r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 1 I did a little research. just compare dang, vips and litb
Q2 Rev Q3 guidance growth market cap Enterprise Value
vips: 351M ~137% 2.14B 1.82B
litb 72.2M ~35% 0.5B 0.9B
dang 243M ~23% 0.74B 0.5B
I used yahoo finance data. double-check numbers yourself if it influences
your decision
So there is good reason why vips is way more expensive than litb and dang.
Vips' numbers are splendid. If vips' numbers are real, they indeed are doing
a great job.
But bad news for litb is, if we put vips as benchmark, litb is still
expensive (at least not cheap) at this point (about $10). The real bad
number for Litb is that "35%" of Q3 gudance. 35% is toooooooooooo bad. No
wonder it dropped 40% after ER. Investors were looking for a number like 120
%. 35% is astonishingly bad.
For dang, I think it is at an ok level. All those companies, their values
are tied together. If one goes down or up, it will influence the others on
some level.
I have no suggestion to those guys who already bought litb. I just want to
point out litb is still not cheap if you compare it to its peers. |
m********o
发帖数: 2088 | 2 Thanks for the analysis. |
D*****7
发帖数: 766 | 3 但LITB有个特殊的地方就是他的承销商们还没吃着肉呢，如果现在已经过了6个月的解
禁期了，这个分析是很有意义的。
现在对LITB来说，9.5的IPO价是个很大的支撑，承销商们有足够的实力把价格拉到一个
对他们来说不算亏费的价格，9.5*（100%+x）。
对于小青蛙/蝌蚪来说，看着6个月的这条线，及时跑路，然后再来研究你的这个对比，
决定什么时候再吃进LITB
doing
【在 r***l 的大作中提到】
: I did a little research. just compare dang, vips and litb
: Q2 Rev Q3 guidance growth market cap Enterprise Value
: vips: 351M ~137% 2.14B 1.82B
: litb 72.2M ~35% 0.5B 0.9B
: dang 243M ~23% 0.74B 0.5B
: I used yahoo finance data. double-check numbers yourself if it influences
: your decision
: So there is good reason why vips is way more expensive than litb and dang.
: Vips' numbers are splendid. If vips' numbers are real, they indeed are doing
: a great job.
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 4 为什么DANG的23%你说还可以，LITB的35%你说很差？ |
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 5 litb才72m收入啊，没有100%成长怎么见人啊
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 为什么DANG的23%你说还可以，LITB的35%你说很差？
|
H*****D
发帖数: 4462 | 6 顶大牛！
doing
【在 r***l 的大作中提到】
: I did a little research. just compare dang, vips and litb
: Q2 Rev Q3 guidance growth market cap Enterprise Value
: vips: 351M ~137% 2.14B 1.82B
: litb 72.2M ~35% 0.5B 0.9B
: dang 243M ~23% 0.74B 0.5B
: I used yahoo finance data. double-check numbers yourself if it influences
: your decision
: So there is good reason why vips is way more expensive than litb and dang.
: Vips' numbers are splendid. If vips' numbers are real, they indeed are doing
: a great job.
|
t***l
发帖数: 341 | |
p*****h
发帖数: 188 | 8 谢谢大牛的分析。很到位！我觉得大牛分析得很理性。 可怜的我在中概上面亏废了。
我还死握着Dang和Date.
【在 r***l 的大作中提到】
: litb才72m收入啊，没有100%成长怎么见人啊
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 9 just my point of view, if this is the case, next time whatever there is an
IPO, we just no-brain buy because big boys won't let it go down under IPO
price before unlock of IPO. Sounds unreal to me....look at facebook. It went
down below IPO price next day of IPO day and just came back recently. I am
sure FB's underwriters still make big money.
【在 D*****7 的大作中提到】
: 但LITB有个特殊的地方就是他的承销商们还没吃着肉呢，如果现在已经过了6个月的解
: 禁期了，这个分析是很有意义的。
: 现在对LITB来说，9.5的IPO价是个很大的支撑，承销商们有足够的实力把价格拉到一个
: 对他们来说不算亏费的价格，9.5*（100%+x）。
: 对于小青蛙/蝌蚪来说，看着6个月的这条线，及时跑路，然后再来研究你的这个对比，
: 决定什么时候再吃进LITB
:
: doing
|
