a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 1 Regardless what happens on 4/17 in Doha, the oil price is going up gradually
and here is why.
The grand purpose of Saudi is to sell Aramco to diversify away from oil, and
the IPO was planned at the end of 2017 or early 2018. The oil price at that
time will have a direct effect on the valuation of the company, no matter
how you look at it, revenue, reserve, asset, cash flow etc.
In order for Saudi to achieve that goal, oil need to start moving very soon.
It took about 18 month to make everybody believe we are in a low oil price
for the long run and it will take about 18 month for everybody to believe
that the high oil price is here to stay.
If supply is still in excess, Saudi will propose to freeze the cap.
If Saudi is to against freezing the cap, it only means one thing and that is
we are already balanced and there are more rooms for Saudi to gain market
share. Remember, US production is dropping and Russia production is at
capacity. This is the perfect time to win the market share without put
pressure on the price. At the end of the day, Saudi's success will be judged
by how much Aramco is valued and how much money they can raise.
Isn't winning the market share the original reason why Saudi declared war on
American Shale industry? Now you know why!!! |
u******n
发帖数: 5727 | |
F****s
发帖数: 3761 | 3 这件事很复杂，不是一个因素决定的。
美国制裁俄罗斯的政治目标不变。 |
y********n
发帖数: 4452 | 4 油不会继续冲高的，$50最多了。因为美国石岩油虎视眈眈的盯着油价呢。一高就开动
了。 |
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 5 aramco谁将会是主力接盘？ 接盘的是不是希望油价低呀？ 好几T得国家级的来。
而且，这件事我怎么觉得沙特挺亏的
gradually
and
that
soon.
price
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Regardless what happens on 4/17 in Doha, the oil price is going up gradually
: and here is why.
: The grand purpose of Saudi is to sell Aramco to diversify away from oil, and
: the IPO was planned at the end of 2017 or early 2018. The oil price at that
: time will have a direct effect on the valuation of the company, no matter
: how you look at it, revenue, reserve, asset, cash flow etc.
: In order for Saudi to achieve that goal, oil need to start moving very soon.
: It took about 18 month to make everybody believe we are in a low oil price
: for the long run and it will take about 18 month for everybody to believe
: that the high oil price is here to stay.
|
u******n
发帖数: 5727 | 6 感觉油价高低不重要，重要的是从此以后谁对这个市场更有控制力了，显然opec要退后
了，美帝有前进了一步，土共还在看热闹捡便宜货。。 |
c***x
发帖数: 1922 | 7 显然因为美国反恐怖主义，加页岩油。石油价格中短期是有个铁顶的。
【在 u******n 的大作中提到】
: 感觉油价高低不重要，重要的是从此以后谁对这个市场更有控制力了，显然opec要退后
: 了，美帝有前进了一步，土共还在看热闹捡便宜货。。
|
t*******y
发帖数: 1289 | 8 我总觉得17号不会有什么实际的结果，但是它开启了一个新的OPEC联盟，没准就成为一
个定期的石油国家会议，成为一个新的解决能源市场分歧的方法。以后每半年来一次，
市场上下翻动，更符合各方利益吧。
可能想法太天真了。
看看今天拉美油国会议怎么样。 |
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 9 OPEC能团结一致保卫油价的愿景，在2008年油150时就听说过了。。。
【在 t*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我总觉得17号不会有什么实际的结果，但是它开启了一个新的OPEC联盟，没准就成为一
: 个定期的石油国家会议，成为一个新的解决能源市场分歧的方法。以后每半年来一次，
: 市场上下翻动，更符合各方利益吧。
: 可能想法太天真了。
: 看看今天拉美油国会议怎么样。
|
t*******y
发帖数: 1289 | 10 看17号具体的议题吧，感觉是一个机会。对非OPEC，一次可以来拉关系，建立组织的机
会，对OPEC，拉拢更多地人加入，不论怎么不团结，人多了力量大。当然，人多了，队
伍不好带。但是俄毛的领导下，有可能的。巴马文件这个时候泄露，也值得思考。 |
|
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 11 如果到50， 大家都发死了。死皮就是2250了。几乎所有的油气公司都出水了。
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 油不会继续冲高的，$50最多了。因为美国石岩油虎视眈眈的盯着油价呢。一高就开动
: 了。
|
w**********k
发帖数: 6250 | 12 50有点难吧，45就可以了
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 如果到50， 大家都发死了。死皮就是2250了。几乎所有的油气公司都出水了。
|
y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 13 厉害呀，有vision！
以后跟你混了。
gradually
and
that
soon.
price
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Regardless what happens on 4/17 in Doha, the oil price is going up gradually
: and here is why.
: The grand purpose of Saudi is to sell Aramco to diversify away from oil, and
: the IPO was planned at the end of 2017 or early 2018. The oil price at that
: time will have a direct effect on the valuation of the company, no matter
: how you look at it, revenue, reserve, asset, cash flow etc.
: In order for Saudi to achieve that goal, oil need to start moving very soon.
: It took about 18 month to make everybody believe we are in a low oil price
: for the long run and it will take about 18 month for everybody to believe
: that the high oil price is here to stay.
|
s***d
发帖数: 15421 | 14 veli veli lihai
gradually
and
that
soon.
price
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Regardless what happens on 4/17 in Doha, the oil price is going up gradually
: and here is why.
: The grand purpose of Saudi is to sell Aramco to diversify away from oil, and
: the IPO was planned at the end of 2017 or early 2018. The oil price at that
: time will have a direct effect on the valuation of the company, no matter
: how you look at it, revenue, reserve, asset, cash flow etc.
: In order for Saudi to achieve that goal, oil need to start moving very soon.
: It took about 18 month to make everybody believe we are in a low oil price
: for the long run and it will take about 18 month for everybody to believe
: that the high oil price is here to stay.
|
e******7
发帖数: 504 | 15 开会前庄家，也就是美帝早策划好了，借机套住小散，之前也是一直把消息做成
支配价格的因素，然后大家都认为信息很重要，最后上当一大片，这油价直奔下个月期
货价去了应该吧，但是量还在，应该也跑不到哪里去 |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 16 大牛过奖，我对你还是很敬仰的。
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 厉害呀，有vision！
: 以后跟你混了。
:
: gradually
: and
: that
: soon.
: price
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 17 小五过奖，你对油气的认识我一直洗耳恭听。
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: veli veli lihai
:
: gradually
: and
: that
: soon.
: price
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 18 大家这把发了没有？
【在 w**********k 的大作中提到】
: 50有点难吧，45就可以了
|
