f*********9
发帖数: 1986 | 1 注意timing,在所有major banks ER 出来之前，花街的鼓手已经“三军未动，粮草先行
”了，又在开始鼓吹银行股了，是阴谋还是阳谋？各位看官说说。
The financial industry is in far better shape than the stocks in the sector
would lead you to believe. Financials are the worst-performing sector in the
Standard & Poor's 500 index so far this year, with a decline of more than
20%, and losses of 40% or more in such notable stocks as Bank of America,
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The S&P 500 is off just 3%.
The stocks -- major banks, regional banks and trust banks, as well as life
take the real hit -- look appealing, with many trading at or below tangible
book value, a conservative measure of shareholder equity, and at single-
digit price/earnings multiples. The stocks are even cheaper based on stated
book value, which includes goodwill from acquisitions. Most stocks now
discount permanently low returns -- an overly bearish scenario -- just as
they reflected permanently high returns not so long ago. Dividends are often
in the 2% to 3% range -- and probably heading higher.
Bullish investors are excited because it is unusual to find low valuations
in the sector based on both book value and earnings. At the 2009 market low,
financials were valued cheaply based on book value but many were losing
money and needed to raise tens of billions of dollars of new capital.
"There is massive undervaluation across the spectrum," says Matthew
Lindenbaum, a principal at Basswood Partners, a New York investment firm. "
People have been running away from the group, and investors are
underweighted in financials. You can put together a diversified portfolio of
financials that should do well in three years. It may require a little
patience." He points to Goldman (ticker: GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), State
Street (STT) and Comerica (CMA).
Banks and other financial companies generally are producing healthy profits
and building ample capital bases despite a long list of concerns, including
a weak economy, slack lending, margin contraction, low interest rates,
regulatory pressure, mortgage litigation, poor trading conditions,
proprietary trading restrictions and European financial turmoil. (For a
survey of bargains among European bank stocks, see page M6.) But the current
situation is a far cry from the one in late 2008 and 2009, when the
industry was on a financial precipice.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was the first major bank to report third-quarter
earnings. Its results, released Thursday, were decent in light of tough
conditions. The bank earned $1.02 a share, a dime better than the consensus
estimate, and about flat with the year-earlier period. Profits were
bolstered by a noncash gain of 17 cents related to weakness in the bank's
own debt and those of some its derivative counterparties -- a weird factor
mandated by accounting rules. Without that, earnings would have disappointed
. JPMorgan's shares fell 5% on the news, to under $32 at Thursday's close, a
slight discount to tangible book. The bank was cautious on the outlook for
the fourth quarter and 2012.
On the plus side, it bought back 3% of its shares in the quarter and
bolstered already strong capital ratios. Most major banks report third-
quarter results this week.
Many financials could appreciate by 50% by the end of next year, including
giants JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs; regional banks
such as Comerica, Suntrust (STI) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB); trust
banks State Street and Bank of New York (BK), and life insurers Prudential
Financial (PRU) and MetLife (MET).
The knock on the group is that there are too many issues and head winds for
the stocks to do well anytime soon. It is tough to assess the potential
impact of a European financial crisis on big American banks, and investors
recognize that despite higher capital ratios and talk by managements about
their "fortress balance sheets," banks are highly leveraged and depend on
the confidence of lenders and depositors.
"No catalyst" is the familiar investor refrain. Yet the financial sector is
up 13% from its Oct. 3 low, and could extend those gains if profit reports
in the next few weeks reassure investors and Europe avoids a financial
crisis. "If the economy does reasonably well, and you see some loan growth
and higher interest rates, there could be a stampede back into these stocks,
" Lindenbaum says.
The widely followed KBW Bank index is off 28% so far this year and trades
for about a third of its 2007 peak. All of the 24 stocks in the index are in
the red this year. At the October low, the index was down 40% from its
February high.
"There are a lot of questions about Europe and the regulatory and legal
environment, but we believe banks can manage through them," says Jason
Goldberg, banking analyst at Barclays Capital. "Most banks will have higher
third-quarter earnings than a year ago, with higher loan balances, higher
tangible book value, record capital and deposits and improving credit
quality. It's a much different backdrop than a few years ago."
Major U.S. banks are in better shape than their European counterparts, many
of which may have to sell stock to bolster capital, reduce the size of their
balance sheets or jettison divisions. "The shrinking of European banks
could be an opportunity for big U.S. banks," says John McDonald, the banking
analyst at Sanford Bernstein.
U.S. banks could make further inroads internationally or acquire businesses
that might be sold by European institutions. Many think Switzerland's UBS
might consider a sale of its U.S. retail brokerage operations, which
consists mainly of the old PaineWebber.
