w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 1 Piper Jaffray: Worth It to Own Apple With iPad Wildcard
By Miriam Gottfried
It’s worth it to own Apple (AAPL) shares, despite the fact that sales
numbers for the iPhone, Mac and iPod will likely be in line with consensus,
because numbers for the iPad are a wildcard, according to analysts at Piper
Jaffray.
There is unusually high visibility into numbers for most Apple devices, the
firm argues, but for the iPad 2, the persistence of a dramatic supply
constraint means the demand for the device far exceeds the supply, making
reported numbers irrelevant.
“The takeaway likely will be that iPad was supply-constrained and has an
open growth opportunity in calendar 2011 and calendar 2012,” wrote analyst
Gene Munster in a research note.
Assuming Apple’s guidance for June is consistent with past guidance,
implies revenue of $23.39 billion and EPS of $4.73 (compared to consensus
figures of $23.85 billion and $5.27), Munster wrote. But Apple may guide
gross margin and EPS even more conservatively than usual, depending on
constraints in Japanese component supply.
“These supply constraints may have forced Apple to push the launch of the
iPhone 5 later in the September quarter,” he wrote. “We note, however,
that the impact of iPhone launches has typically hit in the September
quarter anyway following late June quarter launches.”
Still, sales last quarter in Japan contributed 5% to Apple’s revenue,
Munster notes. The quake, tsunami and nuclear crisis affected the March
quarter demand, and will likely be a headwind for part of the June quarter.
Munster rates Apple at Overweight with a $483 price target.
Apple shares are down 0.3% at $336.13 in premarket trading.
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Apple: Don’t Sweat Large Numbers, Says JPMorgan
By Tiernan Ray
JP Morgan’s Mark Moskowitz lifted his estimates for Apple‘s (AAPL) sales
of the iPhone and Macs in Apple’s fiscal Q2 that ended last month, though
it didn’t help the shares much: Apple stock is currently down $4.42, or 1%,
at $328.
Or perhaps it was Moskowitz himself who unsettled the shares: he cut his
iPad estimate for the quarter ended last month to 5.4 million from 6.6
million previously, as he thinks the persistent stock-outs of the iPad 2
reduced sales in the quarter.
That said, Moskowitz actually raised his full-year iPad estimate to 31.3
million units from a prior 29.1 million.
Moskowitz raised his iPhone unit estimate to 18.4 million from 16.6 million,
based on research suggesting the GSM version of the phone saw more
extensive “channel fill” than previously thought, and based on what he
thinks may be a run-rate of 2 million or more units per quarter at Verizon
Communications (VZ).
Moskowitz raised his Mac unit estimate to 3.89 million units for the March
quarter from a prior 3.85 million units, given that industry checks suggest
“the MacBook Air momentum has continued after the break-out performance of
the December quarter.”
Overall, Moskowitz urges investors not to fret so much the “law of large
numbers,” nor Apple’s lower gross profit margin. Moskowitz expects gross
profit margin of 38.1% this year, down from a prior estimate of 38.6%.
Nevertheless, this is to be expected, he suggests, given turmoil in Japan,
Apple’s practice of sole-sourcing some materials, and given the rapid
growth of the iPad that Apple has to fund.
While the law of large numbers stands to diminish the relative magnitude of
earnings beats exhibited in years past, we think that the overall growth
trends at Apple will be too big to ignore. The relative delta tothe peers’
revenue growth prospects should require a positive valuation rerating, in
our view.
Apple’s P/E ratio used to be half as much again as stocks of peers, but now
it’s merely in line with them, observes Moskowitz. “We do not think this
[valuation multiple] compression makes sense given the substantial expansion
in earnings power at Apple.”
Moskowitz reiterated a price target of $450. | B****t
发帖数: 3129 | | w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 3 奇怪的是为啥这么多升级还狂降。
不过今天OE。可以理解。
【在 B****t 的大作中提到】
: 必需的
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