p****a
发帖数: 4829 | 1 Based on the past 40 years crude oil price history with adjusted inflation,
all cases of the previous crude oil prices were bottomed at 23-26 range (
inflation adjusted) except one case in 1998 when crude oil was bottomed
around 18 (inflation adjusted).
Since the Brent crude oil price has touched 27, it may be the bottom already
or we are just a few dollars away from the real bottom with 90% chance.
However, if this time is like 1998 then the bottom might be around 18-20
range (I will give 10% chance only to this case). BTW, I guess GS's $20 call
might be based on this worst case). | C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | | I***a
发帖数: 13467 | | n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 4 单看图， 这只是第二个V在找平衡点， if history repeats, things always get
worse before getting better, the real bottom is still nowhere. | n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 5 运气好的话， 会在27到35之间蹦跶一阵， 40有点遥不可期的样子。
底在哪里要看还有没有下一波下跌。 |
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