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发帖数: 8441 | 1 Sharp fall in German economic growth
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
German economic growth slowed to a near standstill in the second quarter of
this year, dealing a further, unexpected blow to eurozone prospects.
The surprise deceleration in activity in Europe’s largest economy will add
to fears of a global slowdown and possible double-dip recession in some
countries – and will complicate the challenge facing eurozone policymakers
as they seek to combat the region’s escalating debt crisis.
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Germany had been a star performer among western industrialised economies in
the first quarter of this year. But the country’s federal statistics office
reported on Tuesday that German gross domestic product increased by only 0.
1 per cent in the three months to June compared with the previous quarter.
Data for the first quarter were also revised down to show a rise of 1.3 per
cent compared with the 1.5 per cent originally reported.
Germany’s disappointing data followed unexpectedly weak French GDP figures
on Friday, showing growth in the eurozone’s second largest country was flat
in the second quarter, and weakened stock markets across Europe. The euro
slid from three-week highs against the dollar.
Eurozone GDP figures are released later on Tuesday.
Economists had expected Germany’s economy to slow in the second quarter
after an exceptionally strong start to the year – but had still forecast
GDP would rise by about 0.5 per cent. Few details were given but the
statistics office said exports and investment had provided “positive
contributions”. However consumer spending and the construction sector had
acted as brakes on growth.
Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING in Brussels, said the latest data still
marked a “return to normality” rather than disaster.
The “million dollar question” was whether the second quarter marked the “
beginning of the end” of Germany’s economic miracle “and whether recent
market turmoil could push the economy back into recession”. But he
concluded: “Strong economic fundamentals still seem to outweigh fading
sentiment driven by market developments.”
Nevertheless, Christian Schulz, economist at Berenberg Bank, warned that
significant risks could “stem from a loss of confidence due to the European
debt crisis and its percieved cost to the German tax payer”.
Nicholas Sarkozy, French president, and Angela Merkel, German premiere, are
due to meet later on Tuesday to discuss the latest developments in the
European sovereign debt crisis. The two countries has ruled out the issuing
eurozone bonds to solve the crisis.
On Monday it was revealed that the ECB purchased €22bn of eurozone
government debt as it sought to calm markets.
Germany’s economy contracted sharply after the collapse of Lehman Brothers
in late 2008 but staged a more rapid recovery than other countries, boosted
by its engineering exports to fast growing countries such as China.
In sharp contrast to the US and UK, Germany has also seen unemployment
falling steadily for the past two years – to the lowest level for two
decades. That boosted hopes that a pick up in domestic demand would reduce
the country’s reliance on exports to power growth. But the latest data
suggest that “re-balancing” of the German economy has still to feed
through into the growth data. |
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