p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 1 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
分析):
1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
close in a year, what a joke)
6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
, up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
product. even catch up in script numbers, at least 2 years away...
7. effect of recent adding of sale force (to 400 from 200)
8. GSK买断传闻 by 版上的股友(sorry, did not follow who said first, will add
if you claim)
By the way, this is one of the stocks I planned to gamble with professor for
mid to long term, he is great, I learned a lot from him, thanks, professor
for reminding me how to be a great member in this 股版!
本想用来回下帖, 为供多人参考, 也是响应教授号召, 在此新贴...欢迎探讨, 争论,
那个猪头之流换个马甲也欢迎, 注意用词, 小心版主拍您.....
YMYD!!!
原帖: 同主题阅读：看起来大牛们只能晒W2或股票账户才能震慑众青蛙了
LINK: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/35376627.html
方向的，赶紧割。
发信人: pineapplePie (RNN), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 看起来大牛们只能晒W2或股票账户才能震慑众青蛙了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 16 13:04:24 2014, 美东)
炒股炒成股东，泡妞泡成老公。。。是不情愿的被捂啊，大牛。。。压了我多少资金啊
。。。苦了自知啊。。。 | m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 2
will
盘"
不管咋说，减肥药没啥吸引力阿。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 3 没啥吸引力???? Do you know how much is the market? US is the No.2 in
obesity, next to Mexico, 1/3 of american are obesed based on BMI...bla bla
bla....whatever....I don't want to copy/paste what people said everywhere
else, just point out one down side that the number of obesity seeking for
medical treatment may not be as much as someone claimed, but still....
billions of dollars market......see how many Chinese are getting obesied now
? 没啥吸引力????
Also when VVUS first approved, up to over 20, when ARNA approved, up to over
12...all due to the expectation of the market, 没啥吸引力????
Most of the up/down so far are by 庄稼人．．．now the selling of great
product are out of their control...that is why I prefer ARNA more than OREX
in a long run, OREX is still under their control...
您一定很苗条．．．饱汉子不知饿汉子饥啊．．．．：）
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: will
: 盘"
: 不管咋说，减肥药没啥吸引力阿。
| w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 4 说的很好，但你忘了GSK买断传闻了，其实这家确实值得买断
如果我是GSK的老总，我也会买断它的 | i********c
发帖数: 962 | 5 不错的分析。谢谢楼主
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 6
now
over
还是没啥吸引力。这个真的是病？不是吃出来的？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 没啥吸引力???? Do you know how much is the market? US is the No.2 in
: obesity, next to Mexico, 1/3 of american are obesed based on BMI...bla bla
: bla....whatever....I don't want to copy/paste what people said everywhere
: else, just point out one down side that the number of obesity seeking for
: medical treatment may not be as much as someone claimed, but still....
: billions of dollars market......see how many Chinese are getting obesied now
: ? 没啥吸引力????
: Also when VVUS first approved, up to over 20, when ARNA approved, up to over
: 12...all due to the expectation of the market, 没啥吸引力????
: Most of the up/down so far are by 庄稼人．．．now the selling of great
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 7 To me, it is less likely by GSK if ARNA is ready to sell....but so far,
Eisai had put a lot of money in it and not much back yet, so IF it is really
GSK, they would have to pay at least 20 or more a share....even $10 is
ridiculous....
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 说的很好，但你忘了GSK买断传闻了，其实这家确实值得买断
: 如果我是GSK的老总，我也会买断它的
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 8
really
这股的risk是啥？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: To me, it is less likely by GSK if ARNA is ready to sell....but so far,
: Eisai had put a lot of money in it and not much back yet, so IF it is really
: GSK, they would have to pay at least 20 or more a share....even $10 is
: ridiculous....
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 9 这个真的是病？
Unfortunately, I have to say yes, or at least a "disease state" and closely
related to diabetes, heard diseases....I remember there is a recent news
about it officially, who would like to post the link if you have time?
thanks.
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: really
: 这股的risk是啥？
| j*******7
发帖数: 349 | 10 x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: really
: 这股的risk是啥？
| | | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 11 If you went through the history, you would know that the basher could do
anything they could to save their ass...at this stage, only one case---
someone died due to use of ARNA drug which elicit an extensive investigation
....from the years of clinical trail and on the market since last June, not
happen yet, so less likely. I could not figure out whatelse the basher could
do at this stage---more depend on the script numbers which is more
controlled by the insurance...bla, bla..bla..
The other is some other companies have a better one than ARNA's (theirs are
far from perfect)...at least I could not see it happening within 1-2 years,
I mean get FDA approved and drugs on the market...
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: really
: 这股的risk是啥？
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 12 You are absolutely right...
Good life habit, exercise...have been known and educated for several decades
, but the obesity rate has been increasing annually or even daily...
It is really easy to remember one word a day, has anyone done it so far for
more than a couple of months or years???? so...theory is one thing, the
reality is another...
【在 j*******7 的大作中提到】
: x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
: let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
: 靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
: 生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
: 以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
| y*****g
发帖数: 521 | 13 REALLY??
