a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 1 11月30日， IMF表决人民币能否加入SDR一揽子货币。
表决完了，人民币汇率肯定他妈的要大变。
进不进sdr，估计都要松口气，要跌个5%的，最近党国撑得有点太辛苦。
11月30日到12月11日，巴黎气候大会。
中国和美国都在桌子底下谈得差不多了。
我的估计是，中国在减排上让步来换取美帝在IMF的SDR 一揽子货币的支持。
如果中国的人民币，进SDR不成，那么，中国还是在气候大会掀桌子。
如果中国的人民币，进了SDR，估计，中国在气候大会就会老实很多。
我感觉这一次气候大会，搞不好中国要上西方的当。
12月中旬左右，叶老太要宣布加息的决定。妈逼的，狼来了喊了好多次，
不知道这次到底是不是真的要来。都你妈七老八十了，还这么磨磨唧唧，
真你妈操蛋。
美元一加息，人民币又他妈要跪。
这三件事，在圣诞节前就会有个眉目，要是全都按照美帝的意思办了，
我估计美帝的股市要牛逼，要三花聚顶！ | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 2 什么是美国的意思呢？
1. 让人民币进SDR，先送点钱把人民币的门骗开，让人民币自由化，市场化。
后面好方便美国人的金融财团进行大突击。
2. 利用中国急于加入sdr的心理，在气候大会上狠狠砸中国的竹杠，拿枷锁把
中国套牢。
3. 美元升息，挤兑人民币。
这三样要是都成了，美股的圣诞节攻势，值得期待，收复18000点很有希望。
否则的话，这个圣诞节搞不好要学国民党不断转进。 | h**6
发帖数: 4160 | | C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 4 都让你想到了MM怎么玩儿？
【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 11月30日， IMF表决人民币能否加入SDR一揽子货币。
: 表决完了，人民币汇率肯定他妈的要大变。
: 进不进sdr，估计都要松口气，要跌个5%的，最近党国撑得有点太辛苦。
: 11月30日到12月11日，巴黎气候大会。
: 中国和美国都在桌子底下谈得差不多了。
: 我的估计是，中国在减排上让步来换取美帝在IMF的SDR 一揽子货币的支持。
: 如果中国的人民币，进SDR不成，那么，中国还是在气候大会掀桌子。
: 如果中国的人民币，进了SDR，估计，中国在气候大会就会老实很多。
: 我感觉这一次气候大会，搞不好中国要上西方的当。
: 12月中旬左右，叶老太要宣布加息的决定。妈逼的，狼来了喊了好多次，
| a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 5 我的预测基本验证了。
1. 第一步， 送中国进SDR， 给中国面子。
已经完成！
2. 第二步， 巴黎气候大会，把中国制造锁进笼子里，
即将完成。
这一步的铺垫工作，前面已经做好了，美国拿SDR来来换
关中国的笼子。
美帝的算盘也打到了。
3. 第三步，美元加息
气候大会搞完，把中国搞定之后， 就可以正式加息了，
开始新的一轮进攻了。
这个连环套，完全按着美国人想的来走了。
我看中国很危险。 | p****p
发帖数: 540 | 6 楼主是啥专业的，知识面太全了，牛。
【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 我的预测基本验证了。
: 1. 第一步， 送中国进SDR， 给中国面子。
: 已经完成！
: 2. 第二步， 巴黎气候大会，把中国制造锁进笼子里，
: 即将完成。
: 这一步的铺垫工作，前面已经做好了，美国拿SDR来来换
: 关中国的笼子。
: 美帝的算盘也打到了。
: 3. 第三步，美元加息
: 气候大会搞完，把中国搞定之后， 就可以正式加息了，
| a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 7 三花聚顶的三花， 已经开了两朵了，
1. 中国人民币加入SDR
2. 美元加息
就差第三朵，巴黎气候大会的具有执行力的协议出来了。
总体而言， 美国股市长期向好，美股的圣诞节攻势即将开启！ | w*********g
发帖数: 2330 | 8 既然人民币已经进入SDR了，那么中国在巴黎气候大会上就没必要妥协了，sdr难道还能
反悔不行？
就说内部压力，人民政府各级省政府不支持，大家还没有定论，抱歉啊。
【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 11月30日， IMF表决人民币能否加入SDR一揽子货币。
: 表决完了，人民币汇率肯定他妈的要大变。
: 进不进sdr，估计都要松口气，要跌个5%的，最近党国撑得有点太辛苦。
: 11月30日到12月11日，巴黎气候大会。
: 中国和美国都在桌子底下谈得差不多了。
: 我的估计是，中国在减排上让步来换取美帝在IMF的SDR 一揽子货币的支持。
: 如果中国的人民币，进SDR不成，那么，中国还是在气候大会掀桌子。
: 如果中国的人民币，进了SDR，估计，中国在气候大会就会老实很多。
: 我感觉这一次气候大会，搞不好中国要上西方的当。
: 12月中旬左右，叶老太要宣布加息的决定。妈逼的，狼来了喊了好多次，
| a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 9 人民币加入SDR明年底才正式生效，
你敢跟黑老大耍心眼？
你觉得土共有这个胆子吗？你觉得黑老大是吃素的吗？
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
: 既然人民币已经进入SDR了，那么中国在巴黎气候大会上就没必要妥协了，sdr难道还能
: 反悔不行？
: 就说内部压力，人民政府各级省政府不支持，大家还没有定论，抱歉啊。
| a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 11 发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 某人讲“所有预测都应验了”，谈谈预测
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Dec 14 12:42:33 2015, 美东)
我一共预测了三条，
1. 人民币加入SDR
2. 巴黎气候大会协议通过 （没有像哥本哈根气候大会那个样子）
3. 美元12月加息
这就是我的“所有的预测”，你不要断章取义。 | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 12 美联储正式加息。
Federal Reserve raises key interest rate for first time in nearly a decade
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/16/federal-reserve-
likely-to-raise-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/
Federal Reserve raises key interest rate for first time in nearly a decade
Resize Text Print Article Comments 0
By Ylan Q. Mui December 16 at 2:00 PM
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (Photo by Matt McClain/ The Washington
Post)
The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to raise interest rates and begin
pulling back its unprecedented support for the American economy, ending an
