c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 1 1）CME hikes gold margin requirement
2) Swiss Franc to temporarily peg to the Euro
3) Belgium, France, Italy, Spain to impose short-selling bans
4) Fed temporarily stopped buying US treasury
5) BLS cooked the jobless claims data | c********r
发帖数: 520 | | l**********o
发帖数: 9952 | 3 4) Fed temporarily stopped buying US treasury
这个为什么利好股市？ | l**********o
发帖数: 9952 | 4 明天有虾米数据出来？
【在 c********r 的大作中提到】
: 明天接着cook数据
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 5 推高国债收益率（压低国债价格），逼出前几天进债市避险的资金。
【在 l**********o 的大作中提到】
: 4) Fed temporarily stopped buying US treasury
: 这个为什么利好股市？
| v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 7 Yes!
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 不要跟政府斗。熊们需要暂时躲躲
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 8 牛牛们注意了：这只是一个反弹！最后的胜利，是属于熊的！
原因，如下：
The risk of a double dip recession has climbed sharply as the economy
endures the double whammy of slowing growth and wild swings in global
markets, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal over
the past week.
The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put
the odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they
peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%—up from 17% only
a month ago.
Another recession isn't a certainty. The stock market rallied on Thursday,
in part because of a reassuring signal that the wheels haven't yet come off
the U.S. job market. Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down
last week to 395,000, pulling the total below the 400,000 threshold at which
the economy is usually assumed to be adding more jobs than it is shedding.
Fears of a European debt crisis also eased slightly.
But the bigger picture is of an economy where growth has slowed so markedly
that it wouldn't take much to push it into an outright contraction. A
recession—according to the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business
Cycle Dating Committee, the nonprofit group considered the official arbiter
of recessions—is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across
the economy, lasting more than a few months." They study gross domestic
product, employment and incomes to pinpoint when recessions start and end.
The problem is that the committee doesn't usually declare a downturn until
well after it is under way. The official 2007 start date of the most recent
recession, for instance, wasn't announced until December 2008.
Some economists say the distinction between a recession and the extremely
slow growth recorded so far this year is nearly meaningless. "We are
probably debating words at this point; a secondary dip is playing out," said
Paul Ballew, chief economist at Nationwide.
Revisions to GDP released late last month show that the recovery has been
slow, with growth in the first half of this year below 1% at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate. The second quarter came in at just 1.3% growth, and
following the release Thursday of a wider trade deficit for June, economists
at Goldman Sachs suggested that could be revised even lower to around 0.9%.
Slower growth in the first half has led economists in the survey to slash
their forecasts for the rest of this year and into next as well. They now
estimate growth for full-year 2011 to be just 1.6% and 2012 is expected to
be a mere 2.5%.
"The economy has already been hit by a series of shocks earlier this year,
so I think we need just one more modest shock to tip the economy back into
recession," said Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer.
The most likely such shock she cited: Turmoil in Europe, which could spill
over into the U.S. Another possibility: Recent volatility on Wall Street,
which has wiped out some $328 billion in wealth in the past week.
"It absolutely ups the risk of a double dip," said Steve Blitz, a senior
economist at ITG Investment Research in New York. "It's hard for it not to."
Big drops in the stock market, Mr. Blitz said, could cause consumers to
pull back on spending, which could further hurt an already-weak economy. The
effect could be especially pronounced among wealthier Americans, who have
more of their money in the stock market—and whose spending has until now
been a relative bright spot.
In an interview Thursday, economist Nouriel Roubini—who doesn't participate
in the Journal's survey—said the world had more than a 50% chance of
falling into recession, and that the next two to three months would reveal
which way the global economy will head. "We are at stall speed right now,
and we do not know if we are going to go up, or down," Mr. Roubini said. The
world is operating "in the fog of uncertainty," he added.
Some economists responding to the Journal survey are more optimistic. Maury
Harris, chief U.S. economist for UBS, said he sees relatively little risk of
a renewed recession. Many economists, he said, are too focused on the
government's limited options, while ignoring signs that the economy is
already improving on its own. Oil prices are falling, which should allow
consumers to spend less at the pump and more on other things. Banks,
meanwhile, are stepping up lending to both individuals and businesses.
The survey, however, shows a key element of the economy—the job market—
remains under heavy stress. The economists expect the unemployment rate to
still be at 9% at the end of this year, down just slightly from July's 9.1%.
They estimate that the economy will add an average of just 145,000 jobs a
month over the next year, barely enough to make up for population growth and
doing little for the 13.9 million people who are currently seeking
employment.
Other factors are weighing on the U.S. economy, as the Federal Reserve noted
in a gloomy outlook issued in its policy statement earlier this week. The
central bank pointed to weakness in household spending, deterioration in the
jobs market and a depressed housing sector. Indeed, economists still expect
construction to remain at moribund levels into 2012. They see home prices
falling 3% this year and increasing a mere 1.5% next year. The Fed also
expressed concerns that transitory factors such as a spike in energy prices
earlier this year and supply-chain disruptions from the Japanese earthquake
account for just part of the recent economic weakness. | v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 9 给你来个大道至简：因为中国猪肉30块一斤了。
put
only
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 牛牛们注意了：这只是一个反弹！最后的胜利，是属于熊的！
: 原因，如下：
: The risk of a double dip recession has climbed sharply as the economy
: endures the double whammy of slowing growth and wild swings in global
: markets, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal over
: the past week.
: The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put
: the odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they
: peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%—up from 17% only
: a month ago.
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 10 哈哈，美国的问题刚好相反，通缩预期。。。
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 给你来个大道至简：因为中国猪肉30块一斤了。
:
: put
: only
| v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 11 木有中国这个基建火车头拉动，美国经济好不起来的。中国现在已经近乎不惜一切控制
通胀了。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈，美国的问题刚好相反，通缩预期。。。
| a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 12 所以高盛今天涨了7%，因为它的猪养肥了正要出笼赚大钱。
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 给你来个大道至简：因为中国猪肉30块一斤了。
:
: put
: only
| e**s
发帖数: 4638 | | s****a
发帖数: 528 | 14 靠，这个和08年有的一拼啊，大家乘着政策市逃吧，10000点下面再来 |
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