s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 1 The market has crashed. No one knows for sure where the bottom will be or
when stocks will finally bounce. From a sentiment standpoint, we ought to be
close.
Given the current extreme oversold conditions, a bounce higher could be huge
. The S&P 500 could run all the way back up to 1,250 or so (the former
support level on the chart) before running into resistance. That's a gain of
about 12% from yesterday's closing price.
We could try to trade a bounce here. But call options are just too expensive
. Option premiums are already factoring in a big move. Even if we nail the
exact bottom of the market, stocks probably won't bounce enough to overcome
the cost of the options.
Selling put options is a viable strategy. After all, if option premiums are
too expensive to buy, selling them is usually a good idea. But remember…
the market probably hasn't bottomed yet. If we go by previous "crash"
episodes, any bounce will be short-lived. Stocks will drift back down and
make a slightly lower low before establishing a final bottom. That will be
the ideal time to sell put options.
So what should we do now?
Nothing.
There's no need to rush in and try to catch the bottom. The odds of doing
that successfully are slim, and the prices you'd have to pay for the options
are too expensive to create a good risk/reward setup…
As I said earlier, I think 1,250 is a reasonable target for any bounce in
the S&P 500. That's enough of a move to crush anyone who held on to short
trades too long and to get investors all excited about a year-end rally. We'
ll use that enthusiasm to establish a put option trade or two in
anticipation of a decline back down to retest the lows of the current crash
conditions.
It is during that retest that we'll have a chance to "catch the bottom" and
load up on positions for a year-end rally.
But today, there is nothing for us to do. | e*******e
发帖数: 1357 | | w*********7
发帖数: 2883 | 3 The market has crashed....OMG
最好是原创吧， 不要是哪里的新闻， 那明天又要血洗了 | z****e
发帖数: 1384 | 4 天天血洗
血真多啊
【在 w*********7 的大作中提到】
: The market has crashed....OMG
: 最好是原创吧， 不要是哪里的新闻， 那明天又要血洗了
| g***l
发帖数: 18555 | 5 血当然多了，从6000-10800，血还多的是呢。 |
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