这个好！就应该有这种保险，一周两次就报销，两次以下就自费。督促我这种懒人健身。
我以为保险都越来越烂了呢。谁出的这么好的idea!
比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
【在 j*******7 的大作中提到】
: x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
: let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
: 靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
: 生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
: 以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 14
investigation
not
could
are
,
晕倒。你竟然看不到risk了。
药如果卖的不如预期好就完了吧。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: If you went through the history, you would know that the basher could do
: anything they could to save their ass...at this stage, only one case---
: someone died due to use of ARNA drug which elicit an extensive investigation
: ....from the years of clinical trail and on the market since last June, not
: happen yet, so less likely. I could not figure out whatelse the basher could
: do at this stage---more depend on the script numbers which is more
: controlled by the insurance...bla, bla..bla..
: The other is some other companies have a better one than ARNA's (theirs are
: far from perfect)...at least I could not see it happening within 1-2 years,
: I mean get FDA approved and drugs on the market...
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 15 Also most of the obesity people are poor, unfortunately---they eat too much
fast food like xxx.......most of them could not afford 去健身房, as an
alternative, they have more sex, which results in more kids and more poor...
but fortunately, most of them are more happier than those middle class like
us, or even those rich people, which make them more obesity---bad circle. so
the sales are mostly depending on insurance....that is why the recent news
are important, but the basher still want to collect more shares before the
script numbers fly..., I guess.....
【在 j*******7 的大作中提到】
: x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
: let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
: 靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
: 生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
: 以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 16
much
..
like
so
news
‘ most of the obesity people are poor,’我总觉得这个就是个risk。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: Also most of the obesity people are poor, unfortunately---they eat too much
: fast food like xxx.......most of them could not afford 去健身房, as an
: alternative, they have more sex, which results in more kids and more poor...
: but fortunately, most of them are more happier than those middle class like
: us, or even those rich people, which make them more obesity---bad circle. so
: the sales are mostly depending on insurance....that is why the recent news
: are important, but the basher still want to collect more shares before the
: script numbers fly..., I guess.....
| y*****g
发帖数: 521 | 17 能请问楼主的ARNA是什么时候买的吗？预期多少？ | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 18 Yes, that is my point: the insurance news, the incoming TV ad, the added
work force....
您是一年被蛇咬, 十年怕井绳啊．．．哪只该死的小药股, 我替您粥它.．．：）
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: much
: ..
: like
: so
: news
: ‘ most of the obesity people are poor,’我总觉得这个就是个risk。
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 19
我其实还没被咬泥，不过过list的时候，每每见到小妖的疯狂。仗未打，胆已怯。
我想问个问题。一般来讲FDA一prove，就有个大gap，这个gap的大小可以预测一些吗？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: Yes, that is my point: the insurance news, the incoming TV ad, the added
: work force....
: 您是一年被蛇咬, 十年怕井绳啊．．．哪只该死的小药股, 我替您粥它.．．：）
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 20 By common sense, what is the most important in the US?
Answer: VOTES!!!!!
How that connected to poor? to insurance? to medical bill? to ARNA? to our
portfolio? to our life????
Man, common sense can fly anywhere :)
Got to go, party time, will answer your further questions when I am back....
,
Oh, man, I have been typing since this morning, buy still not in Chinese----
I should have done more exercise than taking obesity drugs :)
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: 我其实还没被咬泥，不过过list的时候，每每见到小妖的疯狂。仗未打，胆已怯。
: 我想问个问题。一般来讲FDA一prove，就有个大gap，这个gap的大小可以预测一些吗？
| | | m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 21
我的common sense 是挣穷人的钱难。
..
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: By common sense, what is the most important in the US?
: Answer: VOTES!!!!!
: How that connected to poor? to insurance? to medical bill? to ARNA? to our
: portfolio? to our life????
: Man, common sense can fly anywhere :)
: Got to go, party time, will answer your further questions when I am back....
: ,
: Oh, man, I have been typing since this morning, buy still not in Chinese----
: I should have done more exercise than taking obesity drugs :)
| t*******h
发帖数: 409 | 22 这个要赞
也留意过一段时间，后来就没follow了
她的revenue怎么样？
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| b*d
发帖数: 3069 | 23 为啥VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug?
我印象中这家减的更多
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| t*******h
发帖数: 409 | 24 In the second quarter of 2013, Arena recognized $1.3 million in net product
sales, which is 31.5% of Eisai's net product sales of BELVIQ.
In the third quarter of 2013, Arena recognized 31.5% of Eisai's net product
sales (which were $5.4 million), or $1.7 million,
sales 5.4M/Q 也太少了， but ~30% increase by Q is impressive
看下一个Q怎么样吧
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 这个要赞
: 也留意过一段时间，后来就没follow了
: 她的revenue怎么样？
:
: will
: 盘"
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 25 Actually it is easy to make money from the poor, since those money are not
directly out of the poor's pocket but from the government, which were mainly
from the tax of the middle class like you and me....what can we do?_____win
big from the stock market? :)
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: 我的common sense 是挣穷人的钱难。
: ..
