|
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x****y
发帖数: 1853 | 1 这才是真正的bearish信号。 跟最近的Baltic Dry Index一起看，recession 离我们不
远了。
Highlights (From Bloomberg)
The factory sector ended 2015 with a giant thud. Durable goods orders fell 5
.1 percent in December vs expectations for a 0.2 percent gain and a low-end
estimate of minus 3.0 percent. Aircraft orders didn't help but they weren't
the whole cause of the problem as ex-transportation orders fell 1.2 percent
vs expectations for no change and a low-end estimate of minus 0.4 percent.
Core capital goods, which exclude defense equipment and also aircraft, are
especially weak, down 4.3 percent following a 1.1 percent decline in
November. Shipments for core capital goods, which are an input into GDP,
slipped 0.2 percent following a downward revised 1.1 percent decline in
November (initially minus 0.4 percent).
Orders for civilian aircraft lead the dismal list, down 29 percent in
December. The other main subcomponent for transportation, motor vehicles,
also fell, down 0.4 percent in a reminder that vehicle sales were slowing at
year end. Capital goods industries show deep declines: machinery down 5.6
percent, computers down 8.7 percent, communications equipment down 21
percent, and fabricated metals down 0.5 percent.
Other readings include a surprising 2.2 percent monthly drop in total
shipments and a 0.5 percent drop in total unfilled orders. All this weakness
isn't a plus for inventories which rose 0.5 percent to lift the inventory-
to-shipments ratio sharply, to 1.69 from 1.64. The rise in inventories poses
a headwind to the sector and will dampen future shipments as well as
employment and is a reminder of the inventory warning in yesterday's FOMC
statement. | n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | | c**t
发帖数: 9197 | | c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 4 no, their hands are tied with the "good" job data (which is ironically a
lagging indicator)
【在 c**t 的大作中提到】
: fed 正好下台阶停止加息
| x****y
发帖数: 1853 | 5 CPI上不来，工厂没动力造东西。
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
: no, their hands are tied with the "good" job data (which is ironically a
: lagging indicator)
| c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 6 几天前的CPI不是挺好的么？CPI应该也是lagging的吧。
housing data看上去又很好，Fed真的要找借口不加息，也找不到啊。就像去年12月份
一样，他们把自己逼到墙角了。
按常理来说，job data consistently good -> good economy -> need to worry
about inflation (worry! how ironical, instead they are worrying about the
low inflation rate now) -> increase interest rate.
Yellen不加息，就是打自己耳光，这事她做不出来的。
【在 x****y 的大作中提到】
: CPI上不来，工厂没动力造东西。
| x****y
发帖数: 1853 | 7 现在美国工厂造得东西大部分都不是在美国卖的。 主要卖到中国的工厂设备或者飞
机等。中国不行这些order就下降。美国的消费者is the last one to feel the
pain.
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
: 几天前的CPI不是挺好的么？CPI应该也是lagging的吧。
: housing data看上去又很好，Fed真的要找借口不加息，也找不到啊。就像去年12月份
: 一样，他们把自己逼到墙角了。
: 按常理来说，job data consistently good -> good economy -> need to worry
: about inflation (worry! how ironical, instead they are worrying about the
: low inflation rate now) -> increase interest rate.
: Yellen不加息，就是打自己耳光，这事她做不出来的。
| c****l
发帖数: 1693 | 8 不知道叶大妈跟市场的沟通是不是出了问题，大家开始倾向于9月加一次息。大妈跟村
长一路货色，游手好闲不干正事。
【在 c**t 的大作中提到】
: fed 正好下台阶停止加息
| c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 9 现在太混乱了，数据都被cook得面目全非了。
照理说5%的unemployment rate是意味着full employment，那可是盛世的概念。但看看
现在的经济？
中国的低迷当然drag美国的经济，但也只是一小部分，美国对中国的出口比重有多大？
- small pie!
主要还是美国自己的问题，中国只是个容易找到的借口而已。
We are already in recession, OK?
Yellen是没有办法来及时得救市的，basically, they will declare recession after
6 months, by the time they won't have time to do any fixing before the
election => Trump will be the next president, mark my words.
【在 x****y 的大作中提到】
: 现在美国工厂造得东西大部分都不是在美国卖的。 主要卖到中国的工厂设备或者飞
: 机等。中国不行这些order就下降。美国的消费者is the last one to feel the
: pain.
| n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 10 Employment data lagging, 前一阵子那个ISM也很糟 | t***l
发帖数: 3644 | 11 [在 xpenny (少年阿里斯) 的大作中提到：]
：这才是真正的bearish信号。 跟最近的Baltic Dry Index一起看，recession 离我们
不远了。
：
：........... | x****y
发帖数: 1853 | 12 大盘跟油已经没关系了。或者从来没有直接联系过。之前就业数据不错，但滞后。 要
看经济的里子只能通过油价猜。油价低 hints weak demand。但还只是个hint。现在
weak demand被durable goods确认了。就不再是hint了。油作为demand预测器的作用到
此结束。倒是有可能会换成油跟大盘。
5
end
t
percent
【在 x****y 的大作中提到】
: 这才是真正的bearish信号。 跟最近的Baltic Dry Index一起看，recession 离我们不
: 远了。
: Highlights (From Bloomberg)
: The factory sector ended 2015 with a giant thud. Durable goods orders fell 5
: .1 percent in December vs expectations for a 0.2 percent gain and a low-end
: estimate of minus 3.0 percent. Aircraft orders didn't help but they weren't
: the whole cause of the problem as ex-transportation orders fell 1.2 percent
: vs expectations for no change and a low-end estimate of minus 0.4 percent.
: Core capital goods, which exclude defense equipment and also aircraft, are
: especially weak, down 4.3 percent following a 1.1 percent decline in
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
