g****e
发帖数: 1426 | 1 Current: $3.80
Target: $5 (in 2-4 months)
Agenus Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in developing and
commercializing technologies to treat cancers and infectious diseases. Its
technology portfolio consists of saponin adjuvant based technologies and
heat shock protein based technologies.
Bullish reasons.
1. 5 key catalysts near term during the second half of 2013 and into 2014
a>the Phase 3 data read-out at GSK MAGE-A3 program for melanoma.
b>the Phase 2 data read-out for HerpV for the treatment of genital
herpes.
c>long-term efficacy data for GSK RTS,S program for the prevention of
malaria.
d>an update to Prophage Series program for GBM. And finally,
e>the Phase 3 data read-out GSK MAGE-A3 program for non-small cell lung
cancer.
Very impressive phase 2 results on MAGE-A3 program: Results Seventy-five
patients were treated, with 36 eligible patients per arm. Both treatments
were well tolerated. In the AS15 arm, four objective responses were observed
(three complete responses and one partial response) versus one partial
response in the AS02B arm. In the AS15 and AS02B arms, the PFS rates after 6
months were 25% and 14%, respectively; and the median OS times were 33
months and 19.9 months, respectively, with a median observation period of 48
months. Antibodies against MAGE-A3, found in all patients, showed three-
fold higher titers in the AS15 arm. Therefore, the AS15 immunostimulant was
selected for combination with the MAGE-A3 protein in phase III trials.
2. Insider buys
Aug 1, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 3,437 Direct Acquisition at $3.84 per share
Jul 10, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 547,321 Direct Acquisition at $3.75 per share
Jul 1, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 3,515 Direct Acquisition at $3.75 per share.
3. Undervalue compareing to its pipeline potential
Agenus: Near-Term Drivers With A Market Opportunity Over $17 Billion:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1377581-agenus-near-term-drivers-with-a-market-opportunity-over-17-billion?source=yahoo
4. Retired its outstanding $39 million 8.0% senior secured convertible notes
due August 2014. It was the main reason why AGEN didn't rise. It is about
time for AGEN to gain momentum in share price as approaching the key
catalysts near term.
Risks:
1. likely dilution in later 2013
Cash and cash equivalents were $13.4M as of 06/30/2013. Cash burn in
last Q was about $20M. My bet is dilution should be at much higher price.
2. Technecally testing its day moving average 3.81 and below MA(200) $4.15
3. Negatiev outcomes of clinical trials
Disclosure: long AGEN. Do your own due diligence before investing. |
g**a
发帖数: 953 | 2 AGEN的MAGE－A3已经出来的结果不理想。其实二期结果看着算是不错的。 |
g**a
发帖数: 953 | 3 good results for glioblastoma came out today! |
o********n
发帖数: 1329 | 4 买了， 谢谢
【在 g**a 的大作中提到】
: good results for glioblastoma came out today!
|
g****e
发帖数: 1426 | 5 Good luck. I still have it under water and plan to be long, the only reason
for long is its CEO keep buying very month(about 1/3 his salary). |
g**a
发帖数: 953 | 6 I am still under water as well, almost wanted to cut it until today. |
g****e
发帖数: 1426 | 7 今天把AGEN 卖. 看了一个新闻说药成本跟DNDN 的差不多. 亏得好心疼. 对不起跟着买
了的股友们. |
o********n
发帖数: 1329 | 8 为啥“药成本跟DNDN 的差不多”就该卖了？ 能解释一下不？
【在 g****e 的大作中提到】
: 今天把AGEN 卖. 看了一个新闻说药成本跟DNDN 的差不多. 亏得好心疼. 对不起跟着买
: 了的股友们.
|
g****e
发帖数: 1426 | 9 http://www.earningsimpact.com/Transcript/83759/IMUC/ImmunoCellu
Here is the article I referred to. My 6th sense told me to sell. |
o********n
发帖数: 1329 | 10 AGEN 今天大涨， 小青蛙我也出水了。
sell or hold ?
大牛出来说说吧。
【在 o********n 的大作中提到】
: 为啥“药成本跟DNDN 的差不多”就该卖了？ 能解释一下不？
|
l*****o
发帖数: 19653 | 11 抱头痛哭啊，我也快出来了。。。
【在 o********n 的大作中提到】
: AGEN 今天大涨， 小青蛙我也出水了。
: sell or hold ?
: 大牛出来说说吧。
|
g**a
发帖数: 953 | 12 good news about malaria vaccine. 他们家insider最近还在买股票。奇怪的是居然
Oct 1st 有人用3.4X的买了一些。不太
理解，也许report date 不同。 |
o********n
发帖数: 1329 | 13 I have 5000 shares and I will hold them for you, brother.
No worries. It will soar, I can see that from the chart.
Just wait with patience.
Cheers!
【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】
: 抱头痛哭啊，我也快出来了。。。
|
