m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 1 GNW.
Stock has a book value over $30
Pro:
1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
the last 4 years.
3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
improve greatly if they happen.
CON;
International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
Their corportaion structure is a little too complicated for most investors
The stock tends to move very quickly on either direction.
I own 30,000 shares right now.
Disclaim: Stock has risk, you need to do your own DD before investing. You
are responsable for your loss or gain. |
b******r
发帖数: 16603 | |
i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | |
t*********3
发帖数: 4304 | |
M***m
发帖数: 762 | 5 mark
now)
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
k***a
发帖数: 2258 | 6 牛股，底部很漂亮，应该准备要突破了
now)
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | |
g***e
发帖数: 1256 | 8 listed to watch for loading later.
Thanks!
now)
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
m*********0
发帖数: 1139 | 9 the chart looks promising |
x*****i
发帖数: 283 | |
|
|
y******2
发帖数: 326 | 11 Profitability margins are too small. Earning are not consistent. Even though
many analyst say it's good and chart TA are good, I would not hold this for
long term. May be several month if you look at it everyday and set stop
loss. |
i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | |
c*******o
发帖数: 5387 | |
D*********t
发帖数: 5748 | 14 wo kao, you make my day!
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: 先囤点，俺就看了第一行，后面全靠信任了。
|
b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 15 Kao, Caicai is trustable.
u rookie know nothing about long term, watch and learn!
【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: wo kao, you make my day!
|
R****r
发帖数: 609 | 16 Put it into my watch list. Thanks for sharing.
now)
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
D*********t
发帖数: 5748 | 17 kao, next entry point will be weeks later...
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: Kao, Caicai is trustable.
: u rookie know nothing about long term, watch and learn!
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 18 If the profit could be restored and earning is consistent, then the stock
should be traded over $30 like 5 years ago. Huge loss in the US mortgage
sector really screwed the whole thing. At least that part should be behind
them next year.
though
for
【在 y******2 的大作中提到】
: Profitability margins are too small. Earning are not consistent. Even though
: many analyst say it's good and chart TA are good, I would not hold this for
: long term. May be several month if you look at it everyday and set stop
: loss.
|
y******2
发帖数: 326 | 19 I hope you are right. Recalling your track records, you are probably right.
But I don't feel like taking big risk before a vacation. It's definitely in
my watchlist though, like 虎子 said.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: If the profit could be restored and earning is consistent, then the stock
: should be traded over $30 like 5 years ago. Huge loss in the US mortgage
: sector really screwed the whole thing. At least that part should be behind
: them next year.
:
: though
: for
|
X*********r
发帖数: 11803 | 20 刚放到＂short list watch＂上。过几天short了的话就贴个screen copy
now)
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
|
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 21 First of all, Good Luck!
Second, I think this stock is not a value stock, but a trading play.
As you have pointed out, this company is complicatedly structured...and so
are their products and accounting practice. For the past three, four years,
their operation has improved marginally. Their book value, however, has
increased steadily. Why? The increase was not caused by operating, investing
, or even financing activities. The increase was caused by accounting
adjustments, based on the management's judgement on the future contractual
obligations.
I'm NOT in a position to judge the management or the stock price, but wanted
to point out that, because of the subjective "judgement", the stock price
could be volatile. A good quality seat belt is highly recommended, if anyone
wants to ride this thing.
now)
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 22 你研究过GNW了?
我可是花了10个小时。我以前在保险公司做过Actuary(very brief time)!
future contractual obligations是怎么来的? 你听说过 GAAP, statutory reserves
吗?
,
investing
to
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: First of all, Good Luck!
: Second, I think this stock is not a value stock, but a trading play.
: As you have pointed out, this company is complicatedly structured...and so
: are their products and accounting practice. For the past three, four years,
: their operation has improved marginally. Their book value, however, has
: increased steadily. Why? The increase was not caused by operating, investing
: , or even financing activities. The increase was caused by accounting
: adjustments, based on the management's judgement on the future contractual
: obligations.
: I'm NOT in a position to judge the management or the stock price, but wanted
|
i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | 23
大牛，卖的时候来说一声啊
青蛙无脑跟，能赚点就好
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: 你研究过GNW了?
: 我可是花了10个小时。我以前在保险公司做过Actuary(very brief time)!
: future contractual obligations是怎么来的? 你听说过 GAAP, statutory reserves
: 吗?
:
: ,
: investing
: to
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 24 看了看年报。这个事情和actuary 关系不大。 主要在对折现率的把握。
Book value和股价差距这么大，对book value就不能只看face value了。
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: 你研究过GNW了?
: 我可是花了10个小时。我以前在保险公司做过Actuary(very brief time)!
: future contractual obligations是怎么来的? 你听说过 GAAP, statutory reserves
: 吗?