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 26 Not as expected since they had set it too high and are getting more
realistic now...
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 这个要赞
: 也留意过一段时间，后来就没follow了
: 她的revenue怎么样？
:
: will
: 盘"
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 27
mainly
win
poor的会那末在意减肥吗？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: Actually it is easy to make money from the poor, since those money are not
: directly out of the poor's pocket but from the government, which were mainly
: from the tax of the middle class like you and me....what can we do?_____win
: big from the stock market? :)
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 28 In a word, side effect, power struggling, and partially loss of interest
from the street...3CEOs in a month...can you believe it? First manhaton
with 10% of the company shares grap power but.....you can read all those
ugly stories if you are interested, I might not remember all those numbers
correctly, just ugly fight inthe past half year,....
【在 b*d 的大作中提到】
: 为啥VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug?
: 我印象中这家减的更多
:
: will
: 盘"
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 29 Hopefully better, but I am more like to see after June or July, better for
sure!!!
product
product
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: In the second quarter of 2013, Arena recognized $1.3 million in net product
: sales, which is 31.5% of Eisai's net product sales of BELVIQ.
: In the third quarter of 2013, Arena recognized 31.5% of Eisai's net product
: sales (which were $5.4 million), or $1.7 million,
: sales 5.4M/Q 也太少了， but ~30% increase by Q is impressive
: 看下一个Q怎么样吧
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 30 In the US, the most I have heard is "We are all equal...."
They want to live as long as we want, and they don't want to develop
diabetes or heart diseases later on due to obesity....as long as their
insurance cover most of the cost...they should...
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: mainly
: win
: poor的会那末在意减肥吗？
| | | m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 31
hope you are right。
药股的起伏与大势关联大吗？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: In the US, the most I have heard is "We are all equal...."
: They want to live as long as we want, and they don't want to develop
: diabetes or heart diseases later on due to obesity....as long as their
: insurance cover most of the cost...they should...
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 32 From what I had experienced in the past 1-2 years, mostly yes, but not
always, sometimes opposites, I don't know, such question should go to
Fengyun or longlaoshi, they know much much more and better than me, I have
not been in the stock market very long and only a couple of months here...
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: hope you are right。
: 药股的起伏与大势关联大吗？
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 33
嗯。好，等我开始炒作了就向几位大牛请教。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: From what I had experienced in the past 1-2 years, mostly yes, but not
: always, sometimes opposites, I don't know, such question should go to
: Fengyun or longlaoshi, they know much much more and better than me, I have
: not been in the stock market very long and only a couple of months here...
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 34 I am collecting data and working on such kind of issues now...but progress
very slow due to busy schedule and some technical issues, also too much time
typing here :(...would like to share with you once done--Once done, you
send me the company name, I will give you the prediction :)
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: 嗯。好，等我开始炒作了就向几位大牛请教。
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 35
time
太好了。我要开始做homework了。先学习准备一下。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: I am collecting data and working on such kind of issues now...but progress
: very slow due to busy schedule and some technical issues, also too much time
: typing here :(...would like to share with you once done--Once done, you
: send me the company name, I will give you the prediction :)
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 36 Before anyone started to load ARNA, I would highly recommend for a better
timing, consider the Q4 report which covers several holidays...
just a reminding...
Good luck!
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: time
: 太好了。我要开始做homework了。先学习准备一下。
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 37 Here's an interesting post I've found:
A DOCTOR SPEAKS RE: BELVIQ SHORTS CAN PASS ON THIS
PHYSICIAN: EIGHT REASONS IN FAVOR OF BELVIQ
I am a physician, long practicing, experienced, well read in research
literature, and it’s time we provide everyone with our thoughts. Here are
EIGHT REASONS BELVIQ IS PREFERRED FIRST LINE.
Everything else is media hype or misinformed HF/ MM, who could give a flip
about real patients.
The sacred Hippocratic Oath all we took upon med school graduation requires
us to put our patent's welfare first, balancing risks vs. potential benefits
for each.
No one treatment plan fits all. After extensive review and debate among us,
almost all of my local colleagues will start with BELVIQ. Why?
1) PATIENT SAFETY: BELVIQ WINS. Belviq has no severe REMS unlike Q. There is
no known teratogenic potential of cleft lip or palate defects, and no known
risk of amphetamine related morbidity, such as heart attack, cardiac
arrhythmias, or strokes.
2) WEIGHT LOSS EFFICACY: EQUIVALENT. Belviq and Qsymia are roughly
equivalent at 8% after 12 months in placebo adjusted studies with FDA
approved lower Q dosage. Higher Q dosage was NOT approved. Please do not try
to fool anyone unless you have really digested the real figures from BLOOM
AND BLOSSOM.
3) SIDE EFFECTS: BELVIQ WINS. BELVIQ confers on its users no feelings of
nervousness or feeling “wired:” Our patients do not desire this feeling.
