w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 1 The Day The Yen Carry Trade Died
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2011 17:59 -0400
While everyone is staring in disbelief at the USDJPY, the real carry action
is in the high yielding-YEN pairs, i.e., the development, high growing
countries. And it's a massacre: ZARJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY - all are plunging
far more than the USD. This is nothing short of a complete carry trade
unwind. The implications: the cheapest recurring source of funding for risk
assets - the Yen carry trade, is over. Those who managed to sell early on
are lucky.
The rest will get such an onslaught of margin calls tomorrow they may need
to access the discount window (if Primary Dealers and the luckier banks).
Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements as
ongoing sales of carry pairs push the Yen ever higher, and force ever more
liquidity out of the market. And if the Yen carry trade is done, the
question is when will the USD, which has also been a carry currency for some
time, follow suit. And, once again, the most troubling observation is that
the BOJ has not intervened. Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50
trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low. In
any case, ES opens in 2 minutes. Grab the popcorn now. | w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | | w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 3 To summarize, as my view remains the same:
Money, is the only thing that drives the market. | j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 4 US Treasury yields begin to climb ??
大牛讲讲， 为啥啊？ 都forced dumping US bond, 没有接盘，那yield 怎么climb?
US bond要找到其他买家，只有发行新的，增加yield 来吸引？
Stage 3: In order to fund the rebuilding effort, Japan has to buy a lot of
items from foreign suppliers at the same time that its exports plunge
precipitously. At first Japan simply does not participate in US Treasury
auctions, leading to a shortage of buyers. But eventually Japan has to sell
some of its vast hoard of US bonds in order to pay for external items needed
for its reconstruction. Further, insurance companies, huge holders of US
bonds, face stiff liability claims in the wake of the worst natural disaster
to hit a heavily industrialized center and are forced to redeem enormous
amounts of Treasury paper. US Treasury yields begin to climb.
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: 最严重的后果(当然，可能性不大)
| c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 5 你这问的真奇怪！
你dump bond， yield就涨，太自然不过了
lot of
Treasury
sell
needed
US
disaster
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】
: US Treasury yields begin to climb ??
: 大牛讲讲， 为啥啊？ 都forced dumping US bond, 没有接盘，那yield 怎么climb?
: US bond要找到其他买家，只有发行新的，增加yield 来吸引？
:
: Stage 3: In order to fund the rebuilding effort, Japan has to buy a lot of
: items from foreign suppliers at the same time that its exports plunge
: precipitously. At first Japan simply does not participate in US Treasury
: auctions, leading to a shortage of buyers. But eventually Japan has to sell
: some of its vast hoard of US bonds in order to pay for external items needed
: for its reconstruction. Further, insurance companies, huge holders of US
| j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 6 对对对， 我猪
价格底了，yield 就高了
【在 c******n 的大作中提到】
: 你这问的真奇怪！
: 你dump bond， yield就涨，太自然不过了
:
: lot of
: Treasury
: sell
: needed
: US
: disaster
|
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