:
: ,
: investing
: to
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 25 这有点复杂。
2009年, RDN's book Value was around 30, the stock was traded at 0.70 at one
time, after that the stock was rebound almost 20 at one time, So why RDN
was traded at 0.70 when the book value was 30?
Of course, GNW traded under $2 and rebounded close to 20 in 2010.
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 看了看年报。这个事情和actuary 关系不大。 主要在对折现率的把握。
: Book value和股价差距这么大，对book value就不能只看face value了。
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 26 GNW和这个RDN不完全一样。GNW60%的revenue来自于Life Insurance。大概只有20%来自
Mortgage Insurance。所以说它大概还应该算一个Life Insurance公司。
RDN是特殊情况，是由死到生的区别。
Insurance 公司说一千道一万，就两个东西可看。一个是premium growth，一个是
combined ratio。GNW的Premium部分就不说了，profitability这一块，短期可以有不
同看法。长期必然回归，如果premium没有起色的话。这就是我所说的不是value
investment的本意。
one
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: 这有点复杂。
: 2009年, RDN's book Value was around 30, the stock was traded at 0.70 at one
: time, after that the stock was rebound almost 20 at one time, So why RDN
: was traded at 0.70 when the book value was 30?
: Of course, GNW traded under $2 and rebounded close to 20 in 2010.
|
s**********o
发帖数: 14359 | |
c*****v
发帖数: 839 | |
h**********5
发帖数: 5355 | 29 我八月4刀时侯想入没入，更悲催。。。
【在 s**********o 的大作中提到】
: 我赚了点跑路了，结果错过了大涨，哭死啊
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 30 大牛，贴个screen copy!
【在 X*********r 的大作中提到】
: 刚放到＂short list watch＂上。过几天short了的话就贴个screen copy
:
: now)
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
|
|
|
t****9
发帖数: 4491 | 31 very lihai!
【在 X*********r 的大作中提到】
: 刚放到＂short list watch＂上。过几天short了的话就贴个screen copy
:
: now)
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
|
H******e
发帖数: 4682 | |
v***0
发帖数: 5096 | 33 dip like shit now ...
【在 H******e 的大作中提到】
: wow!
|
i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | 34 Cost 6.xx 吧
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 v***0 的大作中提到】
: dip like shit now ...
|
x**********g
发帖数: 618 | |
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 36 GNW.
Stock has a book value over $30
Pro:
1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
the last 4 years.
3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
improve greatly if they happen.
CON;
International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
Their corportaion structure is a little too complicated for most investors
The stock tends to move very quickly on either direction.
I own 30,000 shares right now.
Disclaim: Stock has risk, you need to do your own DD before investing. You
are responsable for your loss or gain. |
a*****e
发帖数: 16445 | |
j*******i
发帖数: 1457 | 38 牛掰
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: GNW.
: Stock has a book value over $30
: Pro:
: 1) Their main life insurance unit should see a improvement next year
: 2) US mortgage operation should turn profit after loss over 1.3 billion in
: the last 4 years.
: 3) Possible Austria mortgage unit IPO, their financial position should
: improve greatly if they happen.
: CON;
: International mortgage could go bad(no evidence that is happening right now)
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 39 this is greatly timed entry on Dec 6.
my question is did Minncai hold through the correction from 9.5-8? |
j*******i
发帖数: 1457 | 40 大夫 有什么好目标 叫上小弟 这周我没有好目标 大盘也看不懂
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: this is greatly timed entry on Dec 6.
: my question is did Minncai hold through the correction from 9.5-8?
|
|
|
r****5
发帖数: 618 | 41 MinCai, you are one of the best traders. The picks you recommended have
very common attributes. GNW/XIN are all very strong will be stars in 2013.
CNO is also a good one. Thank. |
s*******r
发帖数: 3429 | |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 43 YY seems to find support at 17, i long a small position.
【在 j*******i 的大作中提到】
: 大夫 有什么好目标 叫上小弟 这周我没有好目标 大盘也看不懂
|
r*****e
发帖数: 4611 | |
a*****e
发帖数: 121 | 45 去年9月5块钱多点的时候进去了，可惜当时是卖的1月份6块的put，只吃到个零头。
这个股票的风险在于澳大利亚的mortgage insurance. 看一下他们2012年财报，
international mortgage revenue 822m, income 349m. 这个部门revenue占比8.2%，
利润占比108%（其它部门加起来是亏损的）。抢钱一样。不过风险很大，很像mtg，rdn
在美国房产泡沫未破之前。
如果他们能spin off这个部门，风险降低了，但是利润也要减少（占比小了）。能spin
off的话，我觉得是一个好消息。
它的life insurance前些年定价错误，吃亏了。不过对于它来说这是一个低点。以后只
有变好的可能。我还要仔细研究下life insurance。
它的mortgage insurance也是刚刚从低点开始往上爬。
barrons周末刚刚发了一篇pump的文章，即使要买，也等它回调一点可能好一些。 |