4). PATIENT AND PRESCRIBER CONVENIENCE: BELVIQ WINS. Simple Rx, and get it
filled at local pharmacy. Qsymia requires labwork, frequent patient visits
to doctors, cardiac monitoring, blood pregnancy testing, which will have to
be done monthly. Any physician who prescribes Q will have his or her
schedule jammed up with Q surveillance, reducing physician availability to
others who require evaluation. The patient will have to have their Rx filled
at a mail order pharmacy.
5) REDUCTION IN ORAL CONTRACEPTIVE EFFECTIVENESS: BELVIQ WINS. BELVIQ causes
no reduction in contraceptive effectiveness. QSYMIA reduces birth control
pill effectiveness due to its hepatic topirmamine metabolism. How many
unintended pregnancies will occur with female teens taking their mother’s
prescriptions? How many will choose to NOT to undergo abortion?
6) DIABETIC BENEFITS: BELVIQ WINS. Due to its 0.9% reduction in hemoglobin
a1C levels, and 27% reduction in fasting blood sugar levels, BELVIQ will
likely become first line therapy in most Type II diabetics.
7) MEDICO-LEGAL RISKS TO THE PRESCRIBER: BELVIQ WINS. QSYMIA IS TOO
DANGEROUS TO BE FIRST LINE.
8) COST TO PATIENT OR THEIR INSURANCE COMPANY: BELVIQ WINS. BELVIQ requires
little follow up. On the other hand, someone will have to pay for QSYMIA’s
labwork, frequent doctor visits, cardiac monitoring, blood pregnancy testing
, and mail order postage many times a year. All this costs money. Qsymia
will be MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE to take. Which medication will likely be an
approved formulary medication in the future for managed care? It won’t be
Qsymia I promise you.
So there you have it…..BELVIQ IS THE CLEAR WINNER
From Doctor Gazoo99 | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 38 留记录: 市场价买了30捆7月的靠, 后续再进, 静等好消息...
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| A**X
发帖数: 1825 | 39 靠啥价得说说，不然部理解啊
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 留记录: 市场价买了30捆7月的靠, 后续再进, 静等好消息...
:
: will
: 盘"
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 40 I am the only one who bought at market price, and down over 5% right away...
.you will find it there :)
Please don't follow me, you can get it cheaper if you like it, I just
started doing options a week ago, worse than amateur....just used a bit of
money I made today (thank you, man! you know whom I am talking about when
you read this), so even all lost, I can still sleep well, eat well.....
Why did you reject my letter to you box??????
【在 A**X 的大作中提到】
: 靠啥价得说说，不然部理解啊
| | | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 41 To me, this should be another turn around point (ER for last quarter, this
was what I said you could get cheaper price if you like it), you might
hardly see its price back to 6 again....
I just read through this seeking alpha article with the title: Future Sales
Of Arena Pharmaceuticals' Belviq: Let's Make Some Informed, Quantitative
Predictions Using Expected Value
If you are interested, read through the link below, the comments are very
interesting as well, esp. on the short ratio one, considering the price
up today...:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2062393-future-sales-of-arena-p
Happy fighting :)
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 42 Script numbers by m_yossi attached...
TV ad will be on in April, end of April, a jump in script numbers is
expected, and so does the pps....not hopefully but apparently!!! NO WORRY,
MENGER!!!!
Also the results of P/L combination should be out soon after the TV ad (12
weeks trial), and does not need FDA approval, could be widely accepted by
doctors in their prescription....
YMYD
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 43 今天有人在收"谷子", 尤其是在盘尾, 第一次看到,真奇妙-------心急还不得不慢行..
....早知如此, 何必当初......
偶痴人说梦啊, 股多憋的, 当笑话看吧......
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 44 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
分析):
1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
close in a year, what a joke)
6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
, up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
product. even catch up in script numbers, at least 2 years away...
7. effect of recent adding of sale force (to 400 from 200)
8. GSK买断传闻 by 版上的股友 wstlykm (wstlykm) (GSK收购ARNA的消息 link: http://www.mitbbs.com/mitbbs_article_t.php?board=Stock&gid=35373541&ftype=0)
By the way, this is one of the stocks I planned to gamble with professor for
mid to long term, he is great, I learned a lot from him, thanks, professor
for reminding me how to be a great member in this 股版!
本想用来回下帖, 为供多人参考, 也是响应教授号召, 在此新贴...欢迎探讨, 争论,
那个猪头之流换个马甲也欢迎, 注意用词, 小心版主拍您.....
YMYD!!!
原帖: 同主题阅读：看起来大牛们只能晒W2或股票账户才能震慑众青蛙了
LINK: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/35376627.html
方向的，赶紧割。
发信人: pineapplePie (RNN), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 看起来大牛们只能晒W2或股票账户才能震慑众青蛙了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 16 13:04:24 2014, 美东)
炒股炒成股东，泡妞泡成老公。。。是不情愿的被捂啊，大牛。。。压了我多少资金啊
。。。苦了自知啊。。。 | m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 45
will
盘"
不管咋说，减肥药没啥吸引力阿。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 46 没啥吸引力???? Do you know how much is the market? US is the No.2 in
obesity, next to Mexico, 1/3 of american are obesed based on BMI...bla bla
bla....whatever....I don't want to copy/paste what people said everywhere
else, just point out one down side that the number of obesity seeking for
medical treatment may not be as much as someone claimed, but still....
billions of dollars market......see how many Chinese are getting obesied now
? 没啥吸引力????
