A********d
发帖数: 52 | 1 http://thewallstreetoperator.blogspot.com/2011/08/case-of-bear-
The Case of a Bear Market ...
For all the hoopla in the stock market, 2011 has been an extremely choppy
market. At this writing, S&P 500 has gone no where since the start of the
year. However the time is finally ripe for a bear break ...
In my last market missive, I talked about some dangerous signs pointing to
market internal deterioration, let's review what has happened since May 15,
2011.
Nasdaq made a nominal high of 2887.75 on May 2nd after the relief rally from
the Japanese earthquake and tsunami disaster. The high surpassed the 2007
Oct high of 2861.51 (It is simply eye popping to watch how powerful Fed
could lift all asset classes by its massive influx of cheap money to the
market). From early May to the middle of June, the Nasdaq dived 10% due to
the European mess on bailing out troubled Greece. At the middle of June, the
Greece problem was put aside and the anticipation of good corporate 2rd
quarter earnings started the summer rally in earnest, with some big multi-
national US corporations reported solid numbers, including IBM, GOOG, AAPL,
BIDU etc. Here comes today, as the debt ceiling debate is over, this market
is yet again in a critical juncture, where is it heading? The indices don't
tell a full picture.
One striking fact about the last 5 months' market activity, shown in the
above Nasdaq picture, clearly demonstrate repeated heavy selling from the
institutions. Heavy volume sell off from the top (early march), followed by
low volume rally to new highs (Mid March to end of April), followed by
another boat of concentrated high volume liquidation (May to Mid June),
followed by low volume summer rally. This pattern can be seen in many stocks
and sector ETFs, e.g. oil ETFs, XOP, XLE, OIH; metals and ming ETF XME;
industrials ETF xli etc. Repeated high vol sell off followed by low vol
rally points to market topping process. Smart $$$ is leaving the market.
The internals of the market is rapidly deteriorating. The above picture
shows the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above 200MA for the last 3 years. It
is clear that the number of stocks participating the market rally since
March 2011 shows strong negative divergence. With more and more stocks
breaking below 200MA, the indices are only a few percent below their all
time highs. What is holding up the market? One pillar (or the single
remaining one should I say?) of the strength comes from some big cap tech
stocks, AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, IBM, AMZN. When they finally start to top (they
have yet to show signs of topping), the flood gate will open.
Looking at the market sectors, financials (XLF) and Semi conductors (SOX)
are mired in their bear land; Industrials (XLI) finally breaks down last
week. As the pillars of any bull market, these three areas are pointing
further market weakness to come.
On the growth stock land, the whole cloud computing stocks are gone (look at
RVBD, ARUN, APKT, FFIV, VMW, CRM etc); Some small innovative or niche
market growth stocks from the March 2009 bull market are taken to the
woodshed (e.g. OPEN, ACOM, PAY, etc). There are some selected retail stocks
targeting the American affluents (and a few medical stocks) are still
holding up (e.g. LULU, CMG, GMCR, FOSL, TIF, TPX, HLF, ULTA etc), however
the names are getting thinner and thinner. (These stocks are yet another
fact to know that those rich are less affected by this rapidly polarizing
society where poor becomes poorer and rich becomes even richer ... how to
protect your family and kids from this wealth zero sum game? learn to invest
properly is certainly one way !!!)
How is the market sentiment now? No bears, the latest Market sentiment
survey continues to show more bulls than bears, bulls 50%, bears 21% which
is a remarkable contrast to Sept 2010, where bull/bear ratio is 40% bears to
30% bull.
As I went to an IBD meetup here in the bay area on late July, 2011, more
than 60% of participants are bulls and one bullish argument they constantly
cite is the fact that the average bull market length is 3.8 years and this
bull market is only 2.3 years old and also the fact that we are in the 3rd
year of presidential election which is usually bullish.
Let's look deeper into the length of the bull market. This article was
written in Jan 2011, so the current bull market length was shown to be 1.8
years.
Here are some important fact to know, as of the last bull market of 2002-
2007, among the 15 market cycles from 1930
The average duration of bull markets since 1932 is 3.8 yrs (median of 3.6
yrs)
80% of bulls lived past their 2nd birthday.
Barely half saw their 3rd birthday.
The average gain of these past 15 bull markets is 136.4%; The median gain is
101.5%.
The last bull market lived less than 3 years is 1987 bull market which
lasted 2 years 7 month.
We are now 2 year 4+ month into the bull market. Because the average bull
market is 3.8 years long such that we don't have a case for bear market? NO,
your conclusion is flawed, the distribution does not suggest you have a
strong case.
As I am sitting here in caesars palace in Vegas attending the annual
Blackhat hacker conference, I see some hackers constantly refreshing their
browsers to read the debt ceiling news on Bloomberg as if the market's
softness is purely due to the debt ceiling uncertainties. The fact is the
market will go where it wants to go regardless what the solution of the debt
ceiling is.