Investors also can buy a range of bank-related exchange-traded funds,
including the SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE), which tracks the BKX index; the SPDR
KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE); and the broader Financial Select Sector SPDR
(XLF), which tracks all financial stocks in the S&P 500. The trio yields
around 2%. Two ETFs with triple leverage to the XLF are Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X (FAS) and Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X (FAZ).
Banks have replaced energy companies as the most hated industry in
Washington. "Occupy Wall Street" activists have camped out in New York for
about four weeks, and there have been protests in other cities against what
a supporter and former New York Times reporter has called "the lords of
finance," a group "impervious to human suffering, bloated from unchecked
greed and privilege." While this may be a fringe group, there is broad
populist anger directed at banks, stemming in part from the perception that
the U.S. bailed out big banks -- and their richly paid employees -- while
ordinary Americans were left to fend for themselves.
Just look at the storm caused by Bank of America's recent proposal to charge
checking-account customers a $5 monthly fee for using debit cards, after
Congress mandated sharp cuts in fees paid to banks on debit-card
transactions -- which turned out to be a boon to merchants, not consumers.
Banking services are unappreciated by many politicians and consumers, who
seem to think they should be provided free despite the expense required to
offer nationwide ATMs, transaction networks, branches and electronic banking
.
The biggest banks have some of the lowest valuations and some of the biggest
challenges. Bank of America, at $6 and change, and Citigroup, at below $28,
trade for less than 60% of tangible book value and for under six times
projected 2012 profit estimates. JPMorgan trades for six times 2012 profits.
Reflecting its higher returns, Wells Fargo (WFC) is the most expensive
stock in the quartet, trading for $26, or 1.5 times tangible book and eight
times projected '12 profits. The bank reports earnings Monday and could
deliver a positive surprise.
A new problem for the big banks seems to surface every month. There was the
so-called Durbin Rule, cutting debit-card fees, proposed international
standards that would impose a higher capital burden for the largest banks,
litigation over trillions of dollars of mortgages originated by big banks
before the 2008 financial crisis, and just recently the so-called Volcker
Rule, which will limit banks' proprietary trading.
Much could be said about any one of these topics; Bernstein's McDonald wrote
a 33-page report on mortgage litigation titled "Analyzing the Un-Analyzable
." His view is that large U.S. banks should be able handle these claims with
"existing reserves, earnings and capital." Bank of America, the most
heavily targeted bank for litigation, already has realized losses or set
aside reserves of more than $30 billion for legacy mortgage exposure.
McDonald is partial to several of the big banks, including JPMorgan and
Citigroup. "JPMorgan has spent the last two years building out its franchise
," McDonald says. It has expanded its retail banking presence, bolstered
private banking and asset management, and pushed into the high-end credit-
card market. McDonald has an Outperform rating and a $46 price target.
Citigroup seems too cheap, trading at a fraction of its June 30 tangible
book value of $48. Investors seem to have recognized that, as the stock has
rallied 20% from its Oct. 3 low of $23. Many hedge funds have bought Citi
and sold short Bank of America, figuring that the two stocks have similar
valuations and that Citi is in better shape.
Citigroup has the industry's best international retail and corporate-banking
franchise and less exposure to mortgage litigation than any of the other
major U.S. banks. McDonald believes Citigroup is capable of generating $5 a
share in annual profits, a moderate 10% return on tangible book. The market
now seems to be pricing in just half that profit level. Analysts expect
Citigroup to earn almost $4 a share this year and $4.70 in 2012. McDonald
has a $45 price target on the stock.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
10-15-11 0005ET
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. | f*********9
发帖数: 1986 | 2 JPM 算是几家大银行里表现最好的了，在稳健的基础上慢慢的扩大自己的地盘，这次抢着做了出ER的急先锋，本以为亮丽的成绩单，结果还是被花街踩在脚下。周四、周五两天的表现已经很说明问题了，没有回到ER之前的水平，表明投资者已经质疑JPM的盈利能力是不是象ER里说的那么好，不是花街的打手随便写两篇文章就可以拉抬起来的，文章的下篇（没有贴出来）用了很长的篇幅写狗剩多么多么的好，让人不经联想...各位想赌下周金融ER的小心了，别中了花街的诡计，让你去接盘，抱着这些吹捧银行的狗屁文章在深度水下做梦到2012年。各大银行的财报除了暴露他们越来越疲弱的盈利能力和日渐增加的expense and risk exposure 之外就没有其他的了。 | w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 3 金融是烫手的山芋，现在基本上有钱的都是投资在TECH和那种high dividend稳健股票
，所以这个pump是可以理解的，谈不上啥阴谋，risk taker会自己定夺的。
呵呵，就是需要千年牛市啊，这样花街做梦都要笑了
lol | y***k
发帖数: 1078 | 4 TA wise, finance stocks are in good shapes. |
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