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发帖数: 901 | 1 China's boom since 2009 was fueled by massive domestic debt issuance, which
was unsustainable and is reversing. In addition, one Chinese company after
another is being revealed as a fraud – and then crashing. These are not
isolated events. I have studied Chinese companies for more than a decade.
Out of all the stocks I've analyzed closely, I've only seen a handful I didn
't believe were fraudulent.
So far, none of the major Chinese banks have come under serious scrutiny.
But I believe they will… and I believe major fraud will be discovered. Take
the recent weakness in the shares of China Life Insurance (LFC), for
example. This isn't a minor company. It's a $90 billion life insurance
company. As fraud allegations spread into major Chinese financials, the
entire underpinning of the Chinese boom will fall apart. It has all been
fueled by debt and fixed-asset investments (land, buildings, equipment, and
machinery). Consider just a few of these facts…
Fixed-asset investment remains greater than 50% of GDP in China, for the
12th year in a row. No other country has ever had more than nine years of
this kind of sustained fixed-asset investment.
In the first five months of 2011, fixed-asset investment grew by 25.8%
according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. That's $1.39 trillion
worth of investment.
Jim Chanos, the famed short seller, says China is currently building 30
billion square feet of commercial real estate. That is enough to provide
every person in China with a five-square-foot cubicle.
Jeremy Grantham, one of the world's most astute investors, points out that
China has been purchasing gigantic quantities of raw materials. The scale of
these purchases makes them impossible to sustain. China makes up 9.4% of
the world's economy, but it is currently consuming 53% of the world's cement
, 47% of the world's iron ore, and 46.9% of its coal.
A massive increase in China's domestic debt fueled this investment. In 2010,
for example, Chinese banks extended $55 billion in loans – up 95% from the
year before. Now, banking regulators are increasing reserve requirements,
greatly reducing the amount of available credit. In May, lending was down 25
% versus last year. | l******c
发帖数: 2555 | 2 china's stock market has serious problem because Chinese company does not
have any credit.
But china's economy is in the best shape in this world.
Only china has 10% increase in revenue every year.
If this is reflected in the stock market, Shanghai index should be above 10,000 | b******e
发帖数: 471 | | j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 4 原创？ 赞一下
非原创的话，写得太差了
都是大家都知的结果，timing is everything
写手真能把LFC 搞翻, 就太牛B了 |
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