I don't know what will happen tomorrow or a month later. I careless about
the news. The price, volume action at hand as of this writing on the indices
, sectors, and stocks, however, point to an upcoming bear market. | b******o
发帖数: 545 | 2 熊市定义是什么？ correction定义是什么？ 理论上现在连correction还不到.大波还
是喜欢瞎鸡巴乱嚷 | A********d
发帖数: 52 | 3
When I say a bear market, it means 20%+ correction on SP 500
【在 b******o 的大作中提到】
: 熊市定义是什么？ correction定义是什么？ 理论上现在连correction还不到.大波还
: 是喜欢瞎鸡巴乱嚷
| b******o
发帖数: 545 | 4 也就是说从高位１３７０要跌到１０９６，算宽点给多你１１００
【在 A********d 的大作中提到】
:
: When I say a bear market, it means 20%+ correction on SP 500
| r****e
发帖数: 867 | 5 文章写得不错, 覆盖面很广.
就是最前面那个TA分析太土了, 我怎么没看出来"smart money leaving the market"?
而且是从三月就开始了. 这读图能力也太强了 | b******o
发帖数: 545 | 6 大波才鸡指了１１００，今天连１２５０都下不去 :))
【在 b******o 的大作中提到】
: 也就是说从高位１３７０要跌到１０９６，算宽点给多你１１００
| v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 7 其实有一定道理。health care差不多就是那个时候开涨的
?
【在 r****e 的大作中提到】
: 文章写得不错, 覆盖面很广.
: 就是最前面那个TA分析太土了, 我怎么没看出来"smart money leaving the market"?
: 而且是从三月就开始了. 这读图能力也太强了
| w***n
发帖数: 1519 | | c**2
发帖数: 73 | 9 我擦，一贴看到俩股东大牛，留个爪印先。
,
from
【在 A********d 的大作中提到】
: http://thewallstreetoperator.blogspot.com/2011/08/case-of-bear-
: The Case of a Bear Market ...
: For all the hoopla in the stock market, 2011 has been an extremely choppy
: market. At this writing, S&P 500 has gone no where since the start of the
: year. However the time is finally ripe for a bear break ...
: In my last market missive, I talked about some dangerous signs pointing to
: market internal deterioration, let's review what has happened since May 15,
: 2011.
: Nasdaq made a nominal high of 2887.75 on May 2nd after the relief rally from
: the Japanese earthquake and tsunami disaster. The high surpassed the 2007
| b******o
发帖数: 545 | 10 大波，你鸭今天千万忍住别出来乱嚷,想想离１１００还有１３０点呢。否则下周就得
屁股遭殃
【在 b******o 的大作中提到】
: 大波才鸡指了１１００，今天连１２５０都下不去 :))
| | | b******o
发帖数: 545 | 11 还有你一贯把简单东西复杂化，一句话能说明白非要浪费几大段甚至一整篇的风格很不
环保.
【在 b******o 的大作中提到】
: 大波，你鸭今天千万忍住别出来乱嚷,想想离１１００还有１３０点呢。否则下周就得
: 屁股遭殃
| l**********c
发帖数: 434 | | q**x
发帖数: 1636 | | A********d
发帖数: 52 | 14 我靠, imploded ... i am not surprised LOL | b******o
发帖数: 545 | 15 你个衰人，就知道会忍不住要出来。坏风水
就不兴憋多１００点先
【在 A********d 的大作中提到】
: 我靠, imploded ... i am not surprised LOL
| c*****k
发帖数: 2080 | 16 大波和四波都很威武。
【在 A********d 的大作中提到】
: 我靠, imploded ... i am not surprised LOL
| g*********o
发帖数: 4653 | 17 ３.６年？１.８年？
为什么重复其中一种模式而不重复另一种？
历史可能会重复，但是，即使重复，
也不是简单的重复，尤其在目前比较复杂的形势下，
参与的搏弈方多了，就更难预测了 | U*****e
发帖数: 2882 | 18 An insightful article.
,
from
【在 A********d 的大作中提到】
: http://thewallstreetoperator.blogspot.com/2011/08/case-of-bear-
: The Case of a Bear Market ...
: For all the hoopla in the stock market, 2011 has been an extremely choppy
: market. At this writing, S&P 500 has gone no where since the start of the
: year. However the time is finally ripe for a bear break ...
: In my last market missive, I talked about some dangerous signs pointing to
: market internal deterioration, let's review what has happened since May 15,
: 2011.
: Nasdaq made a nominal high of 2887.75 on May 2nd after the relief rally from
: the Japanese earthquake and tsunami disaster. The high surpassed the 2007
| A********d
发帖数: 52 | 19
no market will be exactly same ... but many topping processes show similar
characteristics ...
my point to make is that the average year of 3.8 of bull market should not
be used as an excuse for the current bull market to last
【在 g*********o 的大作中提到】
: ３.６年？１.８年？
: 为什么重复其中一种模式而不重复另一种？
: 历史可能会重复，但是，即使重复，
: 也不是简单的重复，尤其在目前比较复杂的形势下，
: 参与的搏弈方多了，就更难预测了
| A********d
发帖数: 52 | 20 gold should be accumulated on any pull back ...
my buy on gld/dgp on July 12 and 13 looks awesome ... will add more when
time is right ... | | | A********d
发帖数: 52 | 21
四波, 看傻了吧?
【在 b******o 的大作中提到】
: 熊市定义是什么？ correction定义是什么？ 理论上现在连correction还不到.大波还
: 是喜欢瞎鸡巴乱嚷
| b******o
发帖数: 545 | | b******o
发帖数: 545 | |
|
