Stock版 - 不要玩 JCP 了， 有的话 换 PWE 吧。 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 1 有人买 JCP 无非是希望有 big percentage 回报， 希望像当初的 BAC, or C.
但 JCP 跟 BAC/C 完全不一样。 美国政府会出手救 BAC/C. 不会救JCP.
JCP business 的 竟争要大的多了(from online stores to Macy's, Kohls, Ross
/TJMax). 网上商店的流行导致几家运行不好的实体店的倒闭那是很自然。
回到主题，已经有了 JCP 的，或在找 big percentage 怎么办 ？看一下这篇文章。
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/collect-7-yield-while-beaten-1600
要得到 3X 的回报可能不是那么容易，但是 up 50% in 6-12 months 是很容易的 .
在 12-18月 翻个倍是很有可能。 有 JCP 的话，换 PWE 吧.
我来说说我对 PWE 的基本面的看法(我打中文太慢了，换英文了）。
* PWE valuation is lower than JCP based on the PB ratio (0.4 vs 0.65).
* PWE business has lower risk than JCP. It primary depends on oil and NG
price， and the production cost.
* PWE has about 7% dividend. Its CEO already mentioned 2 weeks back that he
is comfortable to keep the dividend. Its cash flow should be enough to
maintain the dividend, plus it is in the process of selling assets.
* The current high NG price, and stable oil price will help PWE bottom line.
PWE will be able to sell those NG assets at better price.
* US government just approved exporting NG and oil to other countries. This
means NG and oil price in north America will be closer to the other
countries. Keep in mind that NG price in China and Japan is more than 3X
higher than north America price. NG price at $3 in north America will not
come back, may be forever because a lot of NG production lines are shutdown
due to the low NG price. Also this winter the record level cold weather used
up all inventory that's accumulated in the last 3 years. The inventory will
not be able to get refilled quickly for the same reason.
Then, what is the risk. I see the only risk is NG and oil price collapse for
whatever reasons, such as world wide big recession, like 2008.
还有其它什么 risk, 欢迎大家补充，拍砖。 | X*********r
发帖数: 11803 | 2 OK ty
Ross
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 有人买 JCP 无非是希望有 big percentage 回报， 希望像当初的 BAC, or C.
: 但 JCP 跟 BAC/C 完全不一样。 美国政府会出手救 BAC/C. 不会救JCP.
: JCP business 的 竟争要大的多了(from online stores to Macy's, Kohls, Ross
: /TJMax). 网上商店的流行导致几家运行不好的实体店的倒闭那是很自然。
: 回到主题，已经有了 JCP 的，或在找 big percentage 怎么办 ？看一下这篇文章。
: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/collect-7-yield-while-beaten-1600
: 要得到 3X 的回报可能不是那么容易，但是 up 50% in 6-12 months 是很容易的 .
: 在 12-18月 翻个倍是很有可能。 有 JCP 的话，换 PWE 吧.
: 我来说说我对 PWE 的基本面的看法(我打中文太慢了，换英文了）。
: * PWE valuation is lower than JCP based on the PB ratio (0.4 vs 0.65).
| p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 3 关键的关键，看上去像是见底企稳了，上次暴跌的确有可能是砸盘吸筹。恭喜了。
Ross
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 有人买 JCP 无非是希望有 big percentage 回报， 希望像当初的 BAC, or C.
: 但 JCP 跟 BAC/C 完全不一样。 美国政府会出手救 BAC/C. 不会救JCP.
: JCP business 的 竟争要大的多了(from online stores to Macy's, Kohls, Ross
: /TJMax). 网上商店的流行导致几家运行不好的实体店的倒闭那是很自然。
: 回到主题，已经有了 JCP 的，或在找 big percentage 怎么办 ？看一下这篇文章。
: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/collect-7-yield-while-beaten-1600
: 要得到 3X 的回报可能不是那么容易，但是 up 50% in 6-12 months 是很容易的 .
