r***s
发帖数: 1805 | 1 不太相信这秃子, 但这些分析还是有道理的. 今年全世界的经济要比2011年差,
但不会出现2009年的情况. 今年的底点还在后面, GS的分析也有一定道理. 大家不要被
对FED的高期望迷惑了.
=================
The most likely scenario, according to Cramer, is that things might look, by
the end of the year, a bit worse than they were in 2011.
==================
2 Worst Case Scenarios For The Market
Cramer outlined two worst case scenarios for the economy.
1. The Dow could fall 10%, repeating the performance of 2011.
2. The Dow could drop 50%, as it did in 2009.
Cramer thinks it is possible that, if constructive action isn't taken soon
in Europe, a repeat of the 2011 scenario is possible, but he doesn't see
2009 happening again. Europe is in worse shape than last year, China has
cooled off and Brazil is decelerating. It is possible that U.S. debt could
receive another downgrade and employment, while higher than last year, is
not improving. Factors to mitigate this harsh 2011-like picture are that
housing is stabilizing, 3 million more cars are being sold in the U.S. than
last year, companies have clean balance sheets and great profits,
commodities are coming down and the consumer is spending. Still, Cramer
thinks the 2011 scenario has a 50/50 chance of repeating itself.
The 2009 scenario is very unlikely to happen again, in spite of the
possibility of entire countries failing, because domestic banks are stronger
than they were prior to the recession. There are more domestic jobs,
mortgage rates are low and companies are raising dividends.
The most likely scenario, according to Cramer, is that things might look, by
the end of the year, a bit worse than they were in 2011. | r***s
发帖数: 1805 | 2 到九月再看是不是如此.
by
【在 r***s 的大作中提到】
: 不太相信这秃子, 但这些分析还是有道理的. 今年全世界的经济要比2011年差,
: 但不会出现2009年的情况. 今年的底点还在后面, GS的分析也有一定道理. 大家不要被
: 对FED的高期望迷惑了.
: =================
: The most likely scenario, according to Cramer, is that things might look, by
: the end of the year, a bit worse than they were in 2011.
: ==================
: 2 Worst Case Scenarios For The Market
: Cramer outlined two worst case scenarios for the economy.
: 1. The Dow could fall 10%, repeating the performance of 2011.
| c****t
发帖数: 5452 | 3 cramer是个直会喊buy buy buy，不见棺材不掉泪的主儿，他这个里面列的要是都变成
现实只能说今年美国比去年好得多，housing stabilizing一个就够了 | r***s
发帖数: 1805 | 4 我觉得问题是全世界有开始slow down, 再持续下去, 谁也救不了谁. 再看看.
【在 c****t 的大作中提到】
: cramer是个直会喊buy buy buy，不见棺材不掉泪的主儿，他这个里面列的要是都变成
: 现实只能说今年美国比去年好得多，housing stabilizing一个就够了
| s*****r
发帖数: 11545 | 5 我觉得道指今年可能跌破11000， 希望能跌50%， 哈哈。 | s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 6 先知早就说过housing没十年缓不过来。 数数日子， 至少还有三四年。
【在 r***s 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得问题是全世界有开始slow down, 再持续下去, 谁也救不了谁. 再看看.
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