, started last week.While Egypt,
and its Suez Canal, have been worry one for investors world wide since last
week, the next big question is whether this dissent could spread to other
countries around the region, and world.
It’s a challenge to state led authoritarian capitalism, but it is also a
response to rising food costs and soaring unemployment. There is also the
social media factor, which has allowed protesters to circumvent traditional
state run media sources and organize more efficiently.
What countries offer a similar mixture to that found in Egypt? And what
investments are at stake?
Morocco: Reforms already lined up
Investments to watch: SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)Style
of government: Constitutional Monarchy
Inflation: 2.6% year-over-year in December
Unemployment: Among graduates, 25%, Total rate at 9.1%
Social media: Very much a serious part of youth culture
Conclusion: Morocco’s government has already undergone democratic reforms,
so any political pressure would likely be responded to in a similar manner,
with more reforms. Those very reforms have been suggested by a government
commission, so Morocco seems pretty safe at the moment, prepared to adjust
if things get out of hand.
Jordan: King Abdullah tries to get ahead of the crisis
Investments to watch: SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)Style
of government: Constitutional monarchy, incorporating limited democracy
Inflation: Jordanian inflation up 6.1% year-over-year in December, 1.2%
month-over-month
Unemployment: Around 14%
Social media: 38-39% of Jordanians have internet access
Conclusion: Jordan is already experiencing protests related to these factors
. The government is responding by providing food and fuel subsidies. King
Abdullah just sacked his government and appointed a new one with reforms
priority number one. Whether the government moves fast enough to implement
these reforms will be the deciding factor in the future size of protests and
threat to the regime.
Syria: President pushing for reform already
Image: Wikimedia Commons
Investments to watch: NoneStyle of government: Single party authoritarian,
President Bashar al-Assad
Inflation: Government intends to take action to lower prices
Unemployment: 8.1% in 2009
Social media: Facebook still openly used by the public, searches for Egypt
on computers, however, crash them.
Conclusion: The economic situation is not as dire in Syria as in other
countries. The regime is, arguably, more ruthless than its Egyptian
counterpart. The President believes his partnership with Iran and support
for the Palestinian cause will keep him safe, and he’s already pushing for
reforms. Syria’s state may be too powerful for the little protest movement
developing to flourish.
Saudi Arabia: Massive military strength may be enough to quell social
dissent
Investments to watch: WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund (GULF), Market
Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES)Style of government: Absolute Monarchy
Inflation: Inflation at 5.4% in December, down from November
Unemployment: 10% in 2010
Social media: 3 million Saudi Arabians are on Facebook, with Twitter usage
increasing quickly
Conclusion: Saudi Arabia has seen some small protests, but over the
government response to flooding, not rising costs and unemployment. There
are concerns on the streets that the country doesn’t have proper
infrastructure and is recklessly spending its oil riches. The repressive
regime is unlikely to fall under these smaller concerns, but its youth
unemployment problem (42%) and religious minority (Shia) could eventually
exert real pressure.
Iran: Could things kick off again in Tehran?
Image: flickr
Investments to watch: NoneStyle of government: Islamic Republic, with
democratically elected representatives. Less than certain how “democratic”
elections truly are. Ruled by Supreme Leader, who is a both religious and
political leader.
Inflation: Inflation at 13.5% in early 2010, may be more than double that
level
Unemployment: 14.6% as of August
Social media: Significant penetration of both Twitter and Facebook.
Government showed willingness to crackdown on use during previous protest
movement.
Conclusion: Iran crushed its most recent protest movement. If inflation
continues to rise, the sentiment may become more popular, and Egypt’s
revolution could inspire Iranians back to the streets.
Libya: Time may be runnning out for Gaddafi
Investments to watch: NoneStyle of government: Authoritarian, led by Muammar
al-Gaddafi
Inflation: CPI up 2.654% in 2009
Unemployment: Highest unemployment rate in North Africa
Social media: The Muslim Brotherhood has a Facebook page. Unknown levels of
internet penetration.
Conclusion: Libya would seem a good bet. It’s stuck between revolutionary
Tunisia and Egypt. Its leader is regarded as an international eccentric. He
wants his son to take over, and the public’s not pleased. Financial squalor
is probably worse than estimated. Whether or not social media could assist
is unknown, but Libya is a likely future front in the spillover.
Yemen: Serious unemployment problem and an Al Qaeda threat
Investments to watch: NoneStyle of government: Presidential democracy,
elections not entirely free
Inflation: No data of note, though likely higher that the 5.4% projection
Unemployment: 40%
Social media: 2.2 million internet users, population 23.4 million
Conclusion: Yemen has the deepest unemployment problem in the region, and
likely a serious inflation problem too. There’s a large terrorist group in
the country, as it is a headquarters for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Protests are already significant. There is a sincere liklihood of change
here, or, and this might be worse, further radicalisation of the population.
Pakistan: Democracy under threat as state remains unstable
Investments to watch: Claymore’s BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (FRN)Style
of government: Democratic republic
Inflation: Over 15%
Unemployment: 14% in 2010 (estimate)
Social media: Heavy use, government has banned use over the depiction of
Mohamed before.
Conclusion: Pakistan has a serious economic crisis, a weakness of state
shown in recent flooding, confused positions over the U.S. and Taliban, as
well as large anti-government, pro-Muslim fundamentalist forces.
The potential for change is there. The biggest power source remains the
military, however, and another coup, similar to the one that brought
Musharaf to power, could occur.
Vietnam: A sharp recession could lead to opposition against Communist rule
Investments to watch: Market Vectors Vietnam (VNM)Style of government:
Authoritarian capitalism
Inflation: High inflation, including rising food costs
Unemployment: 6.5%
Social media: Blogs, Facebook, and other social media venues are prevalent
Conclusion: In Asia, Vietnam looks a likely candidate for protests,
particularly if the economy slows down and unemployment increases. The
economic trigger for a downturn would need to be pulled, however, before any
change would take place.
Venezuela: Has Hugo Chavez outstayed his welcome?
Investments to watch: NoneStyle of government: Authoritarian republic
Inflation: 27.2% in 2010
Unemployment: 8.1% in the first 10 months of 2010
Social media: It exists, and Chavez has a Twitter account.
Conclusion: The economic numbers scream change, but there’s no way to know
whether or not Chavez has outstayed his welcome. The country hasn’t had the
same, long-term oppressive experience as a country like Egypt. And its
leadership still appeals to the anti-American sentiment held by the populace.
China: Could a severe economic downturn derail the Chinese regime?
Image: www.flickr.com
Investments to watch: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI), iShares
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH)Style of government: Authoritarian
Inflation: China has a serious inflation problem, with food prices at the
forefront.
Unemployment: 4.2%
Social media: Significant penetration, but government aggressively censors
Conclusion: China has all the ingredients except the big one: unemployment.
Now, there’s no guarantee rural China won’t see an uprising related to
soaring prices and high unemployment there, but it’s unlikely to be passed
on to the country’s cities. It would take a massive economic downturn, like
one created by a liquidity crisis leading to a banking crisis leading to a
recession, to trigger an unemployment surge that would threaten the regime. |
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