l******f
发帖数: 42 | 1 Here are some possible effects – in no particular order except for #10 -
if US debt gets downgraded due to political failure to raise (or preferably
eliminate) the debt ceiling and get some meaningful spending cuts:
1) Money market funds may again break down below par ($1) because according
to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rule as of January 2010 money
funds are required to hold at least 30% of their assets in Treasuries.
Money market funds hold $1.3 trillion in Treasuries so if Treasuries fall (
yield rises due to the downgrade) these funds could again break the buck
possibly triggering a run.
2) Institutions and pension funds with strict investment guidelines or
guidelines that stipulate a certain percent to be held in AAA rated paper
may have to dump Treasuries.
3) Stocks could tank because primary dealers use Treasuries for collateral
loans so a downgrade could initiate margin calls causing scramble for cash,
meaning massive selling of securities.
4) Countries who use Treasuries as collateral for their debt, particularly
short-term, may find themselves unable to roll it over causing a wave of
sovereign debt defaults. Others may have their debt repriced causing severe
budget problems and possible economic contractions.
5) US states may get their own debt downgraded straining their budget
problems even more. Already, Moody’s has 15 AAA-rated states placed on
review.
6) Cities and their school districts could go bankrupt because many have
used the AAA Treasuries as collateral for their debt.
7) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which hold Treasuries against mortgages, may
go bankrupt strangling whatever is left of the housing market.
8) Certain corporate debt could be particularly hard hit, like hospital debt
that depends of federal Medicaid payments.
9) For profit (and non-profit) schools that depend on federal student loans
could collapse.
10) Foreign governments may stop buying US paper causing massive collapse in
demand for the dollar causing certain commodities like gold or oil to
skyrocket while fueling this entire cycle all over again. | U********f
发帖数: 2482 | 2 最后一条说的是长期变动，短期内一切东西都要倒过来。
preferably
according
money
【在 l******f 的大作中提到】
: Here are some possible effects – in no particular order except for #10 -
: if US debt gets downgraded due to political failure to raise (or preferably
: eliminate) the debt ceiling and get some meaningful spending cuts:
: 1) Money market funds may again break down below par ($1) because according
: to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rule as of January 2010 money
: funds are required to hold at least 30% of their assets in Treasuries.
: Money market funds hold $1.3 trillion in Treasuries so if Treasuries fall (
: yield rises due to the downgrade) these funds could again break the buck
: possibly triggering a run.
: 2) Institutions and pension funds with strict investment guidelines or
|
|