: 在 12-18月 翻个倍是很有可能。 有 JCP 的话，换 PWE 吧.
: 我来说说我对 PWE 的基本面的看法(我打中文太慢了，换英文了）。
: * PWE valuation is lower than JCP based on the PB ratio (0.4 vs 0.65).
| x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 4 别拿PWE和JCP比啊。。。比JCP强不是买入理由。虽然PWE我也买了点 | a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 5 太对了。
我看到的危险有油价大跌，(气不像跌的样，再说气的比重不大)。资产卖不掉。产量继
续下降。现金流不够再减红利。CEO再过6个月还不能扭转，像前几个一样再被裁掉。。
。。这不就是向下的螺旋吗？
【在 x***n 的大作中提到】
: 别拿PWE和JCP比啊。。。比JCP强不是买入理由。虽然PWE我也买了点
| x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 6 我挺看好PWE的。。。从公司的角度看，不应该发红利
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 太对了。
: 我看到的危险有油价大跌，(气不像跌的样，再说气的比重不大)。资产卖不掉。产量继
: 续下降。现金流不够再减红利。CEO再过6个月还不能扭转，像前几个一样再被裁掉。。
: 。。这不就是向下的螺旋吗？
| a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 7 同意，我也买了。但要时时看到危险，换位思考。也是我要咨询小小人的原因。小小人
的FA不错的，又炒过APA，懂能源。我最佩服的。
好的要继续加仓，不好马上割肉。
【在 x***n 的大作中提到】
: 我挺看好PWE的。。。从公司的角度看，不应该发红利
| p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 8
The most important part is the price for the disposing assets.
Even some assets are sold at 80% of book value, they are still better
than current 40% of the market value.
Production reduction is somewhat expected when more assets are sold.
Overall, revenue will be smaller but margin should improve after some assets
are sold .
Energy company HES revenue dropped as much as 60% but stock more than
doubled after selling some assets. After HES sold some assets, it has money
to do share buyback and raise dividend. Therefore, the key is what's the
price it can get from those unwanted assets.
Now at least the positive thing is NG price is going up due the record level
cold weather, and the NG inventory has been used up. The inventory will not
come back soon.
GS forecast that NG price will be around $4.5 average this year. That's much
better than last year. The price of NG assets also will be higher due to
higher NG price. That will give PWE more flexibility in terms of selling NG
assets(sell if the price is good, otherwise, keep production with minimum
capital investment until NG average price going above $6).
【在 x***n 的大作中提到】
: 我挺看好PWE的。。。从公司的角度看，不应该发红利
| a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 9 Alberta delivery price is about 50 cents lower, thus percentage impact is
larger with the increase of NG price.
NG price spike will help long term price and asset value.
Cost is Canadian dollar based,which is falling and spot price for oil and
gas is dollar based which is rising.
On the other hand, most of the disposing assets are conventional play, thus
not capital efficient for E&P. I still tHink the biggest risk is the oil
price in 2014.
assets
money
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: The most important part is the price for the disposing assets.
: Even some assets are sold at 80% of book value, they are still better
: than current 40% of the market value.
: Production reduction is somewhat expected when more assets are sold.
: Overall, revenue will be smaller but margin should improve after some assets
: are sold .
: Energy company HES revenue dropped as much as 60% but stock more than
: doubled after selling some assets. After HES sold some assets, it has money
: to do share buyback and raise dividend. Therefore, the key is what's the
| p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 10 不知有没有人听了我的建议，把 JCP 换成 PWE 了。
我发帖时， PWE was trading at $7.30-$7.5.
今天突破了 $8.2 的 gap. Its chart looks good too.
再加一点有关它的基本面的。
大部分 PWE 的 assets are lands with oil and NG reserve.
这种 assets 随着时间会越来越贵。再加上现在 NG 和 oil 都涨的很好，
这些 assets 的价格也会越来越高。 |
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