i*u
发帖数: 299 | 1 Stocks rose gradually back by the positive economic data. Even though
January retail sales were slightly disappointed, other data continued to
indicate healthy recovery signs: initial claims surprisingly fell to multi-
year lows (348k vs. 368k est.), meantime the home builders' index (29 vs. 26
est.) and housing starts (699k vs. 688k est.) both reached new high after
the financial crisis. On the fixed income front, bonds faced pressure toward
the recent FOMC minutes as less members were favored toward QE3. The short-
term rates rallied the most and the 10-year finished above 2% for the week
resulted from optimistic economy and lower chance of more QE. Market will
continue to focus on more housing data next week after the holiday.
Technical Highlights:
• Equities rally led by positive economic data; FOMC place pressure on
bonds for another round of QE.
• Trend continued to strengthen; the Golden Cross arrived to the NYSE
index.
• Cautious on equity as energy finished with the most gains for the
week, which may be a signal of a stock market top.
• Historical returns appear bullish bias toward the middle sectors (
energy and materials), and bearish on the leading group (technology and
financials) for equities forward looking.
• Treasury rates rally led by the Fed; the 2yr is approaching to its
200days moving average, which may become a resistance.
read more at...
http://www.alpbeta.com/p/plus.html
or
http://plus.alpbeta.com/report/201207.pdf | i*u
发帖数: 299 | 2 I made a mistake...
• Historical returns appear bullish bias toward the middle sectors (
energy and MATERIALS), and bearish on the leading group (technology and
financials) for equities forward looking.
it should be materials not industrial. | i*u
发帖数: 299 | 3 2/17/2012 ~ 2/24/2012
Return Projection
SPX 0.33%
XLP -0.06% Neutral
XLV -0.14% Bearish
XLU 0.09% Neutral
XLK 1.05% Bearish
XLF -0.81% Bearish
XLI 0.54% Neutral
XLE 1.84% Bullish
XLY -0.23% Neutral
XLB 0.48% Bullish
Success Rate 80% |
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