Also when VVUS first approved, up to over 20, when ARNA approved, up to over
12...all due to the expectation of the market, 没啥吸引力????
Most of the up/down so far are by 庄稼人．．．now the selling of great
product are out of their control...that is why I prefer ARNA more than OREX
in a long run, OREX is still under their control...
您一定很苗条．．．饱汉子不知饿汉子饥啊．．．．：）
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: will
: 盘"
: 不管咋说，减肥药没啥吸引力阿。
| w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 47 说的很好，但你忘了GSK买断传闻了，其实这家确实值得买断
如果我是GSK的老总，我也会买断它的 | i********c
发帖数: 962 | 48 不错的分析。谢谢楼主
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 49
now
over
还是没啥吸引力。这个真的是病？不是吃出来的？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 没啥吸引力???? Do you know how much is the market? US is the No.2 in
: obesity, next to Mexico, 1/3 of american are obesed based on BMI...bla bla
: bla....whatever....I don't want to copy/paste what people said everywhere
: else, just point out one down side that the number of obesity seeking for
: medical treatment may not be as much as someone claimed, but still....
: billions of dollars market......see how many Chinese are getting obesied now
: ? 没啥吸引力????
: Also when VVUS first approved, up to over 20, when ARNA approved, up to over
: 12...all due to the expectation of the market, 没啥吸引力????
: Most of the up/down so far are by 庄稼人．．．now the selling of great
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 50 To me, it is less likely by GSK if ARNA is ready to sell....but so far,
Eisai had put a lot of money in it and not much back yet, so IF it is really
GSK, they would have to pay at least 20 or more a share....even $10 is
ridiculous....
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 说的很好，但你忘了GSK买断传闻了，其实这家确实值得买断
: 如果我是GSK的老总，我也会买断它的
| | | m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 51
really
这股的risk是啥？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: To me, it is less likely by GSK if ARNA is ready to sell....but so far,
: Eisai had put a lot of money in it and not much back yet, so IF it is really
: GSK, they would have to pay at least 20 or more a share....even $10 is
: ridiculous....
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 52 这个真的是病？
Unfortunately, I have to say yes, or at least a "disease state" and closely
related to diabetes, heard diseases....I remember there is a recent news
about it officially, who would like to post the link if you have time?
thanks.
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: really
: 这股的risk是啥？
| j*******7
发帖数: 349 | 53 x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: really
: 这股的risk是啥？
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 54 If you went through the history, you would know that the basher could do
anything they could to save their ass...at this stage, only one case---
someone died due to use of ARNA drug which elicit an extensive investigation
....from the years of clinical trail and on the market since last June, not
happen yet, so less likely. I could not figure out whatelse the basher could
do at this stage---more depend on the script numbers which is more
controlled by the insurance...bla, bla..bla..
The other is some other companies have a better one than ARNA's (theirs are
far from perfect)...at least I could not see it happening within 1-2 years,
I mean get FDA approved and drugs on the market...
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: really
: 这股的risk是啥？
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 55 You are absolutely right...
Good life habit, exercise...have been known and educated for several decades
, but the obesity rate has been increasing annually or even daily...
It is really easy to remember one word a day, has anyone done it so far for
more than a couple of months or years???? so...theory is one thing, the
reality is another...
【在 j*******7 的大作中提到】
: x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
: let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
: 靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
: 生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
: 以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
| y*****g
发帖数: 521 | 56 REALLY??
这个好！就应该有这种保险，一周两次就报销，两次以下就自费。督促我这种懒人健身。
我以为保险都越来越烂了呢。谁出的这么好的idea!
比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
【在 j*******7 的大作中提到】
: x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
: let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
: 靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
: 生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
: 以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 57
investigation
not
could
are
,
晕倒。你竟然看不到risk了。
药如果卖的不如预期好就完了吧。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: If you went through the history, you would know that the basher could do
: anything they could to save their ass...at this stage, only one case---
: someone died due to use of ARNA drug which elicit an extensive investigation
: ....from the years of clinical trail and on the market since last June, not
: happen yet, so less likely. I could not figure out whatelse the basher could
: do at this stage---more depend on the script numbers which is more
: controlled by the insurance...bla, bla..bla..
: The other is some other companies have a better one than ARNA's (theirs are
: far from perfect)...at least I could not see it happening within 1-2 years,
: I mean get FDA approved and drugs on the market...