unprecedented era of easy money that helped save the nation from another
Great Depression but has yet to produce a full-throttled recovery.
The unanimous decision will nudge the central bank's benchmark interest rate
up from nearly zero to about one quarter of one percent. The move is small,
but it amounts to a vote of confidence that the American economy -- dogged
by volatile oil prices, a slowdown in China and weak global growth -- will
stand resilient. But the Fed also pledged to wean the nation off its
stimulus slowly, an acknowledgement that further progress is not guaranteed
and that the central bank is operating in uncharted territory.
"With gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic
activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market
indicators will continue to strengthen," the Fed said in its official policy
statement.
Still, the move could spell the end of the rock-bottom rates on mortgages
that spurred a refinancing boom and supported higher home prices. The cost
of an auto loan is also expected to rise, dimming one of the brightest spots
in the economy. One recent analysis predicted a 1 percent increase in
interest rates could slow car sales by more than 3 percent.
Savers, however, may finally start to feel some relief after years of meager
returns on investments in safe assets such as certificates of deposits and
money market funds. Still, analysts cautioned that any improvement would
likely be slow.
Returns "may not improve quickly enough from the perspective of those
individuals who have already suffered through more than a half decade of
historically low, and often inadequate, fixed income yields," said Michael
Thompson, chairman of S&P Investment Advisory Services.
[A slim majority of Fed officials was open to a rate hike in September.
Yellen tipped the scales.]
The Fed slashed the target for its benchmark interest rate all the way to
zero in late 2008, an historic move aimed at arresting the economic downturn
after the implosion of the subprime housing market toppled Wall Street
giants and shook the world’s faith in America’s financial system. The
unemployment rate was headed up to 10 percent as hundreds of thousands of
workers lost their jobs each month.
Now, the jobless rate has fallen by half, and official Fed forecasts
released Wednesday show it believes unemployment will dip to a median of 4.7
percent near year before leveling off. The economy has added jobs for 69
consecutive months, the longest streak on record. The broadest measure of
the recovery’s health -- the pace of the expansion -- has averaged a solid,
albeit unspectacular, 2 percent over the past five years. Officials
predicted it would pick up to a median of 2.4 percent in 2016.
For the nation’s economic stewards, it has all finally added up to
convincing evidence that the country is no longer in crisis and the recovery
has taken root.
Increasing rates would be a testament “to how far our economy has come in
recovering from the effects of the financial crisis and the Great Recession,
” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said during testimony on Capitol Hill earlier this
month. “In that sense, it is a day that I expect we all are looking
forward to.”
The last time the Fed raised interest rates — in 2006 — the iPhone had not
been introduced. Many of the young adults hunting for their first homes or
staffing Wall Street’s trading desks have never experienced a rate increase
, and it remains to be seen how they will adjust to this new environment.
