B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 1 We may not have QE3. The OT will push up $ and hit commodities. Thus who
hold paper $ will immediately get much better valuation, especially banks
who hold most of the paper $ and large corp. with piles of cash after QE1,2.
The expectation on QE3 will push those $ holders to buy, to lend, and to
hire. Thus the credit market will ease for small business. We may see much
better consumption
and improved hiring in Q4. It may turn out QE3 is no longer necessary in the end.
It is possible the economy does not improve by Spring, and QE3 is still
necessary. After that, Bernake may have to use another round of OT to
stablize $. The problem is eventually solvable given the fundamentals of US
economy. | l********g
发帖数: 5070 | 2 OT对美股是利好还是利空？看了半天没看明白，OT=》美元升=》商品跌，然后对股市呢
...？ | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 3 Good for those who hold paper $ at this moment.
Banks and large corporations. When they start to lend, to buy, and to hire,
and credit market will flow, benefiting small-business.
【在 l********g 的大作中提到】
: OT对美股是利好还是利空？看了半天没看明白，OT=》美元升=》商品跌，然后对股市呢
: ...？
| B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 4 OT is very effective. I see a bright future for financials, consumers. The
market will be very healthy and rational after this gold/silver crashing.
Be a confident value investor!
2.
the end.
US
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: We may not have QE3. The OT will push up $ and hit commodities. Thus who
: hold paper $ will immediately get much better valuation, especially banks
: who hold most of the paper $ and large corp. with piles of cash after QE1,2.
: The expectation on QE3 will push those $ holders to buy, to lend, and to
: hire. Thus the credit market will ease for small business. We may see much
: better consumption
: and improved hiring in Q4. It may turn out QE3 is no longer necessary in the end.
: It is possible the economy does not improve by Spring, and QE3 is still
: necessary. After that, Bernake may have to use another round of OT to
: stablize $. The problem is eventually solvable given the fundamentals of US
| p********o
发帖数: 8012 | 5 才两天就有效了？那为何之前不用？呵呵
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: OT is very effective. I see a bright future for financials, consumers. The
: market will be very healthy and rational after this gold/silver crashing.
: Be a confident value investor!
:
: 2.
: the end.
: US
| p********y
发帖数: 5044 | | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 7 Isn't it very effective in hitting gold/silver and commodities? I expect it
helps financials and consumers, good for economy.
The previou 2 years of commodities bull market is not healthy as the result
of QE1&2. OT is correcting it somehow.
【在 p********o 的大作中提到】
: 才两天就有效了？那为何之前不用？呵呵
| B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 8 We may not have QE3. The OT will push up $ and hit commodities. Thus who
hold paper $ will immediately get much better valuation, especially banks
who hold most of the paper $ and large corp. with piles of cash after QE1,2.
The expectation on QE3 will push those $ holders to buy, to lend, and to
hire. Thus the credit market will ease for small business. We may see much
better consumption
and improved hiring in Q4. It may turn out QE3 is no longer necessary in the end.
It is possible the economy does not improve by Spring, and QE3 is still
necessary. After that, Bernake may have to use another round of OT to
stablize $. The problem is eventually solvable given the fundamentals of US
economy. | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 9 当时的看法大多被证实了。
2.
the end.
US
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: We may not have QE3. The OT will push up $ and hit commodities. Thus who
: hold paper $ will immediately get much better valuation, especially banks
: who hold most of the paper $ and large corp. with piles of cash after QE1,2.
: The expectation on QE3 will push those $ holders to buy, to lend, and to
: hire. Thus the credit market will ease for small business. We may see much
: better consumption
: and improved hiring in Q4. It may turn out QE3 is no longer necessary in the end.
: It is possible the economy does not improve by Spring, and QE3 is still
: necessary. After that, Bernake may have to use another round of OT to
: stablize $. The problem is eventually solvable given the fundamentals of US
|
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