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 58 Also most of the obesity people are poor, unfortunately---they eat too much
fast food like xxx.......most of them could not afford 去健身房, as an
alternative, they have more sex, which results in more kids and more poor...
but fortunately, most of them are more happier than those middle class like
us, or even those rich people, which make them more obesity---bad circle. so
the sales are mostly depending on insurance....that is why the recent news
are important, but the basher still want to collect more shares before the
script numbers fly..., I guess.....
【在 j*******7 的大作中提到】
: x谢谢分享。减肥在美国确实是大问题。obama老婆作为第一夫人搞得项目就是一个叫
: let's move 的号召减肥的全民动员。 但是我觉得减肥药并不是一个好方向。减肥主要
: 靠预防而不是治疗。热点是obesity prevention， not treatment。 也就是提倡健康
: 生活方式。比方说现在大部分的医疗保险可以报销去健身房的费用，如果你一周去两次
: 以上。所以虽然说obesity是大问题，减肥药不一定是政治正确的出路
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 59
much
..
like
so
news
‘ most of the obesity people are poor,’我总觉得这个就是个risk。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: Also most of the obesity people are poor, unfortunately---they eat too much
: fast food like xxx.......most of them could not afford 去健身房, as an
: alternative, they have more sex, which results in more kids and more poor...
: but fortunately, most of them are more happier than those middle class like
: us, or even those rich people, which make them more obesity---bad circle. so
: the sales are mostly depending on insurance....that is why the recent news
: are important, but the basher still want to collect more shares before the
: script numbers fly..., I guess.....
| y*****g
发帖数: 521 | 60 能请问楼主的ARNA是什么时候买的吗？预期多少？ | | | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 61 Yes, that is my point: the insurance news, the incoming TV ad, the added
work force....
您是一年被蛇咬, 十年怕井绳啊．．．哪只该死的小药股, 我替您粥它.．．：）
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: much
: ..
: like
: so
: news
: ‘ most of the obesity people are poor,’我总觉得这个就是个risk。
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 62
我其实还没被咬泥，不过过list的时候，每每见到小妖的疯狂。仗未打，胆已怯。
我想问个问题。一般来讲FDA一prove，就有个大gap，这个gap的大小可以预测一些吗？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: Yes, that is my point: the insurance news, the incoming TV ad, the added
: work force....
: 您是一年被蛇咬, 十年怕井绳啊．．．哪只该死的小药股, 我替您粥它.．．：）
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 63 By common sense, what is the most important in the US?
Answer: VOTES!!!!!
How that connected to poor? to insurance? to medical bill? to ARNA? to our
portfolio? to our life????
Man, common sense can fly anywhere :)
Got to go, party time, will answer your further questions when I am back....
,
Oh, man, I have been typing since this morning, buy still not in Chinese----
I should have done more exercise than taking obesity drugs :)
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: 我其实还没被咬泥，不过过list的时候，每每见到小妖的疯狂。仗未打，胆已怯。
: 我想问个问题。一般来讲FDA一prove，就有个大gap，这个gap的大小可以预测一些吗？
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 64
我的common sense 是挣穷人的钱难。
..
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: By common sense, what is the most important in the US?
: Answer: VOTES!!!!!
: How that connected to poor? to insurance? to medical bill? to ARNA? to our
: portfolio? to our life????
: Man, common sense can fly anywhere :)
: Got to go, party time, will answer your further questions when I am back....
: ,
: Oh, man, I have been typing since this morning, buy still not in Chinese----
: I should have done more exercise than taking obesity drugs :)
| t*******h
发帖数: 409 | 65 这个要赞
也留意过一段时间，后来就没follow了
她的revenue怎么样？
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| b*d
发帖数: 3069 | 66 为啥VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug?
我印象中这家减的更多
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| t*******h
发帖数: 409 | 67 In the second quarter of 2013, Arena recognized $1.3 million in net product
sales, which is 31.5% of Eisai's net product sales of BELVIQ.
In the third quarter of 2013, Arena recognized 31.5% of Eisai's net product
sales (which were $5.4 million), or $1.7 million,
sales 5.4M/Q 也太少了， but ~30% increase by Q is impressive
看下一个Q怎么样吧
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 这个要赞
: 也留意过一段时间，后来就没follow了
: 她的revenue怎么样？
:
: will
: 盘"
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 68 Actually it is easy to make money from the poor, since those money are not
directly out of the poor's pocket but from the government, which were mainly
from the tax of the middle class like you and me....what can we do?_____win
big from the stock market? :)
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: 我的common sense 是挣穷人的钱难。
: ..
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 69 Not as expected since they had set it too high and are getting more
realistic now...
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 这个要赞
: 也留意过一段时间，后来就没follow了
: 她的revenue怎么样？
:
: will
: 盘"
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 70
mainly
win
poor的会那末在意减肥吗？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: Actually it is easy to make money from the poor, since those money are not
: directly out of the poor's pocket but from the government, which were mainly
: from the tax of the middle class like you and me....what can we do?_____win
: big from the stock market? :)
| | | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 71 In a word, side effect, power struggling, and partially loss of interest
from the street...3CEOs in a month...can you believe it? First manhaton
with 10% of the company shares grap power but.....you can read all those
ugly stories if you are interested, I might not remember all those numbers
correctly, just ugly fight inthe past half year,....
