d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 http://seekingalpha.com/article/340851-method-to-the-zynga-madn
In the last 10 days, Zynga (ZNGA) managed to go from $8.53 to $13.34, for a
full 56% return. Given how overvalued the stock seemed even before rallying,
it's hard to see why it would go up so much.
But there's a method to the madness.
You can actually rationalize the climb. It has to do with Facebook's IPO.
Facebook will certainly get a $100 billion valuation right out of the gate,
and will then add several tens of billions to that when it trades.
Now, through Facebook's S-1, we got to know that it:
Had revenues of $3.71 billion in 2011;
12% of those revenues came from Zynga;
17.6% of Facebook's revenues are from virtual goods and payments and that is
the fastest growing segment.
We also knew that Zynga had $1 billion in TTM revenues and is growing about
as fast as Facebook itself, which is expected to continue.
In short
The method to the madness is that if Facebook is going to be worth north of
$100 billion, and Zynga should be around one-fourth Facebook's size, and
present in the fastest growing of Facebook's segments, then Zynga can be
worth as much as one-fourth of Facebook, which would put it at least $35 per
share, given 700 million outstanding shares.
What do I think about this?
A huge bubble is forming all around Facebook. Investors are once again
throwing caution to the wind and buying anything that smells of tech, be it
Amazon.com (AMZN) after some more horrid earnings, Zynga on the relative
scale, Netsuite (N) on very dubious earnings or even Groupon (GRPN), which
has already shown to have a much lower margin business than Facebook due to
the hordes of salesmen it requires. | g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 2 我觉得一两年内应该能到30，如果online gambling合法化，znga能过40，说不定50 |
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