The central bank’s vote Wednesday technically sets a range of one-quarter
to one-half of a percent for its influential rate. In addition, the Fed is
using complex new financial tools to implement the rate hike, creating
another layer of uncertainty.
"It all about the speed at which rates rise and where they settle," said
Luke Bartholomew, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. "It will
be very steady but probably not as steady as markets are expecting. The U.S.
, and world, has taken a very long time to get over the financial crisis,
which is why interest rates have been so low for so long."
[This is what will happen after the Federal Reserve hikes rates.]
In many ways, the recovery still seems to be falling short. The pace of
economic expansion remains significantly slower than it was before the
financial crisis. Wage growth has been stagnant, and many unemployed workers
have given up hope of ever finding a job.
But Fed officials believe rectifying those problems is the responsibility of
lawmakers in Washington, not monetary policymakers. In the aftermath of the
financial crisis, the central bank often expressed frustration with the
political gridlock that led to across-the-board federal spending cuts, a
government shutdown and the threat of breaching the nation’s debt limit.
The ensuing economic damage made the Fed reluctant to withdraw its support
sooner.
At the same time, lawmakers have ramped up criticism of the Fed as it tested
the boundaries of its powers. In addition to cutting its target rate to
zero, the Fed pumped roughly $3.5 trillion into the economy, buying up long-
term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. House Republicans passed a
bill last month that attempts to rein in the central bank by requiring it to
follow prescribed rules for setting interest rates and explain why when it
doesn’t.
“This is not your father’s Fed,” said Texas Republican Rep. Jeb
Hensarling, who heads the House Financial Services committee, after the bill
passed. “The Federal Reserve has morphed into a government institution
whose unconventional activities and vastly expanded powers would hardly be
recognized by those who drafted the original act.”
On the other side of the aisle, some Democrats are now worried the Fed is
moving too soon. Michigan Rep. John Conyers is sponsoring a proposal that
would make reaching a jobless rate of 4 percent one of the Fed’s core goals.
“It is unacceptable for any branch of government to take any action to slow
our economy before all Americans have the opportunity to experience the
jobs recovery and meaningful wage growth,” he said in a statement.
The Fed’s decision was explicitly telegraphed and widely anticipated. Over
the past year, Yellen began signaling that the central bank would raise
rates in 2015 -- but didn’t specify when. Moving too soon risked
undercutting the recovery’s momentum, but waiting too long could stoke
dangerous financial bubbles or force the Fed to act more aggressively down
the road.
Within the central bank, its 17 top officials were divided. Richmond Fed
President Jeffrey Lacker and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester were
ready to hike as early as this summer. But two members of the Fed’s
Washington-based board of governors, Lael Brainard and Dan Tarrullo, along
with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, argued for waiting until 2016.
The economy was also sending mixed signals. Though unemployment was falling
and hiring was strong, inflation remained stubbornly low. Falling oil prices
and a stronger dollar were the main culprits, but officials worried low
inflation might also signal deeper weaknesses in the economy.
Then in late August, new fears emerged over the extent of China’s slowdown
amid plummeting commodity prices and wild swings in financial markets. That
prompted the Fed to stay its hand in a nail-biter meeting in September.
But as the global outlook stabilized, officials began more assertively
declaring the U.S. economy was ready and targeted their last meeting of the
year to make the momentous decision. On Wednesday, two Fed officials still
indicated they belived the central bank should delay. But there were no
dissents on the vote to raise rates.
“We must also take into account the well-documented lags in the effects of
monetary policy” Yellen said in her testimony earlier this month. If the
Fed delayed too long, “we would likely end up having to tighten policy
relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting.”
The central bank emphasized Wednesday that it expects to make future rate
hikes gradually, in part to assess the impact they are having on the economy
. Yellen has said the Fed will consider both "realized and expected"
movements on inflation, the labor market and financial and international
developments in deciding when to make its next moves.
Fed officials Wednesday projected the benchmark rate would rise to a median
of 1.4 percent by the end of 2016, suggesting a hike at every other meeting
next year. The forecast for the following two years dipped slightly from
what the central bank had predicted in the fall. The estimate of its target
rate dropped from 2.6 to 2.4 percent in 2017 and from 3.4 to 3.3 percent in
2018.
Economists, including those inside the central bank, are debating whether
rates will ever return to the their pre-crisis levels. The Fed's forecasts
show officials believe rates will eventually rise to 3.5 percent, below the
historical norm of 4 percent.
"This really isn't an end. It's a beginning,” said Tim Duy, a former
Treasury official and economics professor at the University of Oregon. "We
got into this. Now how are we going to get out?" |
|