【在 b*d 的大作中提到】
: 为啥VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug?
: 我印象中这家减的更多
:
: will
: 盘"
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 72 In the US, the most I have heard is "We are all equal...."
They want to live as long as we want, and they don't want to develop
diabetes or heart diseases later on due to obesity....as long as their
insurance cover most of the cost...they should...
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: mainly
: win
: poor的会那末在意减肥吗？
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 73
hope you are right。
药股的起伏与大势关联大吗？
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: In the US, the most I have heard is "We are all equal...."
: They want to live as long as we want, and they don't want to develop
: diabetes or heart diseases later on due to obesity....as long as their
: insurance cover most of the cost...they should...
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 74 From what I had experienced in the past 1-2 years, mostly yes, but not
always, sometimes opposites, I don't know, such question should go to
Fengyun or longlaoshi, they know much much more and better than me, I have
not been in the stock market very long and only a couple of months here...
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: hope you are right。
: 药股的起伏与大势关联大吗？
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 75
嗯。好，等我开始炒作了就向几位大牛请教。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: From what I had experienced in the past 1-2 years, mostly yes, but not
: always, sometimes opposites, I don't know, such question should go to
: Fengyun or longlaoshi, they know much much more and better than me, I have
: not been in the stock market very long and only a couple of months here...
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 76 I am collecting data and working on such kind of issues now...but progress
very slow due to busy schedule and some technical issues, also too much time
typing here :(...would like to share with you once done--Once done, you
send me the company name, I will give you the prediction :)
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: 嗯。好，等我开始炒作了就向几位大牛请教。
| m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 77
time
太好了。我要开始做homework了。先学习准备一下。
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: I am collecting data and working on such kind of issues now...but progress
: very slow due to busy schedule and some technical issues, also too much time
: typing here :(...would like to share with you once done--Once done, you
: send me the company name, I will give you the prediction :)
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 78 Before anyone started to load ARNA, I would highly recommend for a better
timing, consider the Q4 report which covers several holidays...
just a reminding...
Good luck!
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
:
: time
: 太好了。我要开始做homework了。先学习准备一下。
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 79 Here's an interesting post I've found:
A DOCTOR SPEAKS RE: BELVIQ SHORTS CAN PASS ON THIS
PHYSICIAN: EIGHT REASONS IN FAVOR OF BELVIQ
I am a physician, long practicing, experienced, well read in research
literature, and it’s time we provide everyone with our thoughts. Here are
EIGHT REASONS BELVIQ IS PREFERRED FIRST LINE.
Everything else is media hype or misinformed HF/ MM, who could give a flip
about real patients.
The sacred Hippocratic Oath all we took upon med school graduation requires
us to put our patent's welfare first, balancing risks vs. potential benefits
for each.
No one treatment plan fits all. After extensive review and debate among us,
almost all of my local colleagues will start with BELVIQ. Why?
1) PATIENT SAFETY: BELVIQ WINS. Belviq has no severe REMS unlike Q. There is
no known teratogenic potential of cleft lip or palate defects, and no known
risk of amphetamine related morbidity, such as heart attack, cardiac
arrhythmias, or strokes.
2) WEIGHT LOSS EFFICACY: EQUIVALENT. Belviq and Qsymia are roughly
equivalent at 8% after 12 months in placebo adjusted studies with FDA
approved lower Q dosage. Higher Q dosage was NOT approved. Please do not try
to fool anyone unless you have really digested the real figures from BLOOM
AND BLOSSOM.
3) SIDE EFFECTS: BELVIQ WINS. BELVIQ confers on its users no feelings of
nervousness or feeling “wired:” Our patients do not desire this feeling.
4). PATIENT AND PRESCRIBER CONVENIENCE: BELVIQ WINS. Simple Rx, and get it
filled at local pharmacy. Qsymia requires labwork, frequent patient visits
to doctors, cardiac monitoring, blood pregnancy testing, which will have to
be done monthly. Any physician who prescribes Q will have his or her
schedule jammed up with Q surveillance, reducing physician availability to
others who require evaluation. The patient will have to have their Rx filled
at a mail order pharmacy.
5) REDUCTION IN ORAL CONTRACEPTIVE EFFECTIVENESS: BELVIQ WINS. BELVIQ causes
no reduction in contraceptive effectiveness. QSYMIA reduces birth control
pill effectiveness due to its hepatic topirmamine metabolism. How many
unintended pregnancies will occur with female teens taking their mother’s
prescriptions? How many will choose to NOT to undergo abortion?
6) DIABETIC BENEFITS: BELVIQ WINS. Due to its 0.9% reduction in hemoglobin
a1C levels, and 27% reduction in fasting blood sugar levels, BELVIQ will
likely become first line therapy in most Type II diabetics.
7) MEDICO-LEGAL RISKS TO THE PRESCRIBER: BELVIQ WINS. QSYMIA IS TOO
DANGEROUS TO BE FIRST LINE.
8) COST TO PATIENT OR THEIR INSURANCE COMPANY: BELVIQ WINS. BELVIQ requires
little follow up. On the other hand, someone will have to pay for QSYMIA’s
labwork, frequent doctor visits, cardiac monitoring, blood pregnancy testing
, and mail order postage many times a year. All this costs money. Qsymia
will be MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE to take. Which medication will likely be an
approved formulary medication in the future for managed care? It won’t be
Qsymia I promise you.
So there you have it…..BELVIQ IS THE CLEAR WINNER
From Doctor Gazoo99 | p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 80 留记录: 市场价买了30捆7月的靠, 后续再进, 静等好消息...
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| | | A**X
发帖数: 1825 | 81 靠啥价得说说，不然部理解啊
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 留记录: 市场价买了30捆7月的靠, 后续再进, 静等好消息...
:
: will
: 盘"
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 82 I am the only one who bought at market price, and down over 5% right away...
.you will find it there :)
Please don't follow me, you can get it cheaper if you like it, I just
started doing options a week ago, worse than amateur....just used a bit of
money I made today (thank you, man! you know whom I am talking about when
you read this), so even all lost, I can still sleep well, eat well.....
Why did you reject my letter to you box??????
【在 A**X 的大作中提到】
: 靠啥价得说说，不然部理解啊
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 83 To me, this should be another turn around point (ER for last quarter, this
was what I said you could get cheaper price if you like it), you might
hardly see its price back to 6 again....
I just read through this seeking alpha article with the title: Future Sales
Of Arena Pharmaceuticals' Belviq: Let's Make Some Informed, Quantitative
Predictions Using Expected Value
If you are interested, read through the link below, the comments are very
interesting as well, esp. on the short ratio one, considering the price
up today...:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2062393-future-sales-of-arena-p
Happy fighting :)
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 84 Script numbers by m_yossi attached...
TV ad will be on in April, end of April, a jump in script numbers is
expected, and so does the pps....not hopefully but apparently!!! NO WORRY,
MENGER!!!!
Also the results of P/L combination should be out soon after the TV ad (12
weeks trial), and does not need FDA approval, could be widely accepted by
doctors in their prescription....
YMYD
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 85 今天有人在收"谷子", 尤其是在盘尾, 第一次看到,真奇妙-------心急还不得不慢行..
....早知如此, 何必当初......
偶痴人说梦啊, 股多憋的, 当笑话看吧......
will
盘"
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯, 继续捂, 直到成仙儿....预期快...开始...了, 原因如下(听教授的, 多发好贴带
: 分析):
: 1. 保险越来越好 (recent news), 直接影响销售额 (script numbers)...
: 2. 就要上的电视广告(TV ad), 直接影响销售额
: 3. 在几个外国的审批进展, Mexico, Brazil, Canada...
: 4. new progress in their pipeline, such as L/P combination results...
: 5. short squeeze any time (someone here used to say confidently that it will
: close in a year, what a joke)
: 6. VVUS lost competition at least for obesity drug, OREX just another "拼盘"
: , up/down by the street to collect money from little frogs, not by its
| p**********e
发帖数: 703 | 86
时间过的真快, 七月就要来了....
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
: 留记录: 市场价买了30捆7月的靠, 后续再进, 静等好消息...
:
: will
: 盘"
| E**********r
发帖数: 2743 | 87 Good call on ARNA! Congrats!
【在 p**********e 的大作中提到】
:
: 时间过的真快, 七月就要来了....
| w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 88 不知道搞什么鬼，拉起来跌回去，拉起来跌回去
感觉像是有人啃蚂蚁肉，今天盘尾又莫名地暴
拉起来，好像是有FUND出手 | V**n
发帖数: 560 | 89 今天盘尾应该是对下周一 conf. 的一个预期
请参考 Spencer (yes, THE Spencer) 今天下午在SeekingAlpha 发的小结
Script sales up 6% week over week.
Arena confirms sales reps to be at 600 by July 1, 2014.
Arena announces that insurance coverage is at 60% of covered lives.
the new prescriptions increase by about 18% to 20%, while refills were very
flat.
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 不知道搞什么鬼，拉起来跌回去，拉起来跌回去
: 感觉像是有人啃蚂蚁肉，今天盘尾又莫名地暴
: 拉起来，好像是有FUND出手
| w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 90 这次放量了，以前都是无量上涨然后跌下，这次算是个新信号
我也被他们这种无耻地玩法搞了一下，割了一半肉喂狼，这次
是不是真的狼来了
very
【在 V**n 的大作中提到】
: 今天盘尾应该是对下周一 conf. 的一个预期
: 请参考 Spencer (yes, THE Spencer) 今天下午在SeekingAlpha 发的小结
: Script sales up 6% week over week.
: Arena confirms sales reps to be at 600 by July 1, 2014.
: Arena announces that insurance coverage is at 60% of covered lives.
: the new prescriptions increase by about 18% to 20%, while refills were very
: flat